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I said weather in the east.

So you can post verbatim model conditions if they suggest a furnace but not if the same model suggests conditions otherwise?

-Unlike Cansips, these NMME maps look typical/more believable for a strong Nino. -The strong Nino very typical wetness (starting as early as Oct on this run but I usually bank on the start in Nov) gives a lot of hope that the bad but somewhat improved drought in the SE will be mainly history by mid to late winter. - These maps are consistent with the El Niño winters that had one major to possibly historic SE US snowstorm like has occurred in many El Niños.

so post about it in your local subforum

Conditions on the earth a couple thousand+ miles from mby are meaningless to me except how they effect weather imby.

Yeah but this shiny looking map says I’m going to have near normal temps 6 months from now in december in a record breaking super nino

Should be an interesting week of weather around here starting with cool and dry and the second half Hot Steamy with Severe Storms...

What's causing this annoying cloud band slicing PA in half today (Monday)?

strongest nino in history and we're still on the backyard snow talk

Looks like Canada got their wildfires out of the way for this year?

Front Range north of COS is in a Slight Risk for this afternoon, mostly for hail with 1" hail east of I-25. Time to drag the pots under the patio roof...

Fortunately, the forecasters had it dead wrong. It's incredible outside today! My temp was 68 at 8:00am, and now at 11:30am, it's only 69 with a refreshing breeze. I had a top wind gust of 61mph on Saturday. Tons of trees down and road closures between Maytown and Mount Joy.

the storms locally on Saturday afternoon were the most destructive of the season, so far, (at least around the northern burbs of CMH). Out driving around for work today and lots of downed trees. A house on our street with moderate damage to the roof from a large tree going down. Once again, it always seems like our best severe comes when there's virtually no hype beforehand.

No surprise in the EPAC. Super El Niño/++PMM at work. Explosive setup for a huge TC season….

Its all good. You may see some of the trees down along 416 on the left as you come up the hill from 207 depending on how quickly that clean up happens. You'll be within raiding range of my beer fridge when you tee off at 16. I'll let the maintenance guys know that you'll be around and if they see you walking through the maintenance yard towards my house to stop you at all costs! That said, It would be cool to set something up one day after you golf there for a couple cold ones on the deck.

What is this shit?

Thursday could be a big day

There will certainly be rainstorms as any winter, but considering the light tan is only +.5C and the next level up is only +1C, there would certainly be plenty of snow threats in there imho with such small AN progs. Plus, the individual month maps for January and February look even better.

I imagine most of that will be rain, but there’s always the chance for a big snow storm just like in 15-16, 82-83, etc

Hows stony ford gc looking? Playing there wed.

Another impressively clear day for New England. Looks like I might have to finally install Wednesday afternoon to prep for the Thurs - Sunday heat/humidity. It's been a good run since October.

Are we back? Looking like a more active week ahead for a lot of us Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 430 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002- 010-011-019-090930- Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage- La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford- Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will- Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton- 430 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 /530 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Elevated Thunderstorm Risk. Elevated Flooding Risk. DISCUSSION... Several periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today. The strongest will produce torrential rainfall rates, which may lead to localized flash flooding. In addition, a funnel cloud cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Tuesday night through Thursday... Limited to Elevated Flooding Risk at times. Limited to Elevated Severe Thunderstorm Risk at times. DISCUSSION... Several periods of severe thunderstorms may occur in the general region Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally, the greatest threat for severe weather will be on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Moving toward the north at around 20 mph.

Feels like coastal Maine outside.

You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb. Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

More traditional June El Niño 500 mb pattern forecast for next week as this record El Niño continues to intensify.