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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure below average, but LES belts are a wild card. 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016.
  3. kdxken
    Friend stopped by not an hour ago has a place in Big sky. He left for just that reason. Who knew SNE is the temperate part of the country?
  4. BuffaloWeather
    Whats the average snowfall for Super El Nino years look like in the northeast/Great lakes? The temps are insane here in Buffalo.
  5. SchaumburgStormer
    110’ of water loss over a basin that size is fucking insane.
  6. WestBabylonWeather
    Another top ten
  7. weatherwiz
    the heat will always find you
  8. weatherwiz
    Gotta be extremely careful here just rip and reading total QPF maps. It might be difficult to get widespread amounts as modeled. The axis of highest totals is going to be confined to where the warm front is located and this will be a narrow axis. Also potential for this to close off to our west which would introduce dry slot concerns. Going to be a quite a bit of convection though so there are going to be some areas that probably get smoked, but we may see some drastic differences in precip. amounts across the region when all said and done. There should be some concern though for some significant flash flooding but how widespread?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a situation like 2005, 2015 and 2016 where we flip with a big storm the last week of January, but it would be a mild month in the mean.
  10. SnoSki14
    If you have a strong closed low with PWATs above 2" in late July then someone's gonna see a ton of rain. Given the rains we've had this month I see a flood risk upgrade to moderate for Tuesday
  11. frd
    WPC's afternoon update below has increased totals again for the Mid Atlantic region. Here is a snippet from the AFD Mount Holly - PWats will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think it was January 2019: 2019-01-12 37 30 33.5 -3.8 31 0 0.13 1.9 0 2019-01-13 32 29 30.5 -6.7 34 0 0.71 8.3 4 2019-01-14 37 27 32.0 -5.2 33 0 T 0.1 10
  13. KakashiHatake2000
    Oh awesome seems like last time I believe but gotcha .
  14. dendrite
    Imagine moving to MT and thinking you're getting away from the heat
  15. dendrite
    Gettin' there
  16. TheDreamTraveler
    Forecast high for today is 82 and it's already 84 degrees at 2 PM. Genuinely what is going on. This has been multiple days in a row now the temp forecast has been off by multiple degrees. If it's 84 now it'll probably get to 85 or 86 by 5 PM.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about early on...forget that. December is going to be warm. Case closed. But some guidance like the JMA and EURO are trying to pull it back far enough west to salvage January....that is what I am skeptical of. I think that guidance is overdone.
  18. kdxken
    I don't get the Freedom Models. Not sure they're included in the blend.
  19. dendrite
    TKGW 49° in Durham in July is NBD.
  20. Damage In Tolland
    If you’d look at them for once you’d see the trend
  21. kdxken
    Which models are these?
  22. snowman19
  23. WxUSAF
    Yeah they are a good sign
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exciting stuff....there is a unicorn scenario in there which it pulls everything just far enough to act like a Modoki, but I would only bet on that for small periods right now.
  25. Today
  26. jaxjagman
    Most seemingly is by a MCS into the night and early morning,the low level shear and lapse rates get better leading into later today,as to where this MCS goes which seems to be middle TN or east TN is still the question,Plenty of instability.HRR shows the KI-index of 44,would be quite a light show around Nashville,probably will back down later runs on that
  27. snowman19
    We aren’t going to know how the atmosphere is going to react (forcing) to having the 30C isotherm east of the dateline until this fall. Even 1997 never saw the 30C warm pool come this far east. The models continue to show it getting all the way to 140W, which is definitely believable now given all the record WWBs and there is also no precedent for it since that has never happened before
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