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  2. A-L-E-K
    grateful for the comma head graze job as we could use the rain
  3. Typhoon Tip
    Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so with the ensuing +ENSO state.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might see a little bit of a spike happening in the next few weeks/months
  5. frontranger8
    Had .3" yesterday and another .15" overnight from heavy drizzle. Still looks good to pick up at least another .5" from this storm today.
  6. sbnwx85
    #ready2bgusted
  7. Typhoon Tip
    Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)
  9. WxWatcher007
    Lawns looking great across the area
  10. WxWatcher007
    Not really much of a signal yet, but if there’s a window for homebrew I think it’ll be early. Really hope I’m not hopping on a flight to chase a 45mph TS this season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic.
  13. MANDA
    90-95 along the urban corridor over NJ seems very realistic.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year.
  15. BlizzardNole
    It feels so hot already at 85, I'm dreading upper 90s! I bet on Friday we see temps sinking thru the 50s during the afternoon with showers and a stiff east breeze
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI.
  17. winterwx21
    I'm probably gonna hit 94 or 95 today which is a few degrees hotter than yesterday. Gonna have to go pretty far east for that advertised cooldown today with the backdoor front.
  18. kdxken
  19. snowman19
    I don’t think the RONI has any problem at all achieving super status. +IOD development is common amongst all the big time (super) El Niño events, i.e. 1997……
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Ensembles haven’t changed much. Still looks wet. Only concerning thing I have is boundary setting up north and west of triangle area. Seems to have trended stronger with SER recently meaning boundary is pushed back somewhat
  21. winterwx21
    We desperately need the rain but I'd hate to see most of the holiday weekend ruined. I'm hoping for 2 out of the 3 days being not too bad. It's possible that Saturday ends up being the very rainy day with improvement for Sunday and Monday. It would still be cloudy and cool but hopefully dry enough for cooking outside. I wouldn't mind a soaking on Saturday but not too bad for Sunday and Monday, which some model runs have been showing. But of course there's still the risk of 2 out the 3 days being rainy -- a long way to go to figure it out. Anyway this is rough having this type of heat right now with it being so dry. The vegetable garden needs a lot of water.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty interesting that warm water extends all the way from South America to the Phillippines along the equator, as bluewave pointed out.
  23. MJO812
    This sucks. Im sweating so much.
  24. Met1985
    This is exactly what we need. Ample supply of gulf moisture. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  25. A-L-E-K
    looks like we should get clipped with some garden variety rains here before too long, could use the rain too edit: snuck into a watch, ready for more comma head winds
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that helps boost the RONI.
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