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Not a drop nor drizzle for MVY on the 12z gfs op

Here's a detailed study of cases where second half of September was warmer than first half at NYC (or to complete top 20, a few cases of least cooling). For all data, the September 1-15 mean is 70.7, the September 16-30 mean is 65.4 and the decrease is 5.3 (F deg) For 1991-2020, the corresponding values are 71.7 _____ 66.5 _____ and 5.2 F deg. The top twenty-five Septembers in terms of anomalous temperature averages from first to second half, favoring second half warmth, are as follows. Rank ____ Year ____ 1-15 ___ 16-30 ___ diff ____ rank of 2nd half _01 _____ 2017 ____ 67.7 ___ 73.3 ____ +5.6 _______2 _02 _____ 1891 ____ 70.1 ____74.1 ____ +4.0 _______ 1 _03 _____ 1946 ____ 68.7 ___70.9____ +2.2 ______ 10 _04 _____ 1895 ____ 71.1 ____72.2 ____ +1.1 _______ 4 _05 _____ 1970 ____ 70.3 ___ 71.3 ____ +0.9 *_____ 7t _06 _____ 1968 ____70.1 ___ 71.0 ____ +0.9 _______ 9 _07 _____ 1917 ____ 63.2 ___ 63.9 ____ +0.6 * _08 _____ 1870 ____ 67.9 ___ 68.4 ____ +0.5 _09 _____ 1914 ____ 66.5 ___ 66.8 _____ +0.3 _10 ______1892 ____ 64.0 ___ 64.1 _____ +0.2 * _11 ______2006 ____66.5 ___ 66.6 ____ +0.1 _12 _____ 1986 ____ 67.9 ___ 67.8 ____ - 0.1 _13 ______1926 ____ 65.9 ___ 65.5 ____ - 0.4 _14 _____ 1883 ____ 62.0 ___ 61.5 ____ - 0.5 _15 _____ 2019 ____ 70.7 ___ 70.1 ____ - 0.6 _______ 11 _16 _____ 1902 ____ 66.9 ___ 66.0 ____ - 0.9 _17t_____ 1908 ____ 69.4 ___ 68.4 ____ - 1.0 _17t_____ 1911 _____ 68.2 ___ 67.2 ____ - 1.0 _17t_____ 1933 ____ 70.0 ___ 69.0 ____ - 1.0 _20 _____ 1920 ____ 69.0 ___ 67.9 ____ - 1.1 _21t_____ 1881 _____ 73.9 ___ 72.7 ____ - 1.2 _______ 3 _21t_____ 1905 _____ 70.4 ___ 69.2 ____ -1.2 _21t_____ 2003 _____68.5 ___ 67.3 ____ - 1.2 _24 _____ 1930 _____72.6 ___ 71.3 ____ -1.3 _______ 7t _25 _____ 1965 _____ 68.1 ___ 66.8 ____ -1.4 * ____________ * Second decimals in data cause rounding result to be different from one-decimal differences in these cases === === Note that nine of the top eleven warmest second halves of September appear in this top 25. Exceptions were 2005 (75.2, 71.4 - rank t5th, drop 3.8) 2015 (77.5, 71.4 - rank t5th) dropped 6.2F. Also t12th place 1921 (69.7) dropped 4.8 from 74.5 F while t12th 2010 (also 69.7) dropped 2.8 from 72.5; 14th place (69.4) 1959 dropped 5.8 from 75.2. 15th place 1905 (69.2) is in the list above, 16th place 1906 (69.1) is not in list (dropped 2.4 from 71.5) and tied 17th for warmest second half is 69.0, one is in the list above (1933) and the other is 1998 which dropped 2.5 from 71.5. 19th warmest second half is 68.8 in 1985 and t20th is 68.7 in 2002 and 2021. These three all had moderate falls from warmer first halves. 1884 (68.6) and 1898 (68.5) were next in line and both fell over 4F to reach those still-very warm values. Tied 25th at 68.4 were 1870 and 1908 (in list), 2007 and 2016. There is a noticeable tendency for these warm second-half cases (whether in list or not) to be followed by several weeks of very warm weather in October, which is probably not surprising given the persistence of pattern often seen in early to mid autumn. Yet also the most conspicuous counter-example (see top ten counter-examples list below text) 1947 also was followed by a very warm October as were 1897, 1900 and 1961 in that list. 1875 stayed very cold, 1929 was generally cold in October also. A few years made this list by having a very chilly first half and a near or closer to average second half (1917, 1883 in particular) There are quite a few solid winters that followed years in this list (1917-18 and 1933-34 in particular, also 2017-18, 1892-93, 1870-71, 1968-69, 1911-12). Remains to be seen where 2025 will stack up against this top 25. The first half mean is . ========== (top ten counter-examples, falling averages in Sep) _01 __ 1947 ___ 77.3 _ 59.9 __ -17.4 F _02 __ 2023 ___76.0 _62.8 __ -13.2 F _03 __ 1875 ___ 70.4 _ 57.4 __ -13.0 F _04 __ 1993 ___ 73.5 _ 61.0 __ -12.5 F _05 __ 1929 ___ 75.5 _ 63.2 __ -12.3 F _06t__ 1961 ___ 79.1 _ 67.8 __ -11.4 F * _06t__ 1996 ___ 73.7 _ 62.3 __ -11.4 F _08t__ 1897 ___ 72.6 _ 61.5 __ -11.1 F _08t__ 1915 ___ 75.5 _ 64.4 __ -11.1 F _10t__ 1900 ___ 76.3 _ 65.5 __ -10.8 F _10t__ 1983 ___ 77.2 _ 66.3 __ -10.8 F * _10t__ 1990 ___ 72.9 _ 62.1 __ -10.8 F _______ * Second decimals in data cause rounding result to be different from one-decimal differences in these cases Most of the top ten twenty first halves (above 74F) are in the above list; 2015 (77.5) and 2005 (75.1) are discussed in slight-fall cases, and other contenders with average drops are 1884 (74.9) 1898 (76.3) 1931 (76.5) 1944 (74.1) 1945 (74.7) 1971 (75.8) 1979 (74.6) 1980 (75.7) and 2016 (75.2). 1953 and 1973 with strong heat waves at start of September had first half averages close to 74F. They cooled off fairly quickly.

You start to wonder if the next rain we see is in December

It’s like a desert here. I’ve never seen anything like it. Agree on the leaves…lots of early color that are mixed brown.

I don't want to get too ahead of my skis, but the EPS and GEFS have been gradually showing the basin opening back up between 92L, the wave behind it, and perhaps some subtropical/tropical development in the homebrew region.

Endless Coc!

Looking good west of the Mississippi. East naso much.

That would be fine with me. Just need to get my truck back from the shop before winter starts.

1995 is the correct year. There was an issue copying it over 0 good catch.

If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season. We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.

A friend of mine also does landscaping (I am doing that now a few years, and "hardscape"), and it is so much more work when all of a sudden you are in a desert climate, after "temperate," "Northeast Boreal," or whatever, it didn't used to matter! The COC can take a long walk off a short pier. We need precip.

Well in the long range thread they are talking about how it’s going to be another South and East winter given the ‘seasonal’ trend of the rain tomorrow and Wednesday….so there is that. Getting my snow shovel ready! Sorry about the leaky pipe!

Had a couple fresh lobsters my sister's friend caught today, hard shell already, seems early for hard shell but they were meaty.

Was on Cape Cod today. All oaks and leaves are half green, half brown/dead. It's brutal. Steincoc showing itself

We are warming up for another disastrous winter in the NW burbs...well I will start posting this nonevent for those west of 95 under obs. after 18Z.

There's that big gap I remember between July 9 and August 3 and again between August 20 and September 9. August was crickets lol

At different stages of the planet's evolution did we have a different amount of water on the planet Don? If we are going to pursue space colonization, I don't really see any other way, but to bring water from Earth. There is not enough water anywhere else in our solar system (to my knowledge) to sustain a space colony. If it will help keep sea levels lower than what climate change will do, in a way we're killing two birds with one stone.

Radar has certainly come alive this afternoon. Looks like another day or so of additional showers. I suspect we will see some bright reds added to the leaves as we progress quickly toward peak Fall Leaf Season.

The last couple days of Sept scares me. GFS has been hinting at a torchfest.

This is very weird, did the same hurricane return 20 years later Tony?? 1975: Marilyn struck the Virgin Islands as a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and an estimated minimum central pressure of 952 millibars or 28.11 inches of mercury. The strongest, most damaging part of the storm passed directly over the island of St. Thomas. The island of Culebra reported an unofficial wind gust of 125 mph. Storm surge was generally 6 to 7 feet with an isolated 11.7 storm surge in St. Croix. 80% of the homes and business on St. Thomas were destroyed and 10,000 people were left homeless. 30% of the homes on St. John were destroyed and 60% were left roofless. Marilyn caused 8 deaths and $1.5 billion dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: Hurricane Marilyn strikes Virgin Islands. It hit the U.S. Virgin Islands as a strong category 2 storm with top winds of 115 mph. The strongest, most damaging part of the storm passed directly over St. Thomas Island. It caused 8 deaths and $1.5 billion in damages. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

nice low humidity, 1980s type weather is back

why do we call this a coastal low instead of a noreaster? any storm with NE winds should be referred to as a noreaster, I noticed the media is calling it a coastal low too.

we should finish below normal here. I don't know how Islip is so warm lol

wow it's been very wet in the Poconos! today is my birthday so thanks for the YTD right to my birthday Chris!!

It could be the last very warm day of the season, I see my forecast as mid 80s. We have not been warmer than low 80s since the first half of August, it has nothing to do with the ocean as the flow has been NW most of that time and low humidity, good sky conditions.