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This year seems to have been a bigger and deeper bite
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I don’t have the data to support, but it seems to be very cloudy most days. Very few sunny days
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Large D4 30% contour for much of IL and parts of WI, IN, IA, MO, AR, TN and KY. Mention of strong tornadoes but not as strong of wording as I'd expect. Regardless, shaping up to be another all hazards possible event especially if things can remain more supercellular. ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
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2026-2027 El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated -
I have Sirius but also FM AM and Spotify. I listen to Boomer and Gio in the morning on my way to work and listen to Yankee games on 660 AM. Brooms are out
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2026-2027 El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The comparison doesn't make sense because waters are so much warmer overall now vs 97. You have to consider the anomalies compared to currents sst norms. -
I don’t think it will be that dire.
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I'd be lying if I said I knew a thing about Makai Lemon. It sucks we had to trade with the Cowboys, but the Cowboys are dumb asses, so hopefully Howie fleeced them! Crowded receivers room, sounds like SOMEONE has to go.
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I knew the warm March and 90s in mid April would come back to bite us.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
NepaJames8602 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Snow is back in the grids here in the Poconos Sat night LOL. Saturday Night Rain and snow showers before 4am, then a chance of snow showers. Low around 33. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Sunday A chance of snow showers before 7am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 7am and 8am, then a chance of rain showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. -
The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressive negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.
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Hopefully it can get to the areas in upstate NY where the reservoirs are located.
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I feel like we've done ok here. Alot of sunny days which I'm fine with even if it's cold.
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According to my weather app, today is the last sunny day for a week and a half
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I might take a ride to monticello casino, i'm hearing they may get a few inches of snow tomorrow! Gamble a little blackjack and get some snow best day
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Can’t remember the last time I turned on a radio, in the car or elsewhere. Min of 24F.
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Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.
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Sadly radio is a dying medium. Average age of a listener is 50+
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This whole spring has been crappy on LI. We had a few days of nice weather. There is a big difference in the weather in Morristown NJ and the weather in central Long Island. The wind is something new. Windy every day it seems
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2026-2027 El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history - Today
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“Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?
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Down to 7 days! A touchdown + the kick away
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I'm right near the gradient-could be an inch of rain in Greenwich and nothing in New Haven.
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We were due for some crappy weather. Still a tight gradient tomorrow b/w alot of rain and little rain...mainly NE of the city
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We got two lines of storms last night, one out ahead of the main line and then the weakening main line (although I got most of the rain from the main line). Together, I got 1.02" of rain. A band just west and north got up to 2". Totals dropped off quickly east and south of CR. My April total is up to 6.71".
