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Okay 13z NBM... I see you

and Pivotal is still stuck at 66

whats the surface temp? if i may ask

yep as the dry slot approaches could flip to lighter sleet or even ZR

I actually think most of the damage is done by this point.

i know im posting it on my weather page i think its going to end up being a good forecast! will post snowmap later

Junior staying up later than you again to track the rain/ snow line near S Wey

A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C

I grew up in NW Jersey. All the big storms for the most part seemed to end with a period of sleet and ice. God's way of locking in the snow for a while.

To save words, can always go with a depiction...

WRAL calling for only 13% chance of snow in Raleigh. Saying it's an ice storm on their models.

Ray bitched his exhaust to me

Seems Euro stays all snow from the PA/WV line northward.

Still 4 days out

Imagine that

Pretty strong trend in the last 24 hours actually. Remember when 24 hours ago the GFS had no snow, was too far south? I think we still have some time to move this thing around a little. It's hard to believe the low pressure will cut much further with strong High pressure to the north though. This LP north is actually creating some stronger wind gradient in the snow zone.

Good question. I mean, it's across all vendors so I don't think it's a specific company. I still don't fully understand the whole dissemination process tho

Any mixing issues would probably be more towards the end of the storm...I don't think mixing would be an issue during the bulk

Worth noting that for reasons that are unclear to me, the NBM does not ingest all of the 0z Euro/EPS QPF until the 19z run (with the 12z hitting at 7z). Overall I have mixed feelings on the 12z runs. Trends to lift the PV out a bit quicker and for the northern stream diving into the Rockies to be more amped continued, but there was also a subtle trend to eject the Baja cutoff slower and/or not as cleanly, which would hurt the potential for an earlier/more aggressive phase.

I like the 2 mile area of sleet between the snow and the freezing rain.

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches

As soon as Doc mentioned that the Chicago folks can leave the Euro stopped

That is a VERY fast switch over to sleet/ice for east of 95. Not much time to thump before that. This is going to be depressing to watch the NW posters get slammed while I wind up with 4 inches and a boatload of sleet

Apparently the Euro is broken.