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Pretty incredible stretch of temperatures coming up for Mid-April. We have had warmer, and similar length stretches of warmer temps. But having 70s and humid for at least 5 days straight is impressive, as usually it's dry when we get warm for that long this time of year, ala 2023. Going to be stacking up the rain totals as well, especially if areas have multiple rounds of T-storms. Could be a significant flooding issue in the UP and basins coming off of that area and the North Shore where there is still a significant snowpack. GRB has noted the possibility of the Menominee River reaching moderate or major flood stage later in the week. That plus the multiple severe days is going to make it a very busy week for the region.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. Afterward, much warmer weather will develop on Monday. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -27.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.933 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

My yard

65. Perfect. Super dry though. Maybe some rain with a front in 10 days looks like the next chance on current guidance.

A few showers have developed in the foothills

These winds are beyond aggravating.

Ditty should move to New Jersey. Of course the fire is near refinery. Isn't everything near a refinery in New Jersey? https://www.nj.com/gloucester-county/2026/04/extremely-large-brush-fire-reported-in-nj-amid-elevated-wildfire-risk.html

pretty much perfect - it doesn't get better than this in our region.

Yeah, we’re overdue for an epic drought guy meltdown.

It’s significantly warmer then yesterday on the south shore with the offshore wind .

62 here

Big fan of droughts...plus drought guy may flip out. 63F/Gusty/DP 33F

It’s weird that Sally wasn’t retired, having caused over $7 billion in damages.

Very nice day today. Though having 5 days in the 80's next week with 2 of them flirting with 90 is gonna be miserable if it's really humid too. I didn't look at the dew points for next week

We’ve had steady snow cover at 1500ft since mid-November. Snow depth reached 45” max a couple times, and spent over 3 months above 24”. This morning it was down to 3” and I expect it will be gone by Monday. Still 53” at 3,000ft and 61” at 3,700ft.

Yet another very windy day on LI waiting patiently for the 70’s temperatures

62. The winds makes it feel colder

Great weekend weather to get em up in and in! Wednesday: Some sun, warm and a bit humid. Straight summer-like! Highs 80-85 inland. Cooler Beaches. Scattered late-day thundershower.

Last coolish day before several warm and humid days coming in. Low temps will hold in the 60s for several nights. Awaiting a dying Iowa blob of anvil rains this afternoon.

The exact stations are immaterial. Very easy to spot the large station moves using the Chester County stations. The proof is in the pudding. By accounting for the big moves, NOAA matches the raw Chesco data, particularly the overall warming in the past 130 years.

Today from JB: any comments? Is he making sense saying that in the cold season it’s harder to get record cold further N?? That doesn’t sound right. What am I missing? Aren’t SDs/variances larger at higher latitudes? See what I bolded below. OTOH, due to GW, if he had said it’s harder to get record cold than record heat, I’d agree. So, in that regard, much of AK/Canada having its coldest March on record in this 2-3F warmer world certainly is quite remarkable. From JB: Comment on the March Hype Wave “Yes it was a heat wave and for the US in March it was unprecedented in times of reliable records But countering it was Canada and especially Alaska which was brutally cold This winter (2025-26) was the coldest on record in Fairbanks, surpassing the previous record set in 1965-66. Now think about this as far as the greater deviation The colder it gets, the harder it is to get colder in the cold season. If you have an extremely cold place, and Fairbanks is a longstanding site. So this is remarkable. The deviation from normal both high and low in NAMER was about the same. But at lower temperatures its easier to get it that much warmer than it is at colder temps. So the cold in Canada was more impressive than the warmth in the US as far as competing against the averages, if one is considering the fact that in cold areas in their cold season, its harder to get it that cold over a 30 day period” However, later he says this, which I agree with since variances in summer are not as large as March: “Now lets look at the March map again off the PSL site. you have got areas 12 above normal in the time of the year when its much easier to get that warm, then when you are at the hottest time of the year, pulling this off like 1934,1936 is much harder to do.” ——————— PHX was 6.5 warmer than any other Mar on record whereas Fairbanks was only 2.4 colder than any other Mar on record. But, 2.4 colder in a warmer world might be about as impressive. Opinions?

Beautiful day

if i was a bear i would hibernate this upcoming week.

@bluewave Holy ++PMM