All Activity

Great post! CFS: AO

Great way to start off the lift serve season at Stowe yesterday! Upper Starr into untouched woods first run of season! Glorious! .

Not to be a weenie but what makes you think it’s “very unlikely” the pna flips positive for a period in december?

Dump west...bleed east

Pretty sure if Boston doesn’t reach 70 by end of year, it’s the earliest, last 70F day. Last 70F day was 10/8. Think Fisher tweeted that.

0.0" 42/40. Been a decent stretch of real Nov weather. Last temp above 50 was the 10th and lows mostly in the 20s.

Maybe I got a little excited and it’s more like .3” At this point I’m going out and just dealing with it.

0.17”, 51 degrees

I hear ya. Expecting a dry Saturday and you end up with half of the day wet would piss me off too. Looks like we may clear out up here by midday. I have more crap to get done in the yard.

Same as you.

Here's my thinking based on the latest guidance and some of the longer-range guidance. I focus on what I believe are the three biggest potential scenarios for much of December.

Fantasy land on the GFS looks really good for the upper Midwest, but time will tell if it’s a trend or mirage. 0.03” of precipitation in November, something has got to give.

There was definitely bright banding, but it was moderate rain earlier. Came down good for awhile. I’m just more annoyed than anything.

About .25” here. Maybe a tenth left.

I will say I wish it had busted more. The well has been a little better, but it’s still tenuous.

We were definitely in the soup through last night:

I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy.

.35-.4 there? It’s pretty light overall and moving out quick. Some of those echoes have a little bright banding too.

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

This would have been fluff. Probably will end up .35-.4ish. At least T-Day looks good and we were right to toss the gfs from yesterday.

wanna make a bet ?

If it was exceptionally fake.

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with. And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall.

This is terrible. What a bust.