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hockytreefiddle'd 66/52

When we get the mist from the clouds I call it spittle. Like the clouds are spitting on us rather than a drizzle.

Did you happen to read the one comment below the post? lol Made me crack up.

NBM maybe? Just a guess.

Happy Father's Day to all the dad's on the board!

That's better. Cooler today, then more seasonable in the coming week with chances of shwrs/stms.

Toooorrcchhh! https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1934230852117966927?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Right now I would favor the "classic" microbursty line of storms. This is not a knock at SPC by any means, but I do not trust any severe weather forecast beyond D3 in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. We simply have too many mesoscale features that can muck up a forecast. My favorite research papers for this part of the country are below, and all reference the issues that numerical weather prediction has in this part of the world. Highly worth the read: Guastini, Corey T. and Bosart, Lance F., 2016, "Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments" Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 4, pp 1363, 1520-0493, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml Vaughan, Matthew T., Tang, Brian H., and Bosart, Lance F., 2017, "Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 32, No. 5, pp 1903, 1520-0434, doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0044.1 Banacos, P. C., and M. L. Ekster, 2010: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1082–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1. Lombardo, K. A., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 940–956, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00002.1.

The rest of the summer won’t be close to average.

So would the storm mode mainly be pop-up microbursty stuff or a squall line?

All the local airports around NYC are too close to the water to capture the highest urban maximum temperatures. This is one of the reasons that the NYC micronet was installed. ConEd could easily see from their actual electrical demand that the NYC official readings were lagging the actual usage on the warmest days. Especially with Central Park getting installed under the trees back in 1995 rather than out in a clearing like in the old days. So this lead to NYC being one of the most undersampled urban environments for heat in the USA. Most of the population in NYC doesn’t live at the cooler airports and get sea breezes. So the neighborhood micronets tells ConEd and the residents what is really going on where the most densely populated areas are.

Who's forgetting? Looks average to slightly above except for a few days next week when we torch.. I still think the west Midwest and south of here are the big heat winners this year.. meh for us for the most part

60 here

By the way, there was no inland superiority last Thursday we had zero sea breeze -- one of my sensors actually recorded 93.7 at 4:30 pm on the north side of my house, but I don't record that number because it's near the roof of my house. But based on the 94 you listed there, maybe it was accurate? I still don't like the idea of being 4 degrees hotter than the airport especially on a westerly wind. I know I was hotter than JFK here in SW Nassau, I just can't say 4 degrees hotter. I went with the average of all 4 sensors I use and so went with 92. We were definitely hotter than JFK, I just can't say 4 degrees hotter. At least 92 for sure though. I'm not north of JFK, I'm 5 miles almost due east of JFK. What could cause southwest Nassau to be hotter than JFK-- also a compressional airflow?

Not iffy at all since Harrison was 93° to the NW of the Newark ASOS. The LGA ASOS is right along the Western Sound or East River. So a westerly flow there is cooler. Go a few miles south to Corona and it’s a land breeze with compressional downslope warming off the Moraine. JFK is right on the water so they need WNW flow to avoid a cooling influence.

59 here at 11AM

By the way, there was no inland superiority last Thursday we had zero sea breeze -- one of my sensors actually recorded 93.7 at 4:30 pm on the north side of my house, but I don't record that number because it's near the roof of my house. But based on the 94 you listed there, maybe it was accurate? I still don't like the idea of being 4 degrees hotter than the airport especially on a westerly wind. I know I was hotter than JFK here in SW Nassau, I just can't say 4 degrees hotter. I went with the average of all 4 sensors I use and so went with 92.

Spittle cloud? Didn't know clouds could drool...

Ill be off line most of the rest of the day so wont be able to comment further. Lets first see if Newark can indeed make 100 early next week. It should feel 100+ but whether we can get to 100... 9 days in advance??? I've no reliable certitude.

a little iffy about 94 since it's 2 degrees higher than Newark. especially in Queens (that makes it 4 degrees higher than either LGA or JFK).

The micronets have been very reliable. They maxed out at 94° the other day a little higher than the airports which are cooler since all 3 ASOS stations are right on the water. Go just inland from the cooler airports and that is where the warmest urban areas are. June 12th high temperatures Corona, Queens…94° Brownsville, Brooklyn….94° Newark….92° Astoria, Queens…91° LGA….90° JFK….90° BDR…90° FRG….89° HVN…89° ISP…..88° NYC….87° HPN….87°

EWR comes closest to matching my personal experience which is that 2010 and 1993 were the two top summers.

oh we had massive wildfires that summer

it makes me wonder if those places actually undermeasured heat in 2010, LGA had 48 90+ days in 2010 which is going to be hard to match. 2010 was so far in excess of anything we have ever had, it was to summer what 1995-96 was to winter.