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Heavy showers have moved from offshore W to my home at 1:40AM, a total surprise!

The CFSv2 progged RONI peak continues to drop steadily with more drops likely: 7/22-31: ASO/OND +3.5 8/9-18: OND +3.45 8/19-28: OND +3.2 8/29-9/7: OND +3.0 with most of the blue lines (most recent 8 runs) lower

Very interesting looking at the images from the respective years. This year’s Atlantic has really warmed up compared to earlier in the season though we’re seeing most of the warmth in the subtropics.

Not for me. 9 months of grey skies and cool to cold weather here where I have to wear slippers inside during those 9 - this is still fresh as a daisy.

here we go lol

I’m down probably 1.5” on that graphic and couldn’t care less, ha. Nice, dry weather is perfect for enjoying the outdoors during the autumn. Even if it didn’t rain at all in the next 6 weeks, life would go on just fine.

Its been over for months lol. Other than hopium. Blow it up and start over. Elias the gas lighter has totally fucked this organization. Hopefully the owner is smart enough to finally see it. I have my doubts.

Tornado sirens are going off in Cedar Rapids.... radar indicated near the airport.

The issue is the marginal temps these models are depicting, particularly when we get a shot at a coastal storm. Normal/slightly above temps on the seasonals could be a signal for a bunch of chilly rain. The PSU perfect track rainstorms lol. We will likely need a -AO/-EPO to be present in order to overcome the onslaught of Pacific air into our source region and allow colder air to move southward. Not a prediction, but a potential fail mode, as we have seen before in strong Ninos. Location matters ofc. Interior at elevation may do ok. I root for Ninas here since the epic winter of 2009-10, as they have mostly produced avg to slightly above avg snowfall. Ninos have pretty much sucked since then.

I might be misreading it, but that shows a 6-week anomaly total for most of New England in the -0.5 to -1.0 inch range. Certainly not anything overly concerning? Instead of ~4 inches of rain over the next 6 weeks, most get 3.0 to 3.5 inches? Assuming that product is close to accurate, which is always iffy.

That is so odd...I mean, it can help to determine how favorable the set up is for a phase, and/or to come up the coast...but need H5.

So as of right now EWR isn't even in the top 20 for 90 degree days. Also pretty insane that 1993 had nearly as many 95 degree days as we do 90 degree days this year. Now that's hot.

Orioles season is finally over.

Yeah agree. You can’t tell a whole lot there.

Today's Highs: PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 83 EWR: 82 JFK: 82 * missing intra hour highs TTN: 82 TEB: 81 ISP: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 80 ACY: 80

Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow and Thursday. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. the greatest likelihood for some showers is Thursday evening and Thursday night when a cold front crosses the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -26.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal). The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.