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Personally, I think an Icestorm is due. Cannot tell when or where, but I think we are due.

A lot of people don't know this, but a composite for the most warm 10mb Winters (NDJFM) have above average temps in the Northeast, US and cold Stratosphere Winters below average temps in the Northeast, US. The anomaly over Greenland extends south. Of course in shorter time periods there is AO-correlation.

WB latest EURO weeklies run for the 7 day period ending 12/13 is not a torch. Is is going to snow in December? Who knows!

Yeah, Not sure where this "fake" term comes from, But sitting in the woods this morning wasn't fake, 45/27°F presently.

Mitch, The modeled 10 mb/60N wind rise after the historic dip is by no means faster than what commonly happens with SSWs, especially early season SSWs. Looking at the image below, one can that the plunges downward from SSWs are often followed by pretty sharp rises soon afterward. By that time, the SSW has already done its “damage” so to speak. Look at the SSWs in here (circled). I count 8 SSWs prior to Jan 1st: 1952, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1998 Most of these other than 1984 rose fairly steeply within a few weeks, which is what the models are showing for 2026 (assuming they will even be right obviously). Even some of those after Jan 1st rose steeply. @snowman19@Winter Wizard

I don’t know. The sun angle should be premium after daylight savings time starts.

The quacks are just trying to cash in on the normie/weenie crowd with the SSWE hype and clickbait/viewbait. The old days were chill when the quacks didn’t have as many platforms to broadcast their wacky stuff.

I have been following this all year. Gem has lead the way and makes things look even more robust

Looking a bit too warm for Denver proper, but could be a big event for 6000'+. Obviously still plenty of time for things to change, but I don't see a good cold air source for this one. Excellent for mountains and Castle Rock down to the springs.

IMO I see no reason to deviate from my +QBO/El Nino December guess. I completely agree with @Winter Wizard take: “Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.”

John, I’m being extra wary of the GEFS AO progs because they’ve been verifying significantly too -AO, especially in week 2: July 1st-Oct 28th verification: AO +0.6559 per image below vs mean GEFS progs of (all from image below): day 7: +0.287 (too -AO most days since Sep 1st) day 10: +0.0533 (too -AO since Sep 1st by larger amount) day 14: -0.086 (too -AO since Aug 25th by even larger amount)

We have some cancelling now…it’s comical. I mean, if that’s how one feels…then stay off the board until it’s time to gloat at the end of March. If we end up under 20” for the season as a whole, than I will certainly give the rat callers their credit. I have No issues doing that.

Agreed that if it rises fast, it won't be a good thing for a cold or snowy December especially in light of enso climo. But if you go to the link below for that graph, as recently as 10/14 or 10/15, the PV split (I'll call it for ease) wasn't even showing up on that weekly prog, and was very slow thereafter to show the extent of the PV's demise. So I guess, probably because I've lived in the M. Atlantic snow hole for so many years, I'll not worry about the state of the PV come December or trust the PV forecast at this distance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610140000

i'm trying to figure out if i need to establish alternate/ancillary sources. This measure would be for the off chance that greed and/or corruption and/or the unstoppable epidemic of growing standardizing idiocy, or some combination of all these..., at last succeed in hiding the telecon from general access. It is getting harder and harder to find what should be free. As an aside, humanity really needs a comet named Humility to set it back to something like a realization of how bad their shit stinks and humility. LOL... but this is a lot for an answer to "...looking for something particular?" I know. hahaha Seriously, ... I may have to pick a source and I'd like it to be good. So right now the CPC - the only remaining easy access site - indicates a descending AO modality, ending in a dish-pan negative mode ... -.75 or -1 heading into the first week of Novie. However, the CPC assesses the AO based upon the geopotential height anomaly. This can be misleading at times... because the specific curvature geometry of the isohypses around the stereographic projection of the hemisphere are not always consistent with actual high latitude blocking we'd normally associate with the -AO state. Case in point, last night's extended GEFs rendition around the hemisphere. There is a some semblance, though very modest, of a block in the NE EPO domain N of Alaska there, but that's hardly substantive. This is sort of suggestive that the AOs negative might be coming more from numerical orientation, where positives are N and negatives S; but, not being representative very well in the orientation of the height gradient/geometry. It's kind of fake - so to speak. Other sources/ corroboration might be useful here. That all said, so long as we're on the telecon topic. This is an impressive PNA signal frankly. That image above does fit the +PNA quite well, and so the spatial orientation fit the numerology - and said graphics are remarkably well clustered for late mid and extended range...

This ++PMM setting more records….

Out to lunch

Thanks. I don’t doubt the bad actors! For me this is introducing more variability for Dec than I had assumed previously. Based on @snowman19posts on +QBO/ENSO analogs as well as my own research to confirm Adam’s mild E US forecast, I had been thinking mild Dec except possibly NN SE, especially deep SE. But with this historically very early SSW coming, I feel that there’s increased uncertainty for Dec. Per @Stormchaserchuck1the avg lag from an SSW to first getting well down into the troposphere early in the season is 35-40 days if I recall correctly. This would mean ~Dec 9-14 for it to first reach well down. And then it would last for a period of time (most likely 2-3 weeks minimum per history). Thus, this increases the possibility of a cold overall E US Dec, especially mid to late month and especially SE US, vs my prior thinking from very low to a nontrivial chance.

I thought that the earlier in the season SSW's happen, the longer they take to propagate to the troposphere? 30-45 days is what I believe I read for November.

This is just extraordinary at this point….the onslaught of WWBs and DWKWs is progged to continue into November. Here comes another one. It’s been relentless since the end of March. This is certain to result in more surface and subsurface warming……the strongest El Niño in history is all but a guarantee…. We have left 1997 in the dust:

The great thing about analogs is that even the most "perfect" match does not mean the winter will be even close to it.

Down the line, that seems like a discouraging sign for December. After initial weakening, the PV rapidly rebuilds and that is another piece of evidence pointing toward a very warm December. which is a strong signal in historic analogs. Recall that last year, the disruption occurred in late November and that contributed to a cold start in December with an Arctic spell mid-month. The end of December into early January torched for the majority of the CONUS right as the PV rebuilt. I suspect this time, if it even couples to the troposphere, it would only really benefit Europe with cold/snow based on the large scale pattern. Maybe it implies potential for disruptions or splitting later in the season, but historically that is less likely with this ENSO/QBO combo. Either way, I think there are bad actors who are clinging onto this as confirmation bias of cold/snow in order to sell subscriptions or get social media views.

Not much history/experience with Mr Webb's conjectural advances in all honesty ...Alhough, yeah - I know there's a reposting habit in this social media. I am aware the man exists... if 'man' is how he identifies, notwithstanding. heh No, but in a vacuum, we'd need to have some sort of physically plausible "connective tissue" between the stratospheric polar vortex and the ENSO. I know of none. Frankly, everything I've been taught, read since, or experientially observed in real time over decades suggests there exist a direct ENSO-to-vortex wiring like that. However, this doesn't rule out an indirect causal linkage... perhaps a time lag? - but such a conjecture sees logical problems of it's own. Namely, this +ENSO is new - despite the histrionics and empirical eye-pop numbers - both - it is recent, so lag is immediately suss. Moreover, we just past through summer... First, the only way there is to connect the tropics to the stratosphere altitudes up N is via tropospheric planetary-wave transports and decay ... (that's also the seeding pathway to the SSW phenomenon, btw - although there's papers about extraterrestrial source but excluding for brevity ...). Therein is the logical/epistemic breakdown: planetary wave transport, through mid latitude weak gradient summertime/seasonality, is almost non-existent. It is too weak and transport momentum decay prior to the intrusion altitudes of the PV/high altitudes ( stratosphere) over the AO domain. Most of autumn is in fact still in this limitation until later then now. In simple terms, the canonical summer/early to mid autumn hemisphere is physically excluding those two disparate fields from the only pathway empirically and geo-physically demoed as a means for the S to affect the N. None of this offers a sense of support to Webb's 'hunch'.

"I am skeptical that the polar vortex is well enough defined this early in the season for there to be any impacts on the troposphere. That said, if there is an impact on our sensible weather, which I am doubtful of, then I would expect a very cold November." Seems about right. Personally, I think we are waiting on two main things to determine the early character of this winter. 1. Does the wet pattern start by the end of next weekend? Models have advertised this for a while and I'd argue its the first real sign of the el-nino coupling with the atmosphere in a way that matters for us. If this pattern is continuously can-kicked that is a sign of trouble for our STJ hopes this winter. 2. Does the SSW occur? If so, do we see a related cold air outbreak on the models for late November? Additionally, how does the AO and NAO respond. If we get a favorable AO/NAO showing up on forecasts for November and December I'd argue that is a good sign we might have a shot this winter.

Weird to see clouds in the sky. I swear I haven't seen any for like 10 days