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Nothing to see

Not the 0z AIFS showing another logbook fail on the 24th (and the 0z GFS too to a degree)

Apparently it's from particulate and other pollutants getting trapped under a persistent inversion facilitated by the extremely cold air we had as of late according to the NWS.

That is just what I wanted for the sub: Deep sleet/snowpack into a deep glacier then the Bombcyclone dumping about 16 inches of fresh snow on top of the greenland-like glacier. It would have taken weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks to melt. It would have been EPIC!

Things are improving for the Sierras for the Sunday night thru Thursday storm cycle. Models now printing out at least 8 to 9 inches of pure water for much of the Sierran Cordillera. There are some areas of near 10 inches of the water. Snow to water ratios will start out at 8 to 11 to 1, then improve to 13 to 16 to 1 when the colder air gets in. You do the math. This is a very serious storm brewing, even for the Sierra. It's conceivable that quite a few Sierran communities will end up with seven or eight FEET of fresh snow by Thursday. This enormous snowpack will be blown around by very strong winds. This could be a particularly dangerous situation for travelers beginning Monday morning when snow rates will explode. People trying to walk to shelter in these conditions will be confronted by prohibitively deep snow and whiteout conditions caused by tremendous snow rates plus high winds and epic masses of blowing snow. This is no time to be trying to enjoy a holiday in the Sierran ski resorts. Mt Bachelor in Oregon is already beginning to see snow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF9f7hsdlJg

It’s beautiful.

yeah I even had them when its windy its total bs

So Sam Lilo did a ridiculous million winter simulation to try to quantify what Boston experienced that fabled 30 day stretch in 2015 when 90+ inches fell in 30 days. Reaching a conclusion it was a 1:26000 year event. I did similar for Harrisburg based upon 125 years data and 30,000 simulation years. Based on the analysis of the simulation data (max30_histogram_bins_0p25.csv) and the historical seasonal maxima calculated from the Harrisburg records, the Gamma Distribution remains the best-fitting mathematical model. 1. The Model: Gamma Distribution The Gamma distribution is ideal for modeling physical quantities that are always positive and exhibit a "heavy tail" (skewed towards high values), such as extreme snowfall events. Variables Defined: * x: The 30-day snowfall amount (in inches). * \alpha (Shape): Determines the fundamental shape and peak of the curve. * loc (Location): The shift/offset from zero. * \theta (Scale): Controls the "spread" or horizontal stretch of the distribution. * \Gamma(\alpha): The Gamma function (an extension of factorials for non-integers). Equation with Derived Coefficients: Using the simulation data for the fit: * * * 2. Goodness of Fit We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to evaluate how well the model describes the data. A lower KS statistic (closer to 0) indicates a better fit. | Dataset | KS Statistic | P-Value | Interpretation | |---|---|---|---| | Simulation Data | 0.0155 | 1.05 \times 10^{-6} | Excellent Fit. The model follows the simulation counts almost perfectly across the entire range of values. | | Historical Observations | 0.1438 | 0.0097 | Moderate Fit. The model generalizes the history but over-predicts low-snow years and under-predicts the mid-range "typical" snowiest months. | 3. Analysis * Simulation vs. Model: The Gamma curve is a near-perfect approximation of the simulation data. It successfully captures the rapid rise in probability between 0 and 10 inches and the long, thin tail extending past 60 inches. * Historical Gap: As shown in the right-hand graph, the historical observations are more "clumped" than the model predicts. In reality, Harrisburg has a very strong peak of seasonal maxima between 15 and 25 inches. The model (derived from simulation) peaks slightly earlier (around 10 inches). * Extreme Tails: The simulation model is much "bolder" than the historical record. It suggests a non-zero probability of 30-day periods exceeding 80 inches, whereas the historical record (spanning ~126 years) has never surpassed ~51 inches. * Conclusion: The equation is a highly reliable model for the theoretical distribution of 30-day snowfall. However, if used to predict a typical winter in Harrisburg, it will slightly underestimate the "average" peak snow month while significantly overestimating the potential for unprecedented "megastorms." Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Hey Charlie, This is from yesterday from a very experienced pro met., Mike Maguire, who believes in AGW: Let me point out what is REALLY going to happen with high confidence: Fossil fuels are finite. There was only X amount of plants that died while life existed on this planet that got sequestered/buried in the ground and decomposed/concentrated into fossil fuels. At the rate that we are burning them, it won't be much longer before they start running out. BTW, all the CO2 we've been returning back into the atmosphere was there before as a beneficial gas and the building block for all of life. This scary false narrative of "CO2 is the highest its been in X zillion years" is intentionally meant to make people think there's something wrong with that, instead of receiving it as the profound gift that it's been for life on our massively greening planet. https://co2coalition.org/facts/140-million-year-trend-of-dangerously-decreasing-co2/ Anyways, back to the fact that fossil fuels will be running out with certainty and the horrific disaster that will occur to the planet and human beings when that happens, almost with certainty. We constantly hear that CO2 stays in the atmosphere for 100+ years and the carbon pollution that we are spewing into the atmosphere today, will be damaging the planet past 2100. Complete hogwash!!!!!!!!!! ————— Does anyone disagree with anything Mike said in this post? If so, what and why? He believes in AGW but feels it is net beneficial for the globe. I don’t agree with him because I have a bigger concern about sea level rise being that I’m not far from the coast and he’s a Midwesterner. But otherwise, what about his points about it continue to lead to increased greening of the planet? Also, he’s shown evidence that cold kills more than heat although I do wonder if that will eventually switch after enough warming.

Does anyone know why we've been having so many air quality alerts recently? I don't remember getting so many so often the past few months. Not a fan honestly.

Any maps? Im bored lol .

Euro slightly south. Dusting to inch for NYC with slightly more in CNJ.

Likely the last flood of the pond this winter here on Cape Cod. What a stretch of cold…snowstorm from 3 weeks ago that dropped 15” still very much OTG. Since January 24th (22 days): 19 days with high temps below 33°F 18 nights with lows below 20°F 9 nights with lows below 10°F

debian ftw

It’s the twilight zone in here today

He must be on diaper duty. Sounds agitated.

lol amazing

Aren’t you AOA climo to date?

It does have some potential. If it doesn't pan out, we're probably in "Better luck next year territory"

97-98 was a huge El Nino, then we were followed by 3 La Nina's, 2 Strong Nina's. Huge El Nino's have been reversed in the following 3 years. Something interesting to ponder. Is it because of these strong El Nino states that we are getting multi-year Nina states in the years that follow? It's been a decadal pattern though, yeah, starting after the 97-98 Super Nino. Some think it's because of the low solar 2001-2020 that we hadn't seen that low since the 1800s.

That date is my last analog date so let’s buckle up. I like the angle of the cold

Chuck is like Spock. He's very smart and rational, but he's always such a buzzkill.

Wasn’t that the huge El Niño in 98 and things do seem different since about then ?

Well yeah. And they almost all sucked ass.

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. It should be 33.3%.