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It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense. In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

Our string of very stormy near/on Halloweens is broken. The amount of extreme storms on this date is crazy. From snowtober to Sandy to The Perfect Storm to the 2017 epic 975 bomb.

A new phenomenon may be beginning know as 'El namis'

Kidding aside, we’re basically just arguing between low thickness cold and relatively higher thickness cold. You have rad pits in the northern Rockies that pull frequent subfreezing mins in July only to hit 80s in the afternoon. The cold is real, but it’s not really a sign of the intensity of the airmass. Ironically most of our cold airmasses originate from radiational cooling and deep highs in the arctic.

that tweet about sea levels in peru is nuts

I decided to take the day off and hike up Sugar Loaf Mountain. What's with the hazyness today? Low lever moisture? Wildfire smoke? Chem trails? It really limited the view and dulled the fall color. It was still a beautiful hike.

Just keeping it real ?

The recent dry pattern was kickstarted by the 2023-2024 el nino. October 2024 had zero rainfall here so maybe we are now entering another dry pattern, Ray. This October actually reminds me of it. Very not el nino like. I know you mentioned the lack of MC forcing but for now I'm going with 1965-66, 1972-73, 2001-02 and 2023-2024 as analogs. Got to put a non nino analog in there too and I refuse to use 1997-1998 as an analog it's too easy and seems intellectually lazy to me. How can el ninos be grouped by MC forcing Ray? I haven't seen this mentioned before this year. Last winter 1993-94 was thrown around as an analog. And if next winter is a la nina some will throw around 1995-96 as an analog. You'd change your mind if it was followed in sequence with the winter of 1995-96. Dry and sunny sounds much better. Give me 1965-66 1972-73 2001-02 or 2023-2024 instead. Is the Atacama Desert, the driest place on the planet, finally going to get some rain? I've wanted to visit it when all those red desert flowers bloom!

This is a fake post

Been a cool, cloudy day in the 40's with a gusty W wind. Upper 40's around midnight will be todays high with an am low of 40 which may drop below that before midnight tonight. Even so, seasonable wx.

MWN hit -47 during that early Feb 2023 blast (with gusts to 144 mph). I'd earlierfound another -47 set in January 1934 but without the site, so maybe a rad pit, maybe not.

Lol WTF boring begat boring

jesus christ this place sucks lately. I will never understand why anyone gives a fuck what someone else calls fake.

Why that color it looks like smog or smoke to me. This is a very good thing I hate el ninos. Enjoy the nice weather! Don I once saw something up here during our warm February 2018 that I still remember. No idea what it was but I'll describe it. In a completely clear blue sky there was a rainbow fragment visible at the zenith straight up but the colors were in reverse! No idea what that was or what it meant but an hour after that I was driving through NJ on my way to NY and there was a fire in the woods near I-80 where we were driving. Could there be a connection? What would what I saw be called?

I just have to ask…I get HI(tropical and all) but why NH Tom?

My cucurbits and tomatoes missed the point as well. It's possible that the record lowest temperatures in 48 of the 50 states (all but HI and possibly NH) were "fake".

a day where you can wear a hoodie and not a heavy jacket..

Hmmm...you or John not grasping or understanding...that is a tough one....let me ponder that decision lol

Ok. Bottom line, nothing is fake about any temp. Or any weather for that matter. If you want to call radiational cooling fake, the same radiational cooling that ultimately causes winter time temps, and ultimately CAA, and sound like you’re in special Ed…then that’s on you. I think we all explained it well, and made it clear. BTW…It’s 67 out…great day…but maybe it’s fake?

if it's registering on the thermometer, it is not fake, it is real nah, we are gonna keep embarrassing you on this subject for as long as you want to persist with being embarrased

I won't lie, I see no one getting tussled over frosts this fall. Every morning you seem to be the driver of the fake cold narrative, but I again understand, you are growing your vegetables getting up each morning seeing 15 posts about people with ice, 28F, dead vegetation, etc. In the afternoon, you don't seem to care as much if BDL is 71F and you are 66F, it feels normal even if the heat is fake. Honestly, we've had some deep freezes, even as low as 20F at home at 1,100ft this past week... but I'm not sure 1,800ft has gotten below 30F once, lol. The mid-slopes have been staying warmer. It's just how it is in high pressure patterns.

Region 1+2 is about to explode with warmth. A DWKW has reached the South American coast and has begun to surface, anomalies of +10C are being reported and sea level heights are at levels never seen before in history. This warmth is certain to spread into regions 3 and 3.4 in the next few weeks. Also, this WWB continues to look more and more impressive on the models, which is also going to help enhance the warming in those regions over the next several weeks….. The subsurface…..WOW

No... 32, is cold. It is not fake. I dunno...getting close to needing to call you a choice word, and walking away. haha my god