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For most of the past decade we've had cold West/warm East setups nationally when the subsurface is warming rapidly. You can sort of see it earlier in the month when it was very cold in the West near the peak of the current subsurface warming burst. I think its pretty likely late winter the subsurface heat will collapse quite rapidly, and so it should get fairly cold/stormy in the East at that point. Whether that's mid-Jan, mid-Feb, or mid-Mar makes all the difference. The first bit of research I ever did on El Nino was regarding March heavy snows locally. From 1931 to 2014, we never had any March with over 3-4 inches of snow in low-solar conditions and without El Nino. The last high solar El Nino March was 2014-15, and we had...9.6 inches of snow on Feb 26-28, with the mountains getting 50-100 inches in five days in late Feb/early March. 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20 were not high solar, and failed on the heavy March snow, and then 2023-24 failed as well (although honestly, March 2023 was more El Nino-ish by the subsurface +0.84 v. --0.54 in March 2024 and it snowed quite a bit in March 2023 throughout the Southwest. Remember the blizzard warnings in San Diego County?) If we get a warm subsurface and high solar in March 2027, I'll be on the lookout for blizzard/heavy snow risks throughout the Southwest. It used to happen in almost every high solar El Nino March. But recent El Ninos have either died too early or lacked high solar. We've had up to 14 inches of snow in March here, but never more than 3.5 in a non-high solar March, its literally 10x more common to get heavy March snow here with v. without it (>3", since average is 1.5" last century, and under 1.0" past 30 years). Mar-Apr 1973 locally had over 22 inches of snow, following only 15 inches in Oct-Feb, its the best winter here after 1914-15. My guess is the WPO/PNA/EPO/NAO/AO will all be pretty volatile compared to traditional expectations if the warmth is far enough east and warm enough by magnitude relative to position. I'd really like to see what 30.0C+ waters in Nino 3/3.4 or even 1.2 would do honestly.

Man I should write to my VA state house rep to ask if they could ever make a program like this for my state.

That's cruel. That poor man was so hot and all he ever wanted, was some cool water. Tuco got his later, though.

We have a Winnah!

There are only 3 teams with a worse record in the shitty ass AL. Still a chance tho, so lets be buyers at the deadline! NFL preseason football just a few weeks away. Lets go Ravens! (Please find a center)

Like clockwork.

If it weren't for pitchers making awful mistakes, Mayo wouldn't be cranking the occasional long HRs. His swing has more holes than a goddamn golf course.

Remember, Mayo was one of Elias' coveted prospects. An untouchable who was off limits when it came to trade talks. Dismantle this fucking team from top to bottom.

Yet another pathetic Orioles effort. Mayo is gonna hit .179 with 20 HRs and 50 RBI lol. Gunnar cant buy a hit. God this team is awful.

Thinking back to the conversation earlier today I came across this. A worthwhile read https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/08/reading-crisis-postliterate-age/687618/?gift=URojiRC-naOWGBfsE7oNmha0OJUXq9hYgtDbh92KSCg

I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with.

this video is from vietnam, but there was, incredibly, another strong tornado in china a few days ago https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq61d22ved2o

I'll believe it when I see it

82 here as well. No rain but not a bad day.

This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.

I don't think we are going to see wall-wall -PNA.... I agree the polar domain will be crucial.

SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 352 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2026 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN BY VARIOUS QUALITY CONTROLLED OBSERVATIONS SYSTEMS FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. *************MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX (113F AND ABOVE)************* LOCATION MAXIMUM TIME/DATE COMMENTS HT INDEX MEASURED (DEG F) SOUTH CAROLINA ..BEAUFORT COUNTY BEAUFORT MCAS 114.0 256 PM 7/08 ASOS ..BERKELEY COUNTY HUGER 114.0 114 PM 7/08 MESONET WITHERBEE 113.0 1215 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL ..CHARLESTON COUNTY AWENDAW/WAMBW 116.0 147 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 114.0 308 PM 7/08 ASOS CHARLESTON EXE ARPT 113.0 1255 PM 7/08 AWOS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 113.0 200 PM 7/08 OFFICIAL NWS OB. ..COLLETON COUNTY BENNETTS POINT 113.0 1200 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL

Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. I think the whole thing’s just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong warm ENSO event I guess they reserve the superlatives. But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably going thru based upon simple observation of the empirical temperature channels It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… there’s gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts.

No rain today, but it was a little drier and a bit cooler. My high temperature was 82. Storms are still firing along the Tennessee border so maybe a nighttime shower is ahead.

Man...radar looked like James City got slammed! Heard food lion there without power during storm! (Near bridge)

Okay I love severe hurricanes with all my heart! YOU GUYS GOTTA SEE THIS! RAW FOOTAGE: LANDFALL OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MICHAEL - MEXICO BEACH, FL This is some of the best Michael footage I have ever seen! Especially from 2:45:00 !

Lots of lightning...power went out...BUT...not much rain. Definitely enough for the grass to be happy. Under 0.25. SW WAKE cashed in!

Possible little or no rain next two weeks . What we all had this week was good . It will evaporate quickly. We’ll see how it plays out. This is acting opposite of typical super Nino summer with above normal and dry

Looks warm and boring for the foreseeable future.

-EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events.