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Both thr 12z Euro-AI and GFS-AI try to dump a decent shot of polar air on the CONUS during Thanksgiving weekend.

Early Dec looks bad for the coast, no +PNA in sight so things will cut. Remains to see what mid-late will bring.

A link to all the "credible" model RMM forecasts are at this link fwiw: https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

My friend in PI said they got 8".

12z Euro was nice. Temps are around 32-35 so rain/snow mix.

Check again Euro pops a small coastal on the 30th and brings some light snow to NYC lol

end of 12z Euro looked kinda cool, temps at DCA and BWI were like 32-35 so rain/snow mix

That will change again. And that’s for T Giving day. The week after is when we start paying attention.

It looks like it might have been a bust to my NW, but we produced in SLK. When I woke up yesterday morning and we already had an inch on the ground with temps falling, I knew it'd be a good one. Of course, had to leave before the storm wrapped up lol. Already over a foot so far this season. Still some light snow there at 25.2 degrees.

Probably real unlikely that this winter will be as bad as 22-23, that was one of the worst in the last 30 years in the NYC metro area, 22-23 ranked right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12 and 19-20. The clue to look for when there’s a La Niña is what December does….if December ends up with below normal snowfall, especially if November has no snowfall, followed by a below normal December, that’s a very, very bad sign. Usually the kiss of death for the remainder of winter in the NYC metro area

perhaps this is an over-polarization, especially for central park, but for Baltimore and points south I can tell you we treat every snow event like gravy.

39/20 in full sun ... it's a winter atmosphere today at least. If there were a snow pack in situ and upstream, we'd probably be stuck closer to freezing.

Unrelenting wind . Just roaring

Forecasted low of 50, actual low of 37. They missed that one by a mile.

We ended up with incredible fall colors but they were all gone by the time the snow hit last Monday. They had about a week of vivid peak.

There has not been sufficient length of time. Many indexes are offered and even created but are dubious. We do know the negative NAO and AO remain big. Enso is not as strong a determinant as it was 15+ years ago. Pacific Ocean warmth cannot flood the nation and up into Canada. DC needs MillerAs and not phase job/transfer crap. We can get decent overrunning but the secondary rarely does anything for us . Mongolian high pressure sets us up well.

Looks like Jay’s claiming 34” at the summit for the cycle that ended last Friday (Based off them reporting 21” over the last 48 hours). Coverage up there was great on Saturday, but I would subtract 10-12” from that for sure. It’s not like it was 3 feet of blower that condensed down, the snowpack was dense and surfy with little room for compaction. Love Jay but these reports seem to get increasingly ridiculous. 55” in a drift up against the Tram House perhaps?

Ended up becoming sunny af here. I don’t know how anyone could tolerate living in NY state especially the northwestern sections. I know it’s got nature and snow, but I would say at least 70-80% of the time I look at satellite imagery, the majority of the state is cloudy. I think the Pac NW might even have more sunny days.

More than half of my leaves blew away lol. Much easier cleaning them up this year!

Not the start i would sign on too on the EPS.

I mean this seems pretty reasonable. Was at stony brook for the last four years and we got literally one decent snowstorm during that whole period. I certainly related to this sentiment coming from upstate New York.

6-10" in the eastern part of the county.

12z gfs/euro ai are torched to start December

If you ask me we've already sufficiently met the criteria or an early winter in the east so some relative warmth over the next two or three weeks feels like an appropriate 'balance'. Here's a comparison of seasonal snowfall vs last year at this time. Only the coastal and mid-atlantic areas that have missed out so far.

I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.