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Definitely cool out there and breezy.

Orioles shut out Astros 2 out of 3 games... I never saw that coming! Lol

This is way more intense than Georges was, especially after Georges interacted with land throughout the Caribbean. In fact, if I recall, Georges sort of underperformed in the Gulf of Mexico.

30c water temps working their magic. We see it in the gulf and west pac. Here we go with the Atlantic version.

How did Georges 1998 compare

Good grief Erin is primed to explode.

Yeah, I'm starting to feel like I may eat my words that Erin would never be able to regain Category 5 intensity. It may still not, depending on how much it needs to bomb a pressure drop to contract that RMW enough to get there again. But deep convection is really circumventing the eyewall at present, and at this rate, all the old cloud debris in the eye should dissipate at some point this morning. If we get a warm symmetrical eye during the daylight hours today, it may well exceed my expectations. We're going to have some interesting recon flights today.

The appearance has improved dramatically as the deep convection is now fully wrapped.

Isolated shower on the north shore just dropped a half inch of rain here in 10 minutes. Reminiscent of a year ago but that lasted 3 hours.

Does Roy get to sing for the end of summer too?

^Followup to text: Here’s the 0Z UKMET 84 hour map at closest approach to NC, only 135 miles while at 943 mb: sorry about the blur but a screenshot was only way I could save this (not yet out on WxBell):

0Z UKMET: furthest NW and strongest run yet while SE of NC at closest point (942 mb!). It is then a mere 135 miles SE of Hatteras as of 8AM Thu!HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 68.9WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 18.08.2025 0 22.0N 68.9W 938 1011200UTC 18.08.2025 12 23.0N 70.7W 949 960000UTC 19.08.2025 24 23.9N 72.0W 968 691200UTC 19.08.2025 36 25.3N 72.8W 969 710000UTC 20.08.2025 48 27.2N 73.8W 964 601200UTC 20.08.2025 60 29.2N 74.3W 957 810000UTC 21.08.2025 72 31.6N 74.8W 949 911200UTC 21.08.2025 84 33.6N 73.8W 942 820000UTC 22.08.2025 96 35.4N 71.9W 943 691200UTC 22.08.2025 108 36.1N 69.7W 942 700000UTC 23.08.2025 120 36.9N 67.7W 947 631200UTC 23.08.2025 132 37.9N 66.1W 951 660000UTC 24.08.2025 144 39.3N 64.3W 955 581200UTC 24.08.2025 156 40.9N 62.4W 956 550000UTC 25.08.2025 168 42.8N 58.8W 964 52

lol yeah same here, fires all over Ennis now. You're welcome

I wonder if it's getting ready to drop down below 940 based on the new flight-level winds, as mentioned.

No doubt this is going to be a massive Category 4 hurricane in the next two days, likely similar in looks and size to Hurricane Floyd 1999.

NHC upgraded Erin back to Category 4, 115 KTs/130 MPH for the 11PM AST package, though that may have been just a tad generous. Recon just sampled 119 KT at flight level in the NE quadrant and 948 mb minimum pressure. However, Erin does appear to be getting its act together tonight and near a period of intensification soon regardless. Of note, they report that the eye is closed at 30NM diameter. Erin is a large hurricane now and has a window to contract its RMW. So, the forecast for a higher end Category 4 isn't unreasonable through early Tuesday prior to stronger shear values encroaching on the circulation.

I just want to take a second to illustrate what I mean. The signal is robust on both sets of ensembles, though it is stronger on the GEFS. Now looking beyond ensembles, I think development is likely for a few reasons, even if delayed. First, the preceding wave and Erin have helped reduce SAL significantly. While there is still plenty out there which may inhibit development, I don't know if dry air/SAL alone will kill the wave, especially with another CCKW likely assisting in future. There are pockets of shear that could cause trouble, but the ensembles don't show an overwhelmingly prohibitive signal as this gets closer to the Antilles. Currently, the wave is in a narrow corridor of lower deep layer shear. I'm not sure it's all systems go, but I think the operational models aren't quite picking up on TC genesis potential quite yet.

.19 . take it I guess

That’s what he said

Quick little storm.... Definitely had a bit of wind ... 0.26 0.28 monthly total now...

Does Levi from Tropical Tidbits even care about Youtube anymore?

Didn't realize the nhc was using Google products This track lies roughly in between the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

00z models run and again the nhc track is to far east jeez.

I crushed you with my .03

Ocracoke Island now has mandatory evacs effective immediately. (If this should be in OBS please move. Not an active discussion other than here)