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Now that was a cool 12z suite.

What are you smoking?

Zero snow here

For anyone keeping model-score, the UK is very unsupportive of a Thurs-Fri snowstorm at the end of its run. It looks even worse than the GFS.

Euro Ensembles Tony?

Toboggans on a 2” glacier in Moosup.

At the time it was the model suite that was out, but the other guidance showed that too. At least the 12z euro looked better today. It would just be nice to get multiple model runs showing something more favorable instead of a random set of guidance here or there doing it and then going back to ass. Let’s just stabilize something good for once.

I hear that train way way off in the distance... some good vibes coming in on the 12z.

Jan 94 Gardiner, Maine 26 3 -16 T T 25 27 11 -21 T T 25 28 45 -1 1.61 2.5 24 29 41 18 .01 21 30 18 0 21 31 15 -10 21

Great, pond hockey on my driveway after the next cutter.

Thats the marine layer or coastal front. ERI is very susceptible to sleet and poor snowgrowth. Other than March 18 that is the reason you see drop off

@40/70 Benchmark getting back to the end of last weeks discussion regarding that fast flow stuff...I retract what I had stated and I will also add that anything blaming fast flow is also voodoo...to a degree

100% probably one of the better model suites of the winter thus far. Bottom line: there's potential next week, but no one should be spiking the ball. I fully expect swings with each run, hoping to at least see a trend at 18z where things are still there.

I think what a lot of people here forget that you need everything to come together perfectly to get a big snowstorm for the coastal corridor. Cold air in place, storm diving down to the gulf of mexico, picking up moisture, coming up the coast. Or energy from Canada merging with a coastal system to throw snow back in to the big cities (eg Miller A or Miller B systems) It is not easy to get all the pieces in place for a 12"+ system. More likely we are going to get clipper type systems with light amounts, or that might get energized a bit as they approach the coast to give us systems that give us 2" - 8" of snow. Not to mention that all of the models have greater degree of error the further out they try to predict. You get a model showing a huge coastal system on one run, and on the next it is suppressed way to the south.

What a beautiful day it’s been today being outside and raking up leaves at the new pit. Lawn cleanup in January. Can’t beat it.

Yeah, those trying to use flooding pics in Miami as an example of sea level rise and climate change are being completely dishonest and/or patently doomers. And yes, if some in this thread want to label us "deniers", I'm going to label them doomers. Fair is fair.

Welcome back Mitch, i have been waiting for you.

Yes, and as I pointed out, it wasn't just comparing the magnitude of the extremes on both sides, it was the geographic extent as well. Most of Canada, a huge country, was well below normal last month.

First problem is relying on the GEFS GFS products for anything past day4

yup, Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream.

If we waste that look around MLK Day on the euro, we suck. - Extremely tall west coast ridge - deep deep eastern trough - a little bit of ridging in west Atlantic - SER nowhere in sight - troughing east of Hawaii If you showed me the 500mb look with no context, I’d assume you’re showing me an analog for a memorable storm.

For the first time since November, I'm using my fan. I can feel it getting warmer...

I have a “work” beer tasting in 6 minutes. Probably 18 beers plus. So when I get back in here, please forgive me now, but let’s get that winter white gold while we can!

Was a very cold morning as the storm moved in. Temps rose from the single digits into the teens when the snow started. Then rose into the 20s at the height of the storm.

In Jan 94 had a midnight high of 49 and still finished BN with midnight low of 2 lol