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  2. bluewave
    A stronger east based event. Not necessarily the exact anomaly distribution. What do you mean by trending colder since we are just starting to get into the winter range now from earlier forecasts?
  3. ensonerd1233e343
    Well the second eof i would add would be more reprsenttive of central pacfic el ninos for example in the dec jan eofs the -olr is further east then many central pac ninos and so is the minimum mslp correlation on the mei map l you can also see the sst are more favorable for ep nino. As for v wind no its not as important as u wind in the dynamics of enso sure v wind can be an indirrect enso forcer but it isnt as direct as u wind because u wind triggers the down/upwelling kelvin waves which are critical to enso v wind can do no such thing. In terms of wind and slp going hand in hand thats true so if we got rid of v wind i would say we can count things all the same. As for the wwbs yes they are important but im saying an enso event shouldnt be punished inhertly bc its wwbs were 20 degrees west of typical that could still produce a strong event just more center based then typical for strong events. As for ohc the reason I was adding it wass because mei is designed to measure how coupled the system is and to me high ohc is part of that coupling as well s ocean sfc currents. In terms of mid lattidues I dont really have anything to say on that tbh
  4. dailylurker
    Im getting more heavy tropical rain showers. My area is definitely doing well today. I'm sitting in my truck getting ready for a hike.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree that it's more east-based than 1997, but that is beside the point. You are obsessing over the temp anomalies themselves....it will be above average. We get that. The model will be too cold...got it. But why is it trending colder this late in the game is my point.
  6. bluewave
    This is an even stronger east based event than 1997-1998 was. The charts below are for what actually verified in C and F departures for that era. It was more extreme than general El Niño correlations.
  7. EastCoast NPZ
    Got a whopping .19".
  8. RickinBaltimore
    Rain stopped at Coppin State for now and sky is clearing. Absolutely sickeningly humid though, to the point the front doors of my building are fogged over.
  9. bluewave
    Super El Niños are significantly warmer than canonical El Niño patterns. None of the seasonal models were warm enough for either 2023-2024 or 2015-2016. This was probably the case also with whatever guidance they were using for the 1997-1998 winter forecast also. Correlations can give general ideas of which areas will be typically warmer or relatively cooler, but are not designed to handle extreme events like this one and the magnitudes of both 500 mb ridging and warmth.
  10. Chicago Storm
    stfu already
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important not to automatically dismiss the correction towards default El Nino leading into the strongest El Nino in history.
  12. jewell2188
    Been pretty consistent down pours all morning in warrenton. Sun peaks of for couple minutes and boom another down pour
  13. aldie 22
    About 5 miles N of Winchester on the east side of 81
  14. aldie 22
    I'm sure he picked up some today but the blob was definitely north of him this morning over me
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but was there a trend towards a more defined se trough this late in the game? I feel like that is what is important because call me crazy, but this may just be the year when a correction towards default El Nino may be the correct adjustment.
  16. Prismshine Productions
    Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  17. LakePaste25
    Makes sense to me. A stronger Nino would theoretically result in a stronger correlation to the canonical pattern that goes with it. That 23-24 map looks like it was showing warmer in both the W and SE compared to now which makes sense.
  18. Terpeast
    0.46" today so far, 2.33" MTD. Ashburn
  19. bluewave
    Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler. Verification in °C
  20. H2O
    brief shower just now and .38 from overnight to current time
  21. zwyts
    A real bon vivant. Just start a new account, loser.
  22. zwyts
    I'm asking Randy since he's an admin. Better you keep your Jew hunting buddy here.
  23. A-L-E-K
    we'll get stebo right on that
  24. OldSkool
    We also had Irene in 2011.
  25. yoda
    Could you explain more what you mean by the bolded?
  26. CoastalWx
    Might get a S coast Seabreeze type deal Friday? Big CAPE on south coast with dewpoint pooling. However it might be capped….but I could see something pop. S/W moves through late Friday night with maybe more shwrs and storms.
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