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Heavy coating in Btown this AM

I am a bit confused here. If you read the whole paragraph in the link, it appears to contradict itself. Can somebody clue me in? Is this a roundabout way to say cooler fall and winters after a dry, hot summer? A warm-phase ENSO event, or El Niño, strengthens the subtropical jet stream and typically keeps it just to our south, which means a moisture-rich storm track through the Gulf of Mexico and off our coast. South-central Texas and the southeast US will be mostly cool and wet because the cold, moist air from the Pacific Ocean entering the southern states enhances clouds and rainfall and cools temperatures due to lack of direct sunlight. In turn, much of the northern United States and Canada will be warm during an El Niño event because the polar jet stream swings farther east over the northeastern United States. For much of the southeastern United States during the summer of an El Niño event, the climate is usually warmer and drier. (emphasis mine)

I call BS on those hyper El Nino runs......I'm not sure why those shouldn't be getting the same weenies attached to them that @MJO812's day 10 blizzard maps do during the winter. I mean, tell me what the difference is....long range guidance displaying an either highly anomalous, or unprecedented occurence.

We might get one more late next week.. I called this one a week out let's see if I can do it again

If we can make it through the summer, it should turn noticeably wetter late fall. As far as winter. Who knows? 82/83 was not particularly cold by 80s standards but we did have 3 winter storms capped off by the record March snowfall. 97/98 was warm with virtually no winter weather but lots of severe. 15/16 we did have the one good snow in January. Oddly, I don’t remember much else about that winter. Edit: Forgot about 22/23. I remember the really cold Christmas when we got down to 5 degrees IMBY but no other winter weather that winter.

We are due to a snowier El Nino in the NE....2015, 2018 and 2023 all sucked. I can't find an instance of four consecutive in that regard, although I'm sure @bluewave can scan through the Era data base and find one from the 1700s. 1987 was a pretty normal winter. 1991, 1994 and 1997 all sucked...then we had 2002. 1951 and 1953 were poor...then came 1957. There is value in anecdotal analysis, as long as it's buttressed with more empirical research.

30.3F SN

That CFS does not have any trouble whatsoever popping a SE trough....2023 that is not. I get the time range, but that is every bit as valid as these 3.0 El Nino delusions. I am willing to bet that if the CFS were right, we see that prism between the RONI and ONI narrow over the course of the year, eventually meeting roughly midway between 1 and 2 by next winter.

I was gonna say. It’s rare that it doesn’t…even in Brattleboro.

51 Aprils up here and 51 Aprils it has snowed.

Haha! West Ishpeming was -13.

Wintry drive this morning

You have more. Better echoes have been down there. Nearing 2” now IMG_8879.mov

Chilly mixed bag Wed.

Bryan, you must have more than 1.2 inches. Look at this. I mean that’s more than 3 inches on top of the birdbath already. 79726418536__E72723D6-6D1E-43C6-8719-887BABD3CDC7.MOV

I'll gladly take somewhat above normal temps to get copious precip.

If you want hot weather in April, well then, here you go - MU Weather Center REAL spring is about to arrive.. and in a big way.. across the eastern U.S. next week. I might be on "90 watch" next Tues and/or Wed!

My granddaughter's wedding is Sat eve, so this will start just in time after that blessed day.

Yea, need to take him with a grain of salt...I have noticed that you can really treat folks in the met community like models. They all have something to offer, but you are best suited to become familiar with their biases and tendencies in order to know how to screen their feedback and view them through the proper lens. Webb never simply offers an opinion or a take...it's always an OPINION or a TAKE. Perfect example of what social media does to an otherwise fine met.

GWDLT!! Sunny and 48 down here.

Most of our warmups over perform and you will have fairly dry ground with no leaves on trees-take the over here.

Saw Northfield in the news yesterday...rough spot!

I'm heading to the Virgin Islands for 11 days starting on Thursday. Perfect timing, I need a break from here.

The usual suspects are all trying to outdo one another for clicks. Nobody knows with certainty what ssta will look like after the wwb, which is what counts, along with what comes after. Enso predictions have a way of humbling the honest forecasters imho.

But that's just not always true - just go back to last week. On Thursday afternoon temps in eastern PA were mostly in the 40s. 24 hours later we were in the low 70s. At least at my house, it was 25 degrees warmer on Friday PM than it was Thursday PM.