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In the past several days, we've been hearing this is more likely to shift south than north due to the strength of the modeled high pressure. But something I've had in the back of my mind is: what if the high pressure itself was being overdone? Seeing how this is, in fact, trending north, I'd be wary about using a modeled weather system as evidence for how another future weather system will behave.

Yeah and again...as long as it doesn't go any MORE amped than this, we can still get something really good despite the sleet. And I think we'll know by this time tomorrow. If we can't get at least 8" out of this that's just plain ol' bad luck and just wasn't meant to be.

Money panels for us

If this one doesn't trend back, and we get a rainy cutter, I'm going to retire from model watching, at least for this winter. It's insane how everything is perfect for a week and then everything goes haywire.

They will be highly scrutinized

Hell'uva phase. No longer a sliding over-runner.

Possibly, I certainly think further down in VA may mix with this. I’ve not really sweated us missing out on the phasing scenario, because of the pattern setup as I alluded to yesterday. 500mb ridge axis is west along the Pac Coast (classic for C-PA is Boise, ID ridge axis), height’s build in the SE US ahead of this system. Still relatively progressive though even with the phase, so I think that and the very anomalous cold air mass in place are what make this potential event go. A more typical cold airmass in place probably would have us under the gun for yet another messy winter storm that we’ve had too many of the last several years. Models have been more consistently showing some surface low reflection west of the Apps as well, which given the depth of the cold air mass and strong high pressure in place should be a good thing for us in terms of enhancing the snowfall across all of PA. Most of our classic big ones (96, 03, etc) have that signature. Comparison wise it’s tough, no storm is ever the same. Some shades of 2003, but that one didn’t have the prolific ice/snow zone the whole way back to Texas that this one’s forecast to have. The Baja low component of this reminds me of 2010, but this is a way colder setup and probably a weaker low that will keep moving. Antecedent cold air mass comparable to 1996 or even colder, but that was a much more amplified 500mb setup in the classic positioning. I personally don’t think the top end accum potential is going to get near any of those 3 in the Mid-Atlantic/PA but we’re not in NAM range yet haha. The overall impact and the sheer area of the US that is going to get significant snow/ice out of this though, is going to be biggest story with this.

Same story just a different storm. Everyone bites the bait on the long term models just to get let down as it becomes mid to short range.

Ok doing quick math 18+ area wide?

Just wild to think we mix with a 1040+ banana HP over the lakes lol

Move

Very pd2-ish, at least up my way in se pa

Yeah pretty sure it’s gonna show 12-15

It is on board. Another push for a biggie

Euro telling ukie to hold it's beer lmao

This is one hell of a trend north

Meh, looks like at most a few tenths more than some of the other models. It’s not like it’s 2 plus inches. Trading a mix for a couple tenths of precip and lower ratio seems like a poor trade, but I am sure more adjustments are to come.

I’ll take a QPF bomb even if that comes with a changeover to sleet.

Haha I was wondering who would be up checking out the Euro. Ukie Dropped 20 inches again for central PA.

Euro another nudge north early on… I miss these days of play by play as the models roll in.

Yeah Euros coming north, should be solid like the UKMET

We may end up with the best of both worlds: more snow overrunning with the boundary setting up further north and with the low moving further north heavier QPF from the low. As an added bonus, a more amped solution lessens the threat of an ice storm in the Deep South.

Seriously. I live in Greenville SC and haven’t seen a flake in over FOUR YEARS.

Will there be any YouTube weather channels left after this?

It would be huge for us. Almost 1.4 qpf. by 18z. No mixing issues here til after that.