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  2. dendrite
    Snow above 2kft is fake. @powderfreakwould even agree.
  3. nrgjeff
    I remain bearish despite SSW talk. First, the signal is better for Europe than it is for NA. Next, we've seen Novembers with such warmings go cold in Europe and keep Eastern US ridge. Couple good X accounts that post more Southeast AmWx had sources (on X). Anyway, I like the warm forecast, so I just liked and scrolled on. Some chatter about Arctic blocking and snow cover came up. Wrong pressure signal though. Eastern Siberia is low press. China is normal. For cold we want China low press and Siberia surface high. That's the cold building. Currently eastern Siberia snow build is not blocking, but storminess. Continue robust Pacific jet. Continue mild Southeast US. Bonus: Scandinavia block could get more bullish for Europe. I hope not for their sake, and because one country keeps bombing civilian heating of another country that way.
  4. GaWx
    Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.0 (after adjusting downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? 2023: -0.1 2015: -0.2 2009: -0.3 1997: +1.2 1991: +0.1 1986: -0.9 1982: -0.3 1972: +0.1 1965: -0.5 1957: 0.0 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
  5. WinterWolf
    You silly. Is Elevated snow fake snow? I mean in that situation…it’s only cold above a certain level.
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  7. Lava Rock
    64f. Feels like san diego Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
  8. snowman19
    Man, this upcoming WWB for early November looks real impressive on the models. This thing is the energizer bunny in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….
  9. The Iceman
    I'm far from a pro but the hobbyist in me thinks this winter is going to be a struggle. I think pac air will flood the continent and we struggle to get the cold air necessary for snow. I foresee a lot of cold rain. My guess for SE PA/NJ/DE would be 5 - 10" and most of that in one or two storms that either start as snow or end as snow. Super balls to the wall east based Nino rarely plays out well here. I hope I'm wrong but I'm heading into winter with measured expectations. Euro weeklies looked pretty bleak imo, storm tracks look underneath of us but the continent is flooded with warm pac air. Perfect track rainstorms may be the theme much like 97-98. I do think it'll be wet though so there's a chance snowfall could end up surprising like 2015-2016 if everything comes together in a favorable week or two period(cold air, blocking). I don't see a 6 week hard freeze like last year thats for sure... I think DJF temps averages +2 - +4, precip is above normal, snow below normal. I honestly just hope we don't get skunked again like 19-20 or 22-23. Temps: Dec +1 - +3 Jan +2 - + 4 Feb +3 - +5 Precip: Dec: Above average Jan: Average Feb: Above Average
  10. SnowGoose69
    In recent weeks we have all seen those posts that most El Ninos in recent times the Nov pattern repeated in December...well yeah, probably not gonna happen this time. I'd be surprised if the +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern dominated December in a +3 El Nino. Obviously the whole PV weakening is what will throw a wrench into the whole history but another case of I think nobody knows what will happen this winter.
  11. Brewbeer
    I think he means his grass
  12. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah I'm liking this idea myself as of late. The 70 and 100 hPa level anomalies currently observed may be related.
  13. roardog
    I wonder if the recent big jump in Nino 4 anomalies and the +SOI is related. Could easterlies be pulling some of that warm water a little back to the west?
  14. SnowGoose69
    You'd assume based on where the PDO is now and its tendency the last 2 winters from what it WAS on 11/1 to where it translated the remainder of the winter that probably is true. I don't see the PDO going from -0.7 to -1.6 when the last 2 winters in what was more a colder neutral setup it went towards neutral both times.
  15. Terpeast
    Another possibility is that the stronger mid latitude ridging (which also contributes to the NW Pac marine heat wave) is behind the strat warming. No science behind this, just speculation.
  16. LakePaste25
    PNA probably stays ++ all winter. Remember one of the measuring points lies in the SE US, so the SE trough combined with the GOA low centered just offshore of western Canada will keep it positive.
  17. SnowGoose69
    It depends WHY its happening though. Is it a product of the strong El Nino or the location of the anomalies? If so it probably means another SSW in Jan/Feb is unlikely unless somehow the El Nino is still at very strong magnitude at that time. But usually by then its weakening fairly quickly.
  18. OldSkool
    Watering your cabbage?
  19. eyewall
    Yep the double dip of Falls Lake is just about complete, meaning it is about to match the summer low within the next day or so.
  20. GaWx
    Whereas the GEFS -AO looks significantly less impressive than yesterday, the +PNA still looks very impressive for at least the 3rd day in a row: 10/27 run: 10/28 run: 10/29 run: even a bit more impressive Granted, the GEFS has had a +PNA bias averaged out the last 3 months, but the bias has had only ~half the magnitude of its -AO bias, and it has been mainly after day 7. So, perhaps it’s a bit too +PNA late in the run but otherwise likely has the right idea. I’ll for now assume it has the right idea for the first half of Nov with a PNA of near or above +1 most of the days. What other Nino first half of Nov had a mainly +PNA that was pretty high? 2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953
  21. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah, I'm not sure it's all that real either... as winter enthusiasts, we would rather not see the cumulative error products for D7 and D10 leads indicating a 2 SD positive busting ..haha.. prooobably's a red flag. It could also correct -
  22. Today
  23. WinterWolf
    Keep her going…. K&R Extended season farmers market.
  24. snowman19
    The EURO refuses to back down whatsoever. Still insists on a December peak and holds on to the astronomical, record-shattering warmth in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4 In other non ENSO news, the +QBO has fully downwelled to the bottom of the stratosphere and continues to strengthen. A very strong positive event has developed. And as @LakePaste25 and myself suspected, the rise in the PDO continues….up to -0.72 I still suspect we see it go weak positive by winter
  25. Damage In Tolland
    14 days straight no rain , another 7 until we maybe get some.. heading out to water the garden !
  26. ChescoWx
    Agree 100% the actual data is clear and consistent across the entire USA not just Yellow Medicine or Chester County.
  27. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. Point taken, which @Typhoon Tipand many of us agree with. In case you missed it yesterday, Eric also suspects the occurrence of this very early SSW is connected in some way to the very strong and E based Nino: I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.
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