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The lightning in these overnight cells gets intense, and if you happen to find yourself under one, look out. I had a tree struck around 2AM here. Virtually no wind. Just periods of frequent CGs.
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Bouts of very heavy rain in CNJ
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Intense rain and lightning
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I've always noticed that warm front storms have the most lightning.
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Visiting Stone Mountain State Park NW of Winston-Salem. Not to hot but quite humid. Late morning thunder booming as we hit the summit was neat.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Below is the first time I have used AI (Claude) to help analyze the Chester County Data set with data from 1893 to Present. Below is the average number of 90+ days by station and month. Including the years of record and the overall annual average. It did this correctly! see below. -
Subway and street flooding videos already coming in from the first round. https://www.instagram.com/p/Da8Q8RokS4r/?img_index=1&igsh=d250NzN4YjdiMzhu
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Up to 1.00” already
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Absolutely pouring with intense lightning in Union County NJ
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Gotta love warm front storms , sometimes they produce the best.
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1.3” on the day so far.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1648.html Mesoscale Discussion 1648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Pennsylvania...eastern West Virginia...northern Virginia...much of Maryland...Delaware...southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181650Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through early-mid afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary concern as storms evolve into eastward-moving clusters and line segments. A watch is likely prior to 18z. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is likely prior to 18z. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39077931 40007859 40547698 40477526 40267451 39987411 39137439 38627538 38437699 38487839 38647934 39077931 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
DDweatherman replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Growing concerned looking at the parameters and sun is beating down nicely at the moment. Lots of little boundaries as well that could enhance some supercells.. assuming development continues upstream.- 1,067 replies
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Coming down in buckets. This is wonderful.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop. -
Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
Modfan2 replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
7/10 split with the first round in CT? -
Sounds like leaning towards Tornado Watch
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Torn warning headed into Bedford -
Tornado warning in Southern PA. Legit supercell. That’s what’s coming here. We just need the last of the crappy convection in NE PA to clear.
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Flood advisory for Suffolk now.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Storm Clouds replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Putting my new Tempest on a good practice run so far today…it has recorded lightning 375 times, but only .01 of rain. Most of the significant rain went well north and slammed Harrisburg area it looks like. I was on the very edge down here. We’ll see what happens later. -
These storms don't have much wind but WOW, so many very close lightning strikes. Haven't had lightning like this in a long time.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
.2” or so of rain this morning. Just took out the trash and didn’t smell smoke but you can still see it. -
This is reminding me of last July 14 - the route 22 corridor got slammed with heavy rain and this storm is heading right up 22
