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12z NAM as others have said previously this page: Heavy qpf is slated for our NYC subforum, especially e PA/NJ/LI..wind driven pelting rain. 12z NAM is more of a hugger so that can change but what I noted in that cycle... 7H FGEN shift northward well up into central New England Monday. They are going to get some decent mid level rain. I'm trying to attach the 850MB FGEN LOOP. Note a couple things: 850 FGEN trying to get sct showers going se NYS/NJ Saturday and then the big dump from 66hours on to 84 hrs... nearly stationary decent 850 MB FGEN with 70KT 850 MB easterly inflow band... no wonder spot nearly 8" near Toms River. Modeling will change but if indeed the 850 and 7H low are passing across the Delmarva...we get hit hard. Just want to make sure it doesn't fritter eastward. vertically stacked lows Delmarva to s NJ/s of LI are our sweet spot with heaviest qpf often spilling further nw than modeled. Now lets see what future cycles will offer as well as other modeling. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=temp_adv_fgen_850&runtime=2025101012&fh=84

Interesting. There have been large flocks hanging at the lake by my house for a few weeks now.

No it isn't; complete conspiracy

"Winter is over" bridge jumping on October 10 has to be a new forum record. Well done!

I really miss the change of seasons. My nightmare will soon be over. I'm only going to get about 1/2 the going market price. SCREWED! A plan I've started to seriously consider is leaving everything possession wise, buying a RV and travel till end of days.

the overnight low was 36. the house is a still a little chilly.

can't trust the NAM past 60 hours but here is the total qpf most of which still falls past 60 hours

Nam crushes all now. 6 to 8" ocean county along the coast

Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little)

The trend is my friend for Sunday! Looks like models are converging on the strung out euro solution. Euro AI and Ukie most consistently showed this and never really got on board with a full phase

100%. This is why I am so confident that my area will see more snowfall, even if it's a bit warmer. I do not feel warmth will be prohibitive for the vast majority of the season...at least not at this latiitude.

OMG I just LLLLOOVVVEEEEE Ninas!

Just looking but The eps ensembles at 6z had quite a west lean to them, closer to coast. Imo.

Direct Weather is as bad as any.

Yes, the issue was definitely increased stability...which may have been for a couple of reasons.

When was the last time that happened? 2009? Same with clippers. Where did they go?

fwiw: Average Return Interval on the 10z/10 WPC 72 hour FCST qpf... NJ coast every 1-2 years.

We had some good discussion last year during the mid season lull about the possibility that there’s a modest negative correlation between sunspots and Atlantic ACE. Sunspots were at a quite high level, especially in August of ‘24, when the tropics were dead. The hypothesis centers around the idea of slightly increased stability in the tropics during peak solar periods, enough to possibly make a difference sometimes. There’s been nothing proven though.

41 on the dot here in the Hominy Valley.

Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win.

I think it's the same issue that plagued my seasonal forecasting during the 2023-2024 El Nino season...folks need to reevaluate more archaic methods of forecasting given the rate at which the modern climate is changing. I don't think forecasters take into account the redued gradient between the sub tropics and the tropics enough, which stifles convective instability. We are warming more rapidly with latitude.....just like nights are warming more rapidly than days. The general warming of the oceans outiside of ENSO also alters the equations, which is something that I failed to appreciate. Remeber...weather happens because of the gradients that result from the redistribution of heat....nothing else. Alter that gradient and conventional forecasting methods will not work.

I’m at 65 meters on this hill, makes sense

Don't accept next time Scooter invites you over for nude holiday twister.

Just a joke

The loss of "fake cold" is how the majority of CC manifests...and we know how very real that phenomenon is.