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  2. Mount Joy Snowman
    Low of 65. Looks like any real action down this way may not occur until after sundown. Then comes the relief, setting up a beautiful couple of days.
  3. TSSN+
    Could be a decent storm day. Looks like could put a damper on the White House ufc event lol
  4. BlizzardNole
    Already four 95-degree days and one 100. We're gonna post ugly number this summer, like 15 or more 95, five 100 and one 105. The 90-plus number will be hideous.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a Delmarva special today
  6. snowman19
    @csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”
  7. SUNYGRAD
    Maybe some interest with this tool from the NC Climate Office. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/station-reviewer/ Used Mt Mitchell State Park as an example. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/station-reviewer/?station=MITC&period=YTD
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.
  9. KChuck
    I wouldn't say busted completely. I was driving up to Mt Airy to attend the Blue Ridge Baptist Camp Meeting where a friend was preaching. The clouds were looking ominous and all heck let loose just past where 52 breaks off to go into the town. I'm 73 and I have never ever had to pull off the highway because I couldn't see...until then. Five feet was the furthest that I could see in front of me. I was expecting to run into a car or get hit from behind. I found a side road to exit off onto to wait out the storm. When I got back onto the highway there was debris scattered everywhere, with up to 4 inch branches down. I'm a storm spotter and I'd definitely classify that as a severe storm.
  10. dailylurker
    Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.
  11. Today
  12. marsman
    Goose eggs here from those storms yesterday. Watering my garden & lawn, so it will pour tonight. Overnight low of 72.
  13. bluewave
    The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997. Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America. Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/
  14. NorthHillsWx
    6z GFS keeps the northern half of NC under 1/2” QPF through end of June. Euro would’ve been the same if it didn’t develop and slide an inland hurricane through, lmao
  15. bluewave
    Looks like the warmth backs off starting Monday with temperatures closer to seasonable for the next 5 to 10 days. Could still sneak in a few 90° days along the way. But most days probably staying in the 80s after this current heatwave ends.
  16. CentralNC
    Yeah, I know. Super jealous.
  17. Modfan2
    Same here, just torched. Hoping for some rain out of tonight’s front passing
  18. Yardstickgozinya
    If you dont believe me, then maybe you'll believe the american meteorological society. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/4/2010waf2222363_1.xml
  19. moneypitmike
    We've been fine with rain up at Pit2. I'm really hoping to get some here on the south coast though........the "lawn" at the new Pit is a disaster. The scourge of the neighborhood. lol
  20. pawatch
    57 degrees this morning. Lets see what the day brings.
  21. CoastalWx
    Congrats Cape Cod.
  22. CoastalWx
    Probably flash flood potential in NNe too along with the SVR that Vortex noted.
  23. Yardstickgozinya
    Thursday is looking particularly interesting and it's truly worth keeping an eye on. Keyword elevated mixed layer. That's the main dynamic that keeps us safe out here east of the mighty mississipp and why we almost never see the big outbreaks the central and western united states sees. If it truly surges out ahead, this absolutely could be one for the record books. Contrary to popular belief It's not the mountains, the ocean breeze or lack of unmodified gulf air, thst prevents Central and Western type outbreaks from occurring this far east . EML lag is the true culprit. if we have the EML we're capable of achieving Central and Western United States type indices ,including those gargantuan fat capes in excess of 4000jkg that the MA/NE only see every thirty to forty years.
  24. Yardstickgozinya
    It's not unusual for me to step away for work and play, tis the season. When it comes to any kind of digital media less is better, so good for you. The concrete reality is, that there's a million different better and healthier ways you can spend time than being online. It's bad for the body and mind.I don't think thst there was any coincidence to the fact that I spent three weeks laid up with bodily injury early this spring. after leading the post count by a large margin, just a few weeks prior. The older I get, the more I notice a correlation between sedentary behavior and emotional and physical discomfort. That said, you're an integral part of this forum and an OG and it wouldn't be the same without you.
  25. vortex95
    Will this convince WxWiz that an EML is not required for SIGTOR? Scott still be like "MEH!" I have a hard time believing that something solid will not occur w/ those dynamics in place in mid-June in the region.
  26. Nomz
    Stormnet ringing bells for us Thursday. For those unaware, Stormnet is a new AI tool for SVWX forecasting that came out this year and has performed exceptionally well. Green is about equivalent to an SPC slight or enhanced, so this is quite a strong signal for d5. I know some may hesitate due to relatively modest forecast EMLs, but globals tend to underestimate thermos, and with the forecast shear (60-70+ EBWD and 300+ 3k SRH), I wouldn't want to count anything out. We await the king NAM.
  27. Nomz
    Since I'm back home in Boston, I've mostly been following our weather, but I wanted to stop by here. Obviously, insanely potent jet for this time of year, with 100+ kt on Wednesday over the Midwest and nearly 100kt as it takes on a negative tilt on Thursday over NE, both per 00z euro. The GooFuS solution favors you all with the trough swinging down a little bit more and overspreading the region with 40-50kt flow, which is good for this time of year. It should be noted that with these super-fast (speed and translation) punching jets, you don't need to be right in the centroid to see good storms. Deep-layer shear should be pretty good due to the strength of the jet, although it remains to be seen whether the LLJ and associated SRH will reach down to MA. Attached is a model sounding at BWI at 18z from the 00z GFS. 41 EBWD supportive of supercells, but, as you can see, it's mostly speed shear with no real turning with height due to a very modest 850mb jet. CAPE is skinny on this sounding in particular, but I wouldn't worry, as many others were 1000-1500+, and globals tend to underestimate thermos anyways. We will have to wait for the SVWX king, the NAM, to bring us the goods.
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