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Humans can't play the long game. We aren't hardwired for it. We'll always be reactive and not proactive. That's why CC is the perfect end for us. It's slow, subtle, and not overly alarming(at first). We won't know we are in serious trouble until it's too late to do anything about it. We probably have already crossed that inflection point. We just scratchin the surface of our good times. Thank god we have social media to distract us as we decline. Phew..

I like this Larry, we have one for ENSO so we should also have one for AMO.

Out of Service Until Further Notice.

Benign weather persists across the region. With another dry day in the offing, Akron will have seen just 0.29" of rain over the past 47 days (August 1 to September 16). August was the driest month on record at Akron with just 0.19" of rainfall. Note - not just the driest August, but driest of any month. Through today, only another 0.10" of rain has been measured in the month of September. This is the driest 47 day stretch on record. The prior record was 0.34" ending on November 17, 1924, but persisting for an additional 4 days [reaching a total of 51 days with just 0.34"]. In addition, a 47-day period ending on July 9, 1988, measured just 0.37" of rain. While a 47-day period ending on October 29, 1963, measured just 0.43" with that tally holding for an additional day. The next chance for rain occurs on Sunday, suggesting the current tally should hold through at least 51 days.

Getting a little light rain here, 67°F.

Maybe we need a RAMO (relative AMO) in addition to classic AMO sort of like we now have RONI in addition to the classic ONI.

Will................. This is sending a signal for the winter.

Model forecasts change which is nothing new. I was just pointing out to Liberty who enjoys the summer heat that the models were showing 85°-90° potential near JFK. Now they have a faster frontal passage so the forecast is for low 80s. Not sure why you find it funny since I notice all the smiley faces. Back in August I was saying that the 90° potential probably wasn’t over for the warm spots in NJ which turned out to be correct this month. Maybe you should try posting some of your own ideas instead of being more concerned about trying to play gotcha games.

Anyone know when LWX radar will be back up?

That's why it's deleted but the 90 for Friday posts remain

I posted yesterday that the heaviest rain would stay to our south due to the record blocking to our north which is still the case today. I didn’t mention any specific amounts since the models haven’t been very good recently in that regard beyond a few days out The big picture hasn’t changed much over most of the last year for precipitation. We have been drier than average with the heaviest amounts either completely missing our area or narrowly focusing in a small area like we have seen since May. The next few days look like more of the same. Some of the wetter models have the .50 line getting closer to NYC which would be nice. But not enough to end the drier pattern even if the wetter models closer to .50 verify. In my area along the CT Shoreline we had one of the warmest and driest summers. Vegetation has locally been on the brown side to the lack of rainfall.

A homebrewed BOC or Caribbean system that affects the Gulf region would have different outcomes based on where in the Gulf it goes. The northern Gulf SST's are a few degrees cooler than the southern gulf. Big SST difference between NE Gulf and SW Gulf. Any home brewed system that goes into the northern Gulf would have some environmental challenges to clear to make MH status. Southern gulf (S Texas or SW Florida) would need to keep their guard up because conditions are ripe in these areas.

Anyway, don't get me wrong....I'm not trying to go JB here and start hypng to hell.....but I feel as though seasonal forecasting has really become polarized, and lacks nuance. On the one hand, we have the lust for clicks on social media driving the hype train, and on the other hand we have this group of enthusiasts and pros that have adopted this insipid style of forecating whereas one should forecast warmth first, and think later, if at all. They are both equally as ill advised IMHO, though obviously the latter will verify better over the long run simply due to CC, rather than any actual skill. And I am not grouping people like Chris into that, either.....there are those who forecast warmth that present a great deal of data in support of said outcome and forth in a great deal of effort. However, there are some who have become "lazy", or unimaginative, so to speak. Not directed at anyone specifically...more of a general observation.

It’s a really impressive radar presentation. Look at that banding on the northern and western sides.

That might be starting to turn around now, Chuck.

Thanks RClab, and thanks for the nice birthday present too!!

It’s a very impressive radar presentation. It’s faux tropical but it’s legit.

Thanks Don, I'm glad the sunshine hung around for my birthday!!

Staten Island and parts of Long Island could get up to an inch of rain.

Don why isn't it being called a noreaster? Is a coastal low the more PC term now?

The amount of 45 kt gusts from cape lookout to the mid Atlantic has been impressive with the system. Very large area of strong northerly winds. Can imagine a substantial push of water on some of the sounds and rivers that catch that fetch

Thanks Chris, do the models also have warmth on Thursday now, so now it's low 80s on both Thursday and Friday rather than upper 80s on Friday?

Did 2014-2015 also have that?

Maybe in the era of climate change we need to redefine the AMO. The cycle is past due to switch and maybe there are other things that should define it besides SST? Especially with climate change, it's likely those waters will always be that warm (unless the ice at the poles melts even more quickly and that should cool down the SST.)

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1991) NYC: 93 (1915) LGA: 95 (1991) JFK: 89 (1991) Lows: EWR: 42 (1984) NYC: 47 (1966) LGA: 48 (1984) JFK: 48 (1959) Historical: 1875: A hurricane stuck Indianola, TX killing 176 people. 75% of the town was swept away from the disastrous storm surge. The highest wind registered was 88 mph before the anemometer blew away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1881 - Iowa's earliest measurable snow of record fell over western sections of the state. Four to six inches was reported between Stuart and Avoca. (The Weather Channel) 1888: An estimated F2 tornado struck Washington, DC. The tornado first touched down on the south side of the city then moved up Maryland Avenue. The National Museum and Botanical Gardens were damaged before the tornado lifted off the ground. 1928 - Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake. (David Ludlum) 1915: Boston, Massachusetts has the warmest minimum temperature of 76 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1928: The Okeechobee Hurricane, also known as the San Felipe Segundo Hurricane was one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin. This Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida as a Category 4 storm during the evening hours of the 16th. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of Lake Okeechobee, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet. This storm killed over 4,000 people, including 2,500 in Florida. 1933: The second major hurricane of the very busy season struck the North Carolina coast near New Bern with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a central pressure of 957 millibars or 28.26 inches of mercury. 76 mph winds were reported at Cape Hatteras, NC. 21 people died and significant damage was reported in Virginia and Maryland. Damage was set at $1 million dollars. The Category 3 storm followed on the heels of the damaging Chesapeake – Potomac Hurricane, which struck the coast in late August (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1961 - Hurricane Esther was seeded by Navy planes in the inaugural experiment of what was to formally become Project STORMFURY next year. Esther was the first hurricane to be initially detected by satellite. On Sept. 10th, TIROS III imaged an area of disturbed weather a hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1964: Concord, NH recorded a morning low of 27°, making this the shortest growing season on record at just 100 days.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1965: Rawlins, WY recorded their greatest daily precipitation on record as 2.06 inches of precipitation fell, including 14.5 inches of snow.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967: Hurricane Doria formed off Florida and moved northeast into the Atlantic. However, it reversed course and moved west to the lower Delmarva coast as a hurricane, then turned southwest, making landfall north of Cape Hatteras, NC as a tropical storm. This is a historic hurricane for two reasons. It was the 1st time on record that a tropical system made landfall north of Cape Hatteras, moving from the northeast. Also on this date, a noteworthy first occurred in satellite photography when Doria, Hurricane Chloe, southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada and Hurricane Beulah, about to move into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, were all photographed on the same orbital pass by ESSA 2. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: A record breaking early fall snow storm caused extensive damage to trees and utility lines. The heavy wet snow occurred with little wind but caused record breaking cold temperatures for so early in the season. Snowfall totaled 15.6 inches at Stapleton International Airport with most of the snowfall 12.0 inches occurring on the 17th. This was the heaviest first snow of the season. The maximum snow depth on the ground was 13 inches. Record low temperatures were set on three consecutive days: 31 degrees on the 17th 23 degrees on the 18th and 20 degrees on the 19th which was also a new all-time record minimum for the month at that time. Record low maximum temperatures were set on 4 consecutive days: 48 degrees on the 16th 35 degrees on the 17th 40 degrees on the 18th and 42 degrees on the 19th. Tony Hake Providing Local Weather for Thornton, Colorado (http://www.thorntonweather.com) Early Denver CO Snow 1984 - The remains of Tropical Storm Edourd began to produce torrential rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Port Isabel reported more than 21 inches. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Overnight rains soaked Arkansas, with 5.25 inches reported at Bismarck. In the town of Malvern, up to four feet of water was reported over several downtown streets, with water entering some homes and businesses. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Lufkin with 4.30 inches of rain in just three hours. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Missouri. A small tornado near Kirksville lifted a barn thirty feet into the air and then demolished it. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert moved ashore into Mexico. The hurricane established an all-time record for the western hemisphere with a barometric reading of 26.13 inches. Winds approached 200 mph, with higher gusts. Gilbert devastated Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. (The Weather Channel) Hurricane Gilbert made landfall 120 miles south of Brownsville TX during the early evening. Winds gusted to 61 mph at Brownsville, and reached 82 mph at Padre Island. Six foot tides eroded three to four feet off beaches along the Lower Texas Coast, leaving the waterline seventy-five feet farther inland. Rainfall totals ranged up to 8.71 inches at Lamar TX. Gilbert caused three million dollars damage along the Lower Texas Coast, but less than a million dollars damage along the Middle Texas Coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms, respresenting what remained of Hurricane Octave, brought locally heavy rains to California, impeding the drying process for raisins and other crops. Sacramento CA was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in six hours. At Phoenix AZ, the afternoon high of 107 degrees marked a record seventy-six days with afternoon highs 105 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: Two weeks after Hurricane Fran lashed eastern North Carolina with torrential flooding rains and 115 mph winds, at least three damaging tornadoes spun through the same communities from severe thunderstorms. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: The remnants of Hurricane Floyd caused major flooding to North Carolina. More than 10 inches of rain fell in a swath from North Carolina to New Jersey. Many streams in the targeted areas reached 100-year and, in some instances, 500-year predicted levels. It ranks among eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, the central and northern Delmarva Peninsula, and New Jersey's most destructive flood disasters. Floyd's Track - Weather Underground (Ref. More Information About Floyd) 2000: The record high of 95° at Denver, Co set three records: 1.) New record high for the date. 2.) The warmest reading for this late in the year. 3.) It marked the 60th day during the year the temperature reached 90° or above, tying the record set back in 1994. Miles City, MT hit 100°, their latest 100 degree reading on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004 - Hurricane Ivan turned northward over cooler waters, and made landfall in southern Alabama as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan had a very unusual track almost making a huge circle.