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Front/trough continue advancing south EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed
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Got to 91. I imagine years ago, in the 60s and 70s, things would have been hotter if not for the thick smog and less days with actual clean, clear blue skies.
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Yes. The thing is its not like there have been no storms at all in srn Quebec and NNE so far, so the convective temps has been reached. And those storms that did develop laid down boundaries to provide focus for other storms. I am just surprised the storms that developed have not been supercells b/c the enviroment is primed. Any updraft should rotate quickly, and then mesocyclone feedback makes the updraft stronger, and you get a solid supercell. Look at the SCP and SIGTOR values currently! And the K-index. There is a focused band of 850/700 moisture and obvious boundary near the border. Maybe nocturnal effects such as the strengthening LLJ and BL decoupling need to come into play here. The models clearly showing the 925 and 850 winds ramping up this evening. This happens a lot in the Plains/Midwest and you still get nasty tstms. Tor potential is typically limited though as MCS clusters/lines are more common.
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I was out on the Allegany / Garrett county border today, the smoke was definitely noticeable between the ridges.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
csnavywx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
'97 loses some steam from here over the next month and as you point out, there's another large KW on the way, so would expect these two events to swap positions with respect to max anomaly temps. -
My uncle survived a widowmaker heart attack. Happened about 15yrs ago now. He was astute enough to realize something was going on and my aunt called the paramedics. While on trip to the hospital in the ambulance was when it occurred.
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Looks like Thursday morning will be rough according to the HRRR. Interestingly it keeps west of the blue ridge/shenandoah shielded from the near surface smoke.
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Amazing what a difference a week makes. Last week at this time we were all wrapping up 36-48 straight hours of rain with 2-3” for many and S coast double that. Then we go 7 straight days of hot, dry sunny weather and any gains we had for lawns, shrubs, gardens are gone . Everything burning and browning out all over again with little significant rain in sight . What Stein wants. Stein gets.
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If the smoke gets as thick as it looks it may (rivaling 2023), that’ll definitely knock a few/several degrees off the temps. New England highs today were mostly under the forecast.
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Now the Senate and Trump If passes , it will be later sunrises and later sunsets during the winter. Poor weather models during winter.
