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Snow growth looks solid, nice lift in the snow growth zone.. Should be a solid swath of .15-.35" qpf

Maybe end of January

Another day of model watching. The short range models look pretty good. The GFS is starting to go back and forth, and the Euro is being stubborn. Looks like a classic winter storm threat for NC with not knowing exactly what will happen until it does or doesn't happen.

Need to bump to FEB

made a thread to separate the Saturday and Sunday convo..

I think you could easily pick up 1-2” provided the QPF is there on Saturday.

Seems all we can muster up this season are these coating to 2" storms. Higher elevations favored, should be a a few hour period of moderate snow.. Timing differences with the steadiest snow, GFS is a bit earlier, EURO a bit later.. Looks like a snowy Saturday morning for most, earlier the better for accumulation potential down to the shore..

Glad I got a good nights sleep. 06z runs look tame to nothing.

Please send as many pics of the coating. From every angle. Deck, backyard, truck, street view. Whatever you can.

The probability that parts of the South, including Birmingham, Atlanta, Athens, and Mobile could see a light snowfall on Sunday has increased on the guidance. Snowfall amounts do not look excessive. This will likely be the major winter weather story this weekend. A shot of Arctic air could follow the snowfall.

Time to bow to the king again?

I would

Bump

Maybe being in phase 6 is the deathblow.

So I should hold my tee time on Monday?

you're in a fine spot for a couple assuming we get a good band over CT but i can see it sucking for most of the state at low elevations with just white rain.

Nada storm here maybe in 1-2 weeks

You're learning! But.. I'll be in Westfield this weekend

At this point, The GFS is nothing but a fun fantasy model to look at if you are jonesing for any type of particular inclement weather. Very hard to rely on when it's the only model showing something. Had flakes flying on the way into work this morning.

Just can’t allow any snow here even when it’s obvious . Ok you’re right no snow Saturday here. None . Zero . Zippo, zilch

So what's the consensus as of now? An inch or two on Saturday and the same late Sunday / Monday?

The Euro and EPS have done a better job with the Northern Stream this winter than the other guidance. All the Northern Stream kickers have prevented the Southern Stream disturbances from developing into KU heavy benchmark coastal snowstorm tracks. December was a unique case where we were able to get a few moderately snowy clippers tracking to our south. But this month so far we lost the record -WPO which combined with the -NAO for those two favorable tracks.

It’s gone

The gfs ai went west Also what’s the use of ensembles if they are all wrong