All Activity

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never gets big tstms" here. Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart! Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing. And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023. He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS. High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains. I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead. My best chase days were in SLGT. Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

Hmmm ...Maybe I was a bit hasty converting my snowblower to a rototiller. Did do a pretty good job on the tomato bed!

Hopefully responding to you. You won't jump on me ( jk ). But I agree.

I want to see warning snowfall back to ORH on most model guidance before I think I'm getting even advisory here. This storm is ripe for a big trend NW through tomorrow and then a nice rug-pull after that.

Hopefully responding to you. You won't jump on me ( jk ). But I agree.

Can someone ask Webb when the euro will shift NW?

EPS has a mean of 6-8” for the dmv, at least double that of gefs

I think interior N and W of 495 will be mostly snow as 925 temps never get warmer than about -2C....hard to rain like that if you have anything steady falling....if it's really light it could be white rain or even plain rain maybe. Mesos are significantly colder in the BL so those would be snow even close to BOS.

I appreciate it. Really. Yea the situation is probably making it harder. I see her 3 or 4 times a week. Exchanges or things we do together for the kids. I kept the house because the kids love it here. We do things that she used to be a part of. Camping trips. Ski trips. The beach. It’s hard to move on from something when you’re surrounded by it. It also doesn’t help that she is an amazing mom and wonderful person. So it’s not like I can hate her. Thanks. Yea I’ve given up on waiting for it to get any easier. Just had to learn to cope with what it is. It’s not as bad as this is probably making it sound. Most of the time I’m fine. I’m not miserable all the time or anything. But that memory hit me. Had a rough moment I guess.

My guess is Saturday is the only system.

I doubt it

Most of this snow mean is from next Friday through Monday. About 3". I don't have the individual members but the mean continues to have a nice slug of moisture through the Tennessee Valley. Definitely a reason to be cautiously optimistic for next weekend.

The model battles are like Alabama or Clemson playing other teams a few years back. All the others models might be frisky or fun and think they have a chance to win but then inevitably sets in and the king asserts itself and they fall in line

its coming

From 5 to 15 in a heartbeat. Marriage can be tough. 50/50

Someone getting 1/2-1.5” Friday night into Saturday morning. Right now best chance is NE Maryland based on models but it’s been shifting around and won’t be nailed down till maybe 12hrs out.

GFS /Ukie all alone . Buyers beware

Euro AI ensembles a slight tick east but not much change. EPS did move NW.

It's been studied and several papers, a couple of thesis and more than a few articles have been written on the subject. In fact, one human used the forum and turned in their paper for a degree

Skynet even better and has a biggie signal for the 25th. Lets gizzo!

I love the switch from “maybe the GFS is leading the way” to “it was never worth trusting.”

That’s all I was saying man . It seemed like you were saying it’s all WOR for snow. This morning you said post pics of your coating etc. Anyway.. hopefully everyone can get snow this weekend. From one or both systems .

Deep winter with a good coastal for the 25th.

Come see the whites. I see them every day and it never gets old

Not sure which storm you were talking about specifically, but there was one coastal storm in feb 2023 that dropped 1.3” qpf imby and more in other places. Temps were 37-40. I’ve wondered if we copied and pasted that storm onto the 60s-80s winters, it would have been 13”+ I’ll add that after last winter and this December, I feel a lot better about future winter prospects compared to how I felt through 22-23 and 23-24. Those two winters were just plain ugly temp wise, but we’ve been getting colder temps so that hasn’t been the issue as much as dryness and the lack of STJ moisture.