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Nam

South and more precip

Oh I get it now, you must have just hung up with t-blizz. You must be in the wrong forum man. It's all about the winter ter, snow, cold, ice.... As I say to anybody else around me, if you hate the cold that much, then move to a warmer climate.

Can we just go back to 1-3 and 2-5…ya, that’s understandable. All this 75% of seeing more than this low number, or 25% of seeing more than this higher number..really?

I'd assume the weeklies respond to the teleconnections that it forecasts. So when the teleconnections remain stuck in a moderate -PNA stage as opposed to approaching +PNA territory, that allows the weeklies to show a warm January, as they are currently showing at the moment. Still will likely require a big change in the pacific in order to force that omega ridge out of the Central US. As long as that persists (which has been the past week), most of the northeast (outside of northern new england) will struggle to remain cold.

Yes. A La Nina is always more hostile in the south. Here in the north it looks fine. And even in the NE. By mid January temps are avg to below avg the rest of January as we get into the climatological coldest time of year. Again...euro has not done well....but still, im looking forward to what Jan/Feb may bring

18z NAM

In a few more days yes..although we will still be losing time in the morning until about 1/4. But just like in summer, as soon as summer rolls in..within a few days we start losing time.

Indeed, the warmest Euro Weeklies run so far this season is still yesterday’s as todays is slightly less warm during several weeks in the E US overall. So, slightly better than yesterday but still ugly overall for cold lovers in the E US overall. It doesn’t look as good as two runs ago that were all NN to slightly BN throughout the E US 1/12-2/1. Todays for that period is mainly AN in most of the E US for that 3 week period. Consistent with that, today’s doesn’t show signs of a building +PNA in the means like the run from 2 days ago showed. A year ago at this time the EW were quite cold for much of Jan, which got me so excited and verified very well. As always when it’s warm, I’ll continue to hope it busts badly.

You’re right it’s not cold, it’s nice out. So many people out jogging, walking the dog, kids playing in the park, people sitting outside enjoying the sun in their lawn chairs, smells of BBQ’s going with people playing corn hole, have some people hiking along trails. It’s not cold

I did notice Eric says compared to normal. Whatever normal is for us anymore. I suspect he'll be backtracking within days

Agreed. These people saying that it's cold are crazy! They are likely just used to the string of extremely warm Decembers that we've had.

Yeah, I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the first day of winter & Eric has definitely been wrong before. He seems to be a little more unhinged this year.

I’m just not sure why so many are doom & gloom when it’s only December 21st. Many act like December is supposed to be a snowy month. Webb along with others I believe overthink forecasting. It will be interesting how it changes with AI taking over a lot of the forecasting.

Keep in mind, a lot of what Webb talks about is in regards to how things will affect areas East of the Apps. For me, I'm certain that the Aleutian high will break down, they all do. Where we go when it does, I don't know.

Webb is knowledgeable but changes his mind all the time. He’s more negative than he is positive. Seems many on other forums cancel winter before it’s even begun.

Goodbye La Nina?

Gotcha. It's a bit confusing as that's opposite of how they present their probability maps where the lower number is "90% chances of seeing that amount" and the higher number is "10% chances of seeing that amount"

Fair

I must point out the irony that today is the first official day of winter and the 7am snow depth has fallen to 0 at DTW for the first time since 7am November 29.

I respect the knowledge base for sure. Just not always the way its conveyed or responded to when counters are presented. Either way, I believe it's wise we maintain a diverse portfolio of follows this time of year. Lot of credible voices out there, not all are doom and gloom on this first day of winter.

They have it right. 25th percentile would mean a 75% chance of seeing more snow than that amount.

Days starting to get longer.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Below are my obs from Thorndale in December 1998 and from the Coatesville 2W NWS observer. Not too much snow but just enough for the White Christmas