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Thoughts and prayers to the hairy cracks in GC.

Im not looking forward to the heat but its been a very pleasant June so far. Plenty of cloudy days, quite a few early Fall-like temperature days, and the few warm days have come with low humidity. Ive had my windows open far more than my air on, so no complaints. You knew the heat was coming, so the longer we can delay it the shorter the unbearable part of the year will be.

Yeah and this year probably has the biggest signal yet for a lower activity eastern MDR even as the last few years in the tropical Atlantic has struggled. Given that we’ve blown the top off what’s possible with CAGs in this last decade, those climatologically favorable periods should be watched closely.

They were only warmer early. They cooled down quick with plenty of ice cover by mid-winter. The overall ice cover was right around average, but Lake Erie was 100% frozen for a time.

Much more rain than I was expecting today. The ridge really looks to get pumping during the extended period. Summer on the way.

Very pleasant June for approximately the first 3 weeks, but Sunday-Tuesday is going to suck. Its time, but its still going to suck lol.

There is some feedback, but its not necessarily incorrect, as you mention with an MCV it can modulate the wind fields much stronger.

personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback. a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years.

Yeah forkey was calling it over a week ago on usersesh

Excessive Heat Warnings or bust. High of 78° on the dot at home.

Euro is a furnace too

yeah this isn't a few hot days ahead of a cold front this is a legit heat dome

Every model agrees on a super ridge in the east. There's no way we're escaping this. Trust me I'd love nothing more. If this verifies someone is recording 110F.

Ta Da!

Last year the Euro a few times showed all-time record highs (109) for Philly in mid-long range, only for Philly never to reach 100, so I'll hang my hat on that until it gets to day 3, then I'll believe it much more

Well at least by then we'll be getting one day closer to winter lol

Wednesday

which day?

I tend to agree. We'll see. I think the message is that it will be hot with probably the hottest heatwave since 2010. Maybe we are locked into at least 5 consecutive days of mid 90s+. And I would look for the hottest days to top out probably between 102-104 if we do in fact exceed 100. Lots of time for the 100s to become unraveled here. It can all be messed up with backdoor fronts, onshore winds, or thunderstorms. WX/PT

Abbreviated translation…… hotter and humid than he’ll summer coming for the next 3 months with no breaks.

From this range you assume the standard corrections. As Scott was saying, the NW flow is likely to offset - this appears to be ( at this time...) trying to take a S/W plateau slab of desert kinetic air and sending over top. This is not initially a Bermuda/Gulf delivery. 99/63-ish more so than 89/76. The other aspect that I think Brian hit on is that normal model magnification may normalize some. A standard heat wave is still going to be a score for modeling and recognition from this range. We'll see how things evolve in guidance I will say though that the ensemble means of all 3 remain impressively amplified, above 594 circumvallate 500 mb ... in fact, it's not even clear it ends but really just loses coherence by virtue of normal member meandering way out in time - there's still arguably vestiges of it there beyond 300 hours.

Will be camping in Maple City MI this weekend. Bring the sky booms

Might actually squeeze out a nice weekend for once

Everyone should get a good tank of gas next Monday

why not GFS is only a few degrees lower