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Don’t worry we’ll have yellows and reds with spring storms very soon.

12z Euro precip improved for the LSV at 12z vs. 6z.

Jesus you see that low in the plains and almost think ptype issues, but nope….stein. Blows.

The 12z HREF: Deducting one category would still produce a 1"-2" snowfall for the New York City area and its nearby suburbs and a coating to an inch across most of Westchester and Rockland Counties. That is largely in line with the overall model guidance. I suspect that there will be an area with 2"-4" snowfalls in central New Jersey. The 12z NAM appears to be a high outlier overall.

Quick question for you but are the models getting the high peaks of our mountains correct and if so why aren’t they snowing? Hypothetically they should be 6-8 degrees cooler than surrounding valleys and snow but they don’t seem to show that

We’re all succumbing to Tip’s Hadley Cell.

It really isn’t. It’s just math. The math equation states there are three factors which influence earths surface temperature. 1. Solar forcing (sunspots vary it by .001% so sure .001% of our warming is natural best case) 2. Albedo 3. Atmospheric absorption. Now, only molecules which undergo a vibrational transformation when impacted with solar radiation of a certain wavelength are greenhouse gasses (hence why nitrogen or oxygen in their own don’t increase heat). Can you guess those molecules? CO2, methane, cfcs, h20, etc. now what molecules do we pump into the atmosphere? It’s not political.

I’m probably getting more snow today that I will from this thing Good luck to the south coast

'meh-vent' is a great term that I wish I came up with.

Wait next year, we'll have some of those yellows and reds, even those purples

stick with the Mesoscale models 36 - 48 hours out GFS and Euro jumps 50 - 75 miles one way or the other drive us nuts

we never have dark green over us...like ever

I think 1 to 3 is a good call for our area, but obviously still some uncertainty. I want to see the HRRR jump aboard by the 0z run tonight.

Clouds FTW today. Even some flurries

It is.

Looks severe towards the end of the month.Looks more like a East Asia winter monsoonal trough,Upper Level LOW into Russia/Mongolia and THE PIG like Flash calls it(Rex Block)in the Aleutians/Bearing Sea Euro and GFS both show this right now,surprisingly right now

GOD! Everyone on this thread is Ready for Spring on February 14th!?!? After 3 Horrifying winters in a Row? And now EVEN TIP IS DONE!? What the HELL has happened in here!! (Lesser Clothed Ladies was funny) And TorchTiger SUCKS. Truly, What are you doing on a Snow Weenie Board with That mentality!?

So 11" in an hr from combined upslope and convective TSW++? Probably giant dendrites! Good info. Knowing the limits of any wx event, type, or specific phenomena is paramount for historical discussion and getting people excited!

Few more ticks towards the gfs and Nam. Hmm. 0z will be crucial

Euro is a general 1-2" for most, maybe an isolated 3" in Jersey. That's what my forecast would be right now. Most accumulations on grassy surfaces, slushy inch or so on paved surfaces when rates are heavy enough.

Tenor of the season.

12z Euro coming in slightly better for snow & precip in the LSV over its previous run. Maps coming soon.

February 14 1923: A 'Black Dust Blizzard' ends after two days. Dirt blown into the state from North Dakota created drifts. For Saturday, February 14, 2026 1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum) 1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. Chuckling at the "wreaking havoc" part, but I get it.

Feb 9th was the last of 27 consecutive days where Detroit saw a low temp of 17° or colder. This was the 4th longest stretch on record (behind only 1918, 1948, 1936).