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Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there.

Do you realize a single Euro control run extended to day 46 is the equivalent of extending one run of the GFS deterministic out 46 days? And what you posted is a 30 day mean of the Control for that period. How useful do you think that is? Here is the latest run a day later-

Maybe just a wobbly, considering how strong it is, like top would?

taking a SW dip? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

I grew up in East Northport so I can tell you that the combination of the slightly higher elevations on the north shore and a very light breeze off the sound during the overnight hours messed up many a frost opportunity with this type of synoptic setup. It’s why places in the center of the island and out by Westhampton are usually the cold spots.

Pretty dire NHC discussion...

I hope it undergoes a prolonged ERC soon, which will weaken Melissa.

Another bust here with the precip here. We just can't catch a break. We are in a serious drought now.

You can tell how fake the cold is, when someone sneezes the temperature jumps up several degrees. I was in the upper 40s but a 4 mph wind was recorded and it resulted in temps jumping into the lower 50s.

931.7 extrap

Latest recon pass found 128 kts flight level in the right quad, so that has been pretty steady.

second pass 931.7

Also the various cruise ports, which Jamaica relies a ton on for tourism.

You might want to sit this one out. I by no means support any type of homophobic behavior but this is an absolutely disgusting post. This is an extremely dangerous storm and there is a good chance people will die. .

Are they finding any higher winds along with these big pressure drops?

I really like the positioning of the west coast ridge and Alaskan trough as we head into November. That's a decent sign for winter.

The wind field seems to be expanding a bit per recon

That is true. As far as intensity and surge impacts but the more west it goes the more rural areas the core of hurricane will impact. However the surge and extreme rainfall impacts will still be impactful well east into more populated areas.

lol what are these Stiller uniforms?? lol sooooo bad

Your observation is probably(at least partly) because we have had quite a cool early Fall that has continued through October, instead of the usual second summer that can be warm right into mid October. Color definitely seems ahead of schedule here. Nearing peak. The upper Midwest has also been generally above normal, so without significant elevation differences it probably evens out. Just my take.

Jesus things aren’t looking too good for Jamaica. Its a compact hurricane but its going to be an absolute buzz saw in the areas that are exposed to the eyewall.

I just realized that I joined AmericanWx on December 3rd, 2010 so on Dec 3rd I will have been in AmericanwWx for 15 years!! That's longer than both my marriages ! Lmaoo

Next 2 weeks definitely a cool down in the east..

A spectacular Fall day. A high of 54 and current temp of 44.