Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Some of it was the stable air when the wedge lasted a lot longer than expected.
  3. Torch Tiger
    Yeah true...going forward looks great though. No looking back
  4. OrdIowPitMsp
    May 2026 finished exactly 1.0F above the long term average in Minneapolis. 2.24” of precipitation which is -1.67” below average. There was a late freeze on May 6th. The somewhat surprising 0.37” we received yesterday couldn’t have been timed better.
  5. Typhoon Tip
    haha... I'd say at least not totally sucking prison balls at shiv point -
  6. brooklynwx99
    waiting until the spring barrier passes to make an ENSO forecast is pretty standard. I said a couple weeks ago that we are probably getting a super event and that a strong event was likely in early April. not sure what the issue is there
  7. Chicago Storm
    Spring 2026 finished as the 8th warmest spring on record in Chicago. Warmest Spring Temperature Rankings 1. 56.6° - 2012 2. 56.2° - 1977 3. 53.9° - 1921 4. 53.8° - 2024 5. 52.7° - 2010 5. 52.7° - 1991 5. 52.7° - 1955 8. 52.6° - 2026 9. 52.1° - 2021 10. 51.7° - 1946
  8. Chicago Storm
    Spring 2026 finished as the 8th warmest spring on record in Chicago. Warmest Spring Temperature Rankings 1. 56.6° - 2012 2. 56.2° - 1977 3. 53.9° - 1921 4. 53.8° - 2024 5. 52.7° - 2010 5. 52.7° - 1991 5. 52.7° - 1955 8. 52.6° - 2026 9. 52.1° - 2021 10. 51.7° - 1946
  9. MarcmmKU
    Cold snow > Cold dry > warm dry > warm wet.
  10. Torch Tiger
    Everything is awesome!
  11. Chicago Storm
    May 2026 finished as the 10th driest May on record in Chicago. Driest May Rankings 1. 0.30" - 1992 2. 0.58" - 1994 3. 0.67" - 1934 4. 0.71" - 2023 5. 0.78" - 1950 6. 0.80" - 1921 7. 0.84" - 1897 8. 0.93" - 1903 9. 1.00" - 1886 10. 1.17" - 2026
  12. Chicago Storm
    May 2026 finished as the 10th driest May on record in Chicago. Driest May Rankings 1. 0.30" - 1992 2. 0.58" - 1994 3. 0.67" - 1934 4. 0.71" - 2023 5. 0.78" - 1950 6. 0.80" - 1921 7. 0.84" - 1897 8. 0.93" - 1903 9. 1.00" - 1886 10. 1.17" - 2026
  13. 87storms
    Looks like the base state still includes a northerly wind component, which is outstanding if you like persistent drought conditions. Seems like the last several years humidity has been the exception to the rule.
  14. LakePaste25
    My opinion is the east based nature of 97-98 did not prevent a big snowstorm from occurring. 82-83 was east based and produced a big snowstorm in the northeast and mid atlantic, and 72-73 produced a big snowstorm in the south. So whether it is east based or basin wide such as 15-16, there is still usually an opportunity or two.
  15. Typhoon Tip
    64, mainly sun sky with post-card cu utterly opposite condition to this morning, whence it was 48 and light rain.
  16. GaWx
    Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?
  17. Stormlover74
    Back to cold and windy
  18. LakePaste25
    Does the difference matter at that temp? 97-98 could’ve easily produced a blizzard just like 15-16. Maybe just less cold shots.
  19. forkyfork
    there's also the fact that the snow people have driven almost everyone else off the forum
  20. LakePaste25
    this gave me a good laugh:
  21. TheClimateChanger
    The hypothetical only works by assuming the entire tropical ocean belt is +3.3°C above recent climatology, which is physically impossible. But yeah, in theory, if ONI were +3.3°C and RONI were 0°C, that would not mean “monster El Niño.” It would mean the entire tropical ocean was so absurdly warm that Niño 3.4 no longer stood out.
  22. forkyfork
    it would be less annoying if you people could be objective about it. you didn't even think this would reach super a few months ago
  23. GaWx
    I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.
  24. Chicago Storm
    lol
  25. TheClimateChanger
    Oh yeah, I forgot: we’re only allowed to suggest modern readings may be biased warm. It is apparently anathema to point out that some sensor/site discrepancies could cut the other way — especially when the daily highs line up better than the lows.
  26. WxWatcher007
    Very interesting data and absolutely, we can't forget that even if we don't see a particularly strong tropical system wind wise there could be big and far reaching impacts from rainfall. I'm guessing that early and late season will probably be most favorable for TCG because I think tropical waves are going to have an extremely hard time during peak season to survive the trek west. In the eastern MDR they are going to find a profoundly stable and hostile environment, and any that make it to the Caribbean will get ripped apart by shear. Any trying to scoot north of the Antilles are likely to run into big TUTTs ripping them apart. Waves will develop, but it's going to be uphill to say the least imo. I kind of think CAG will be the most favorable mode for TCG this year. We'll see. Another important point--it doesn't even need to be a high end Nino to cause major issues basin-wide. The SSTa tell a lot of the story. The MDR is cool (remember when some thought it would never cool again haha) and the orientation doubles down on stability/subsidence issues we had even during the highly active years recently.
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...