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This is a nice synopsis of the 1998 ice event and the meteorology behind it. https://www.weather.gov/btv/25th-Anniversary-of-the-Devastating-1998-Ice-Storm-in-the-Northeast

So many food jokes today lol ends with the north fork winning the pie!

Wait, models could be wrong two weeks out?

Just going to stay in Ellicott city at my brothers since I work until late Saturday and early on sunday. Less travel, more snow. Win win

It would be pretty funny if after all the warm talk we end up with snow on Christmas.

Hey @IrishRob17 your boys at hudson valley weather ok? They have this “storm” hitting us tnite and out by tomorrow morning lol.

My dad told me a story growing up in late 1940s… Had an ice storm like that across Southern lower Michigan. This is long before the current kind of infrastructure or even highway system was nearly as evolved as it is now so probably lacks notoriety but anyway. He said that after about an inch and a half of accreted ice, it transitioned to snow and they had 8 inches on top. That’s something I’ve always wanted to see - a major on top a major

it does suck. Everyone has said it, but we need a region-wide 6-10” snow.

The craziest thing is that before 2020 I would have laughed at a statement like this. But after the near complete shutouts in 2020 and 2023, something like this could actually happen.

Just constant fringe jobs the past 5 years out here. It sucks..

For verification purposes later, here was the snow map that fell out of my forecast this afternoon. If I were to say there are two areas I'm most concerned about, it's potential for a locally higher amount in the secondary snowbelt or western Cleveland metro area (i.e. western Cuyahoga or Lorain, Medina, Summit, Portage or Trumbull) if banding settles into those areas Saturday night or Sunday...and also potential for the eastern lakeshore to again come in lower than forecast if banding doesn't settle over that area late Saturday afternoon/evening.

snow looks very scarce :/

Either that or the Nam is out to lunch . The model is so weird. Sometimes it nails storms and sometimes it does whacky things.

Fv3 finally caved

you're positioned well for an ice storm or two; it's not snowing so let's hope for some epic ice?'

17 years ago today…hard to believe. Almost all of this fell at about 31F

Temps aren't going to be far from freezing the entire event. Thinking 10:1 is the best we'll achieve...

Yeah, I mentioned ice earlier… I haven’t had a chance to expand on any of that. In short it does look like we’re trying to move toward more of polar boundary being on the doorstep. No need to expand on those kinds of vulnerabilities. It put’s a lot of stuff back in play. It doesn’t look like a clean warm departure as much as it did yesterday - plenty of time

Let’s reel her in

Nice to see even if I'm on the flurry fringe. It can still be cold and snow in December in the Mid Atlantic!

this isn't even a half bad signal lol (unfortunately it's 300 hours out)

Seems like nam and hrrr are picking up on dry air coming down from the north

WB OZ 3K NAM compared to 18Z.

Booyah!!!

I’m glad Greenfield was never in play with this. It makes my frustration factor zero. Hoping southern peeps can at least get 1-2”.