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I wonder if the forecast will change again till tomorrow morning?

Fun to see a sleet storm, if that’s what we’re facing. Out of our control. .

At the risk of causing issues…who is “us”? This is a large geographical forum.

Damn I thought you had an inch or two. Well, at least that fits with the narrative of getting waterboarded in the snow department in the last 7 years there.

RGEM is solid

Nam has been horrendous Other models have several inches

I just thought it was funny picking random numbers.

We don't need it. Got .06" of rain this morning and with tomorrow's .01" we've practically doubled our yearly rainfall.

Well, I didn't last year...just a dusting.

Always throw out a guess for each storm - thinking 3.7” and a decent amount of sleet. (Morristown) 27 degrees

Thanks. Thus, we agree on aerial weighing. Do you agree that pop weighted would have been warmer in 2021?

I need 6” to hit 36” which would leave me with needing 164” to hit 200

Did you know Austin, Texas now has the tallest skyscraper in the state of Texas at 1,025ft? Waterline (Austin) - Wikipedia

It’s kind of amazing we had back to back white Christmases when superimposed on the lack of snow overall. But at least one thing we’ve had since the beginning of last winter is cold. Anyways, yeah I’m leaning toward advisory here but that dry air makes me nervous. I’d feel better with one more little tick north.

Yep-the thump happens then the snow turns to shredded, and the sleet line advances in. I can't see soundings but verbatim from the sim radar that's what looks like happens. There does seem to be a good shot at hangback snow after the low begins to depart and the cold air returns in the mid levels that could add another inch or two around dawn on Sat. Again it's one model's interpretation but IMO it can't just be dismissed.

I know. I was commenting on the misconception that nyc hasn’t had a decent December. My biggest event was 1.5”.

Another tick NE

You should be in a very good spot as well!! You too

It's the most likely outcome IMO. Snow to sleet and then maybe back to some light snow. These very sharp cutoffs on snow maps juuuuust south of us rarely (if ever) work out in our favor. 2-4" is what I'm going with now

My other sister left early tonight to beat the snowstorm in Massachusetts.

ICON koochie

Most models get good stuff right into and even north of Boston for a time. But you’re right. Anything from a coating of sand to 6” is on the table here, which is kind of crazy. NAM was the best run of any model yet here, would probably be 5-6”

My sister complained that it was 80 in Austin, TX in the forecast for the next few days. 60 here, mild but common here.

Some nice bands. 925mb is getting very cold. Into the DGZ so these might be producing some nice dendrites