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At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler..

Based on radar I may have to go out and shovel again before long.

Was hoping for a better presentation. I'm glad it's raining but it looks like the steady stuff may be zipping up into PA.

Thanks so much! We can see again! Per the graph you provided it is going about as expected at 30 mb, which the table at the following link shows: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data This data had left off with Feb ‘26, which was then the 10th month in a row of a 30 mb -QBO (E QBO) and was starting to rise: 2025 12.11 10.55 11.82 6.94 -4.59 -13.72 -19.99 -22.28 -24.26 -24.65 -25.35 -26.92 2026 -25.51 -23.13 Looking at the widely followed 30 mb level on your graph, the QBO had one more strong negative (strong E) in March followed by a sharp rise from April through Sep to typical solid positive (W) territory. The graph, including when looking at past patterns and projecting ahead, confirms the earlier confident predictions of a positive (W) QBO at 30 mb this winter.

Even though the CFS is currently too cool in Nino 1+2, the updated seasonal model update still has an east based El Niño lingering into next July with strong WWBs continuing.

You're not wrong, but there's a lot more continuous, preserved forest in northern new england than in southern new england. A lot of the forest in Rhode Island is wild regrowth over abandoned farm land. I've found the variety and quality of the foliage better in NNE with better viewing points due to elevation - just my opinion. You are absolutely right that there is great spots to see foliage all over NE though, and you don't need to take a trip up north to find it.

Impressive heavy rain band overnight. More here (parts of Triad area) than I was expecting, but will take it.

Good rain event in Charlottesville with over 2.1 inches in the city with heavy rain overhead. In NOVA for the weekend after seeing Maybe Happy Ending with my family yesterday and have just passed 1 inch of rain.

I cannot remember the last time we got such a wonderful prolonged rain event. We ended up with a much-needed soaking rain that added up to a total of 3.34”. Thank you God!

I look forward to the county telling me that water restrictions need to remain in place next week

Getting smoked one final time

I'm pretty sure That I started earlier than you. I was surprised when I got up at 6am that .50 had already fallen.

Euro says.. "no"

1.12 so far in Purcellville

1.70

This band coming through Catawba County right now means business. Just went from 3 inches to 4 inches in the past 25 minutes.

Yeah. The rain sound is thought i was hearing was wind. Pretty much nothing here yet. .19. Looks like our area will fall short.

Pouring here in Thurmont for Colorfest. Not a good day to walk around town.

Again we are roughly about a month and a half earlier than in 1997/98

October is continuing the seasonal model error for at least one month out. The seasonal models from early September had the typical -EPO October El Nino ridge near Alaska and NW Canada.This has been the seasonal model forecast error since May. The month to date has the 500mb ridge shifted further south over the CONUS with lower heights near Alaska. The next week will add to this pattern lowering heights more near Alaska and maintaining the CONUS ridge. This will be the furthest south ridge position for an El Nino October even when just using the 1972,1982,1997,2015, and 2023 super composite. Month to date Forecast through October 19th October forecast issued in early September October El Niño composite

The early morning band that went through McDowell county was intense.

I was just checking your station, and I saw that. You got more than twice what I got so far. I'm only at .38" as I type this. Not sure if it's because you got under some heavier rain, it started earlier, or perhaps both.