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  2. bluewave
    Which has been the case this year so far leading to much warmer than expected conditions than we typically see from such strong El Niños.
  3. mitchnick
    Gawx did research on early season warmings and found the only closest matches to this year were 16/17, 79/80 & 09/10, with the last 2 the only Niños. So it may be indicative of future favorable warmings, but that's weenie speculation at this point.
  4. GaWx
    Agreed
  5. Typhoon Tip
    yup ... ... There's a synergistic potential there, too - adding a third, the -PDO hangover ... whereby three dominate modes, working together, produce more impact than scalar sum of their input. What makes that trickier than the typical unknown quotient of synergistic result, is that one of these modes is new, and "newing" - in other words, a changing input. It really takes the unknowable synergy, and makes it extra double top secret unknowable. Ha It's tough tho... Folks need to philosophically understand that "more impact" does not mean more scalar amplitude. It can... but impact in the context of ENSO pertains to 'how much does it force the system' - and by that, deviates it from a non-ENSO base. A base that now is D(CC) ... see where this is going? I mean it doesn't mean higher wind gusts and deeper floods, nor satisfying one's snow lusts .. A valid interpretation of these can simply mean more pervasive ...lasting longer ..etc. If NYC go 120" of snow this winter and never snowed more than 8" in a single dose, that would/could likely be a synergistic improvement on just having an El Nino, or CC working alone with a -PDO hangover. 8" is actually manageable. Or... it could mean two consecutive yard-stick bombs totaling a National Guard deployment, sure. Part of the problem for those setting up expectations off El Nino dividends, or subtractions, either way, is that El Nino is not a weather forecast. ...obviously there are those of us that are aware of that but you'd be surprised... heh
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...because it had very similar deviations to the ones I expect with this one.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the strongest El Nino ever partly because we have the warmest oceans ever, which means we have more prominent competing forces than ever.
  8. mitchnick
    Idk. 82 was east based and great for the MA. lol
  9. forkyfork
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, given how east-based this one is, I think you would want some deviation....
  11. mitchnick
    It's not worth arguing about as we'll know in a couple months. It just seems that there's this consensus forecast to disregard the strongest Niño not causing default Niño conditions. And there's an old saying, when everyone thinks alike, people aren't thinking enough.
  12. roardog
    Beating that record is not a slam dunk yet then.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, true....I think most consider that a tacit point given the audience we are dealing with, but noted, nonetheless.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    On average over the course of a season, probably, but you are never going to entirely eliminate any degree of seasonal variation as a byproduct of alternate forcing mechanisms...especially in this modern era of being surrounded by heat sinks.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    No, I got it. I should have been more clear I guess and directed in general. I was more referencing the whole nature of the discussion in this thread. Obviously there is great analysis of the broader El Niño. But human nature includes some imby when it comes to snow specifically. So a guy in Michigan and a guy in New England (again no one in particular) have a near zero chance of being shutout. At that latitude there is wiggle room. Down here where since the early 90s we have had huge swings in totals year over year (50” one year then 10” the next) it’s a precarious situation. It’s not a zero chance nyc sees its first ever shutout with this event. .
  16. LakePaste25
    Makes sense. When we actually do get the ENSO climo, defaulting to ENSO means it will end up correct.
  17. mitchnick
    If this is the strongest Niño we know of, wouldn't it increase the odds of a "default Niño " actually occurring as depicted on seasonal modeling? I'm not saying I know that answer, but it seems logical.
  18. wncsnow
    34 with more frost
  19. MacChump
    good call
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    If NYC doesn't get more snowfall during the coming season than they did in 1997-1998, then I'll hand my site over to @MJO812and dissapear.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You missed my point...I was referencing amounts relative to average. I understand my climo...I wasn't assessing the possibility of being "shutout"...
  22. Maggie Valley Steve
    Another frosty morning in the Valley.
  23. Brian5671
    Nothing canceled here-we had it in 2020-but people did firepits at the end of driveways with a bowl of candy-no contact...seems like the firepit tradition has hung on ever since
  24. bluewave
    February 2025 was the exception when the Southeast Ridge verified much stronger right around storm time leading to the record snows ending up near Toronto.
  25. WinterWolf
    For sure.
  26. kdxken
    Awesome!
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