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54 / 51 clouds. Cool / wet stretch the next 72 hours. Rain later and heavy rain Thursday with coastal as trough cuts off and ULL slowly moves through and northeast this weekend. 1.5 to 3.00 inches of rain in the heaviest spots northeast. Saturday to slowly clear out but with upper level low still over to the north some isolated showers and and stingy clouds could get in the way espeically eastern areas. Sun and Mon to look to clear out and get back to normal. Trough still into the northeast through much of next week with next chance for showers and rain 5/28 - 5/30. Warmth and heat on the move north and east out of the west and a much warmer start to next month and the chance for tracking some heat. May see the trough back west and ridge setup along the EC / WC. On to the clouds

Picked up 0.04" so far on my way to another, perhaps, two inch event which would easily take me over 10 inches of rain for the month.

Sews her own clothes and is fun at picnics.

Pretty close to a record low High Temp today in some spots I believe. NYC is 54.

This will be the storm everybody watered this winter.

Most guidance had the most widespread rain this morning. Certainly looks like an underperformer.

Interesting that the Euro and Aussie have a warm neutral.....hasn't the EURO been running hot for ENSO?

Unfortunately.

"The weight doesn't bother me, she has a pretty face and a beautiful heart"

Rise and shine, Allison

I would still prefer a more meager El Nino....I am far enough north where I still want a good deal of N steam involvement, or it ends up occluded after a mid atl snowmaggedon.

You have to wonder how much the EPAC needs to warm in order to offset the warming in the WPAC. While 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record across the CONUS, at least we had that great record breaking STJ in February with the El Niño. That was a nice snowstorm in a narrow zone between NYC and Philly. Unfortunately, it didn’t extend very far from this region since it was more of a mesoscale IVT feature. My attitude is that I would much rather roll the dice with a strong El Niño and STJ influence no matter how warm to just get the storm track further south. Heck, even in March 1998 we had a better snowstorm than we have seen in recent years even though it was also a very mild winter. This persistent Niña background since 2018-2019 has shifted the storm track too far north for many of us. Monthly Data for March 1998 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 9.0 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 8.5 NY WEST POINT COOP 8.0 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 6.5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 6.1 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 6.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 4.8 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 4.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 4.7 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 4.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 4.5 NY WEST NYACK COOP 4.5 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 4.2 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 4.0 CT DANBURY COOP 4.0

had just started to sprinkle when i walked out of gym at 545

I think given (potentially) ENSO neutral this coming season, you have weight things towards modest cool ENSO.

We need to cool off the west Pac....or at least relative to the east Pac...the ratio right now (warmer west/cool east) predisposes us to a cool ENSO paradigm...that is why we have been having problems on the east coast due to se ridges and strong jets obliterating PNA ridges. That is cool ENSO like. I think we actually agree on alot, but just emphasize different aspects and drivers.

Nothing is about to eat us…LOL. Most people off these forums like milder and less snowy winters. This is why most people are moving to the sunbelt instead of to the cooler and snowier spots like Marquette and Caribou. I point out the changes in the Pacific Jet for the very reason that I enjoy colder and snowier weather. So in order to understand how we could potentially change up this pattern is key for winter weather fans. We have to change the Pacific side and Southeast Ridge trends in order to bring back some great winter weather here. I grew up in the 70s and had to wait at the bus stop during those little ice age throwback winters. Also fond memories of the Great 1980s into early 1990s Arctic outbreaks. So I am more a fan of cooler climates than ones that have become much warmer. I have been trying to think how we could change up the Pacific in order to bring back more of a STJ influence. Would probably involve a very potent El Niño that would be very warm. But I am fine with winter warmth provided there are great snowstorms like in 15-16, 16-17, 17-18, and 20-21.

At least the sun is popping out here this morning.

Man, @bluewave that link is an absolute pants tent.....you always casually pull these elite data sources out of your rear...too bad you never use your power for good, instead of in support of trying to convince us all that the Pacfic Jet is about to eat us.

67th thankyouverymuchforyourintetestinthismatterpleasesendmoney

0.12 meh

As you Post from an air conditioned room all summer….

Dunno, for everyone in NNE it looks very showery and cloudy until Monday.

Yesterdays highs on Long Island Islip 67 Farmingdale 66 LaGaurdia 68 Kennedy 76

Ineedsnow will be trying to book a cabin up at Savoy SP.

Meanwhile 2-3” of rain and gusts 40-50 here and hrrr says congrats Mitch.