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@The 4 Seasons picked up 1.1" here today as this winds down giving me 4.5" for the season. 33/31 currently with just some light flurries lingering.

Are you ok?

A heavy sleet band just plowed through I mean just smoked us! Only problem was it only lasted for about a minute or so. It was cool while it lasted. Tried to coat the walkway and grass. The temp fell from 40 to 38 during the time. That was unexpected, at least by me!

Yes it is and AIFS is good too, while the volatile GFS remains all over the place. I like these more local maps, but keep in mind that this map still includes an inch or two N of 84 for many today, but it's just the Sunday event for anywhere near and SE of 95.

I’d call it something else consider us northern crew have had Lucy screw us over more then enough.

warmer but qpf nearly identical

So 18z euro is drier, warmer, about the same, or best yet?

Yeah most of SNE is prob advisory that run outside of far NW areas maybe….then you maybe get into low end warning in SE areas. Way too early to worry about amounts though. We can’t even get guidance to agree on if a system will even hit us.

With such a narrow "win" zone it is going to be tough to please everyone. I'll hug the 18z euro because it is the best run for NW zones so far. Not going to jack out this way, just trying to get in on the action and have if look like winter.

Yea its noise, IMO.

18z GFS....good run.

Let’s bring that bad boy south some. Lol love fantasy range snow. Let’s get a pool going for how many times Christmas Eve/day changes over the next couple weeks.

Well earlier today, we were told that this had to be 300 miles SW. 50-100 miles isn’t a huge lift at 90 plus hrs out imo. If one little aspect isn’t being modeled correctly now(disturbances just coming into range, or will be overnight), 50-100 miles is very manageable.

I’d sign for that. 38f here

44 degrees in Maryville and we just had some ice pellets bigger than peas.

Does it look to bring an advisory event to SNE at least?

I was expecting disaster, it’s not that much different… boo!! Lol

The trend is nice…Euro catching on? Or is GFS right?

I think if you drop that another 50-100 miles west/southwest then you’re starting to give this enough room to tilt shortwave negative. That’s where you’d get this from a general 3-6/4-8 type event into double digits where a true CCB circulation can start rapidly developing. But at this point, I’m still leery of the whiff east. I don’t like how progressive the flow starts looking behind it so that’s always a worry. But if we can get guidance to trend solidly at 00z, then I’d start thinking a bigger solution isn’t merely a fantasy.

How cold has this year's first 10 days of December been in Chester County PA? Glad you asked - This is the 10th coldest start to December since records began way back in 1893. Of note 5 of the top 11 cold starts to December have all occurred since 2000.

The big thing about that euro run is that it did not throw the TPV piece way east like the GFS did. Not much of a change.

I would call it a winter if this happened.

How cold has this year's first 10 days of December been in Chester County PA? Glad you asked - This is the 10th coldest start to December since records began way back in 1893. Of note 5 of the top 11 cold starts to December have all occurred since 2000.

Decent burst of snow this evening. Already a good inch here and still snowing. Roads are not good.