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I would like to see phase 8...the MJO has still had an allergy to phase 8 over the course of the past couple of seasons, despite the cold, which is part of the reason why the haven't seen the snow.

I bet Norwell had like 55" in 2015.

Lots of chances on the 12z Euro as you mentioned. This run didn’t fully develop any healthy systems, but lots of nickels & dimes verbatim. That being said, they added up. The run still produced 4 to 6 inches of snow for the Susquehanna Valley by day 15. Lots of time, but maybe a few opportunities in the next couple of weeks.

Looks like noise on the ens mean. Not much difference. Many more runs to go. No need to spend time trying to analyze micro differences between successive runs.

Who had 62”?

Go on?

I think that dude moved to Lunenburg

100%...same crap as last season.

Maybe Kevin had an apartment there.

It brings a decent stripe of precip on the 18th but the snow is from I-81 & west.

Yea, that's not accurate.

Yea, something clearly has changed....we just need to wait on the snow get the memo.

62” lol. Come on man. So here’s something funny. In HS when I volunteered at the NWS, I remember one of them commented they slanted their blizz 96 total to make the public more sympathetic because of the tornado earlier that summer lol.

I agree, but gonna have to wait this out....CC is definitely more feast or famine....but shit, someone tell Mother Nature it's time to eat.

I wasn't asking. The it was implied. It's what you want was my comment. .

I am actually pretty excited about this period coming up. If we can get the PV to cooperate and displace south we could get smashed. Big if though.

I actually just saved that graphic....lol

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing. But, we all know how it goes here.

The upper levels dont support it going negative sooner. Not saying that map is correct because it is most likely not close to what will actually happen. But there are is really no upper level jet that would cause it to wrap up. Its pretty dead up top.

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

Guys I just found this, which you may already be aware of. Is the score actually calculated as shown below? If so, it looks like it is calculated based strictly on the depth of the snow, the area of the land it covers, and the population inhabiting said land, and without regard to whether the location is within the 'northeast.' Edit: It does look like this is how the score is calculated. ChatGPT does a great job explaining this with examples. It mentions that it calibrates to account for population growth as well.

Nice soak job