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The models have been forecasting that low become more consolidated this month beyond 240 hrs. But once we get to under 240 hrs, the low is showing up more split. With one piece back toward the Bering Sea and another into the SW CONUS. My guess is that the splitting is a function of the stronger mid-latitude ridges leading to the warm pool from Japan to east of Hawaii. The effect of this ridge is to keep the PDO negative instead of strongly positive. The stronger eastward extension into the SW CONUS is probably a result of how east based the forcing is. So the significance of the warmth making it down to Atlanta is the ridge split leading to more of Southeast ridge than usual with the more -PDO pattern. The combination so far has been to enhance the El Nino warming through a stronger ridge across the CONUS. This is why October and the pattern since May has been so much warmer than usual for a super El Nino. New run for November 1st Old run

Euro op verbatim did that again at 00z FWIW. Interesting. On the very off chance, should one occur. Would be the earliest on record if I'm not mistaken.

There’s something happening here, what it is , it’s exactly clear .

Down to 28F so far this am, decent cooling; gonna be chilly firing up the smoker.

Everywhere I go, I keep hearing about the SSW and Polar Vortex. Looks like mid November is going to be chilly!

Models had been suggesting another possible frost/freeze around Oct 28-29, but that is gone. They've all gone to more of a sw flow. It's looking more active after the next week. We could use a little rain.

This season has been absolutely bonkers. All the major hurricanes is just unreal counting each one. 4 more names and we run out. I'm thinking we won't exhaust the list but it could get close.

Only thing I'll say on this whole topic since I only just now saw all these CC posts but half your posts are always about how 'erm actually the science is wrong' in most of your posts lol Also you say you'll take everything over to the Climate Change thread and then right after that just continue to respond in a passive aggressive manner about it and telling people how they're wrong and you're right. It's just always been bizarre to me that just because Chester County hasn't really warmed all that much that that means the rest of the world hasn't either. It's classic not IMBY. If it's not happening to me it's not happening to anyone else. I don't live that far from you I fucking wish it hasn't gotten as hot as it has here over the decades. But it is always fascinating to watch people jump through endless hoops in their head about how something that's real isn't actually real. I used to be a staunch climate change denier when I was a teenager but then I grew up and educated myself as well as just casually comparing how life was locally when I was a kid in the 90's/2000's compared to how it is now in the 2020's. Just my local observations were what convinced me eventually. I wish it was like how it was 30 years ago but it's not anymore. Anyway not speaking about this topic anymore but I feel like I'm a bit more vested in chiming in about it since I've been on both sides of the argument in my life where as most people have only picked one and stuck with it. I'd say I don't lean to one extreme or the other like some. I try and keep my views on the whole subject level headed and free of fearmongering and sensationalism. But when you see people on both sides argue this subject you really start to realize just how little either side understands it as a whole despite them claiming they do. Okay too much rambling that's enough of this dumb shit lol

We got real lucky last winter. There were some insane torches just to our west, especially around Christmas.

Yeah probably needs to be widespread

Isnt 32 a freeze? I thought they stopped issuing warnings after the 1st freeze. But if only a few locations in a county got to 32, they probably still issue them until the majority of the county gets to 32. 36 here at 1150

Currently 47 in Kearny, nj. Should be a chilly one at 6am.

I’d take your climo in a heartbeat. First one to hit 50° in a cutter too. Highly jealous.

Are you any good? What did you shoot? I’m only asking because playing a round would be fun, but I’m terrible.