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Lol, this year’s party is just getting started. It’s very early, so anything we get before mid December is gravy.

18F was the low this morning, Cold here in the woods, 22F

Frosty & foggy 33 in Marysville this morning.

AIFS ensemble don’t look as enthused as euro suite.

One of these days it will come to a reality.

The 0z Euro shows it.

@Blizzard of 93 What is the status of our black Friday bomb? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

20.7 Exact same as yesterday

He was back out last night, I’m here now, Quiet.

Irredescent cloud in West Babylon this morning

First morning with ice on the small pond low of 28°

Nice temperature inversion we have this morning. I remember winter storms in the past where I'd be 30-31 near sea level with freezing drizzle and rain and ski roundtop at the base would be 34-35 and at top it would be low 40s Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Min 21.7° 19° down in town along the river.

Euro backed off from any SSW upcoming with not much of any wind reversal to what its been showing.JMA has the temps around -65C which is around what the Euro shows last update,Euro only shows the temps will get close to -60C in 10 days,so right now no SSW just some weakening,least not right now

Probably still related to Cloudflare

Not sure if it matters but those were 500mb temps, not surface temps. That said, November 1950 saw an incredible shift in temps. At Detroit, November 1st saw the all-time November high temp of 81°, to this day the only time 80 has been seen in November...then 7° on November 24th.

Ditto in Lancaster .

I looked quickly and saw it pushing the PV down towards Hudson Bay, so there will be cold lurking. GEFS do that too.

I just saw it... however just like every other model, it's a totally different solution than the one prior, and likely the next. It does show that something could happen in the time frame, but who knows what at this point

What are you wasting in mid November? This is the stepping down process..it’s been right on target this fall.

WB 6Z AI ensemble....lock in our 1-50 chance for a post Thanksgiving blizzard.

Let’s elaborate some.

28 currently. Feels like November.

Gotta watch this. If you pop a poleward Scandinavian ridge here that suggests further damage to the PV sometime in December.

This trend is more in line what with my thought process. I anticipate a more rapid recovery of the PV than some guidance has implied due largely to how I feel the stratosphere will evolve mid season (mid January reflection event).