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One thing I am really starting to hone in on as we get closer to go-time is the split forcing that is prevalent until Feb, when the east-basin backs off a bit....but everything about this season screams "bipolar".

Looks like it

I was speaking more about the borrrrringgness about it but you’re not wrong

Front has gone through. Steady dry northerly wind at oriole park.

And for the end of the week? A solid nobody knows? Some models are spitting out some hefty rainfalls. I hate rain. "Finally, the guidance suite is hinting at a possible coastal low pressure some time Thursday into Friday. However, there are rather large variances in track and timing. For example, the 12Z GFS has a low pressure over the Gulf of Maine at 8 AM next Friday. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF has this same low pressure about 300 miles east of southern MD for this same time. Different positions also lead to different tracks due to interactions with a mid level trough."

Do you mean incoming weather? I thought this week has been pretty sweet.

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

I would argue that it's a bit of a net positive, but nor argument that it's not anywhere approaching comensurate with the magnitude of El Niño.

Totally getting missed with the rain and storms tonight.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0 - 1908 90 0 Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ HARRISON COOP 95 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 94 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 93 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 91 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 91 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 90

April in perpetuity would be hell lol

It should.....the main argument against a better expression of El Ninoi is the CC enhanced MC regime destructively interfering, but I don't think anyone would argue that the S Hem isn't experiencing CC, as well.

it could be worse .... it could be April 71/56 at sunset

a tornado went over a mountaintop at Kaysville, Utah today

Did you see this?

48” pretty much here in bed stuy Brooklyn

Chuck is in negative Nancy mode. His usual state. He swings like a pendulum lately though.

Yeah nice opposite correlation the last 3 years lol. Meanwhile the CANSIPS can't even get days 1-5 right.

When I die and go to purgatory I expect the weather will be just like this forever

Convection has not been persistent enough. For developing systems, you do not want irregular blobs pulsing. There has been no curved banding evident yet for the system. 1016 mb c.p. shows a high environmental pressure field w/ synoptic gradient weak from the high centers to its NE and W 99L is in a very narrow margin area. Look at the WV loop attached, Strong shear evident t toe S, more starting to press in from the NW, and deformation zones N-W-S. 18z SHIPS output environment is not good. Shear is high and 700-500 RH quite low.. https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al992026/stext/26091818AL9926_ships.txt Intensity models usually for nascent systems are bullish in taking them to min TS quickly, but about half of them currently do not even do that. A testament to this Atlantic season I suppose when nothing can go "right!" TD status appears mdt-high, but TS is more of challenge.

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

^Much higher correlation in the Southern Hemisphere Winter, wonder if it means Northern Hemisphere Winter will respond more

You sure? You better ask @EastCoast NPZ lol.

Just brutal