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As the globe warms, the threshold for the SST becoming much more favorable for convection warms: “We show that this threshold (SSTG) has undergone a significant warming trend at a rate of ∼0.2°C per decade. The SSTG shows a remarkable correspondence with the tropical mean SST and upper-tropospheric temperature on interannual and longer timescales.” “The development of tropical ocean showers and thunderstorms requires a warm ocean surface as an energy source fueling the storm.” ”Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

Overnight guidance was too far south with this rain batch.

Forecast was good here. Got a solid rainfall overnight (0.78") and now we are in and out of sprinkles like several of the models showed.

Min 48.8° MEX has 29° for CON next Wed morning…33° at LCI. Hopefully we avoid a freeze a little longer. BML/HIE 22°…should be the first real hard freeze there.

NWS forecast for yesterday was partly sunny, no mention of rain. Our school fall fest got rained out half way through and I had to clean up and put stuff away in a downpour. It looks like it was off and on rain all night and now my kids softball games are cancelled. I don't remember much modeling showing that much rain prior to the overnight hours. Getting tired of the weekend rain....

How much is this complicated by the fact that some of the feedbacks reinforcing El Niño depend on absolute SST ? Convection becomes much more favorable once SSTs reach roughly 27–28C, and when that convection shifts eastward it can weaken the trade winds and reinforce El Niño.

It was awful to say the least!

48 this morning.

Speaking of the Nam, I just saw in the NE forum the NWS has extended its life until 11/3.

With all my weather links, this showed up in my YouTube feed.

Wasn’t it supposed to be sunny today? It’s raining here

Just awful. Defense and offense.

I think the NAM did the best with the track of the nor’easter. I believe it was the first to hook it back to the coast.

Close to peak in central Maine. Makes for a pretty commute.

You said in your earlier post that I responded to: “It was a+2.1 event up until a few years ago before the CPC dropped it to +1.8. So until very recently it was rated as a lower end super.” 1. The CPC officially now has 72-3 at +2.0, not +1.8, as I showed, because ONI hasn’t been official since Feb. 2. You said, “With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is.” No, it’s not RONI making the event seem weaker. It’s ONI making the current Nino seem stronger than it really is due to GW. That’s the reason the RONI exists. ONI isn’t per NOAA and BoM the absolute strength of the 26 Nino, itself, because that exaggerates the strength due to adding the increasing warming from GW to the warming from El Niño, itself. The warming from El Niño, itself, is what RONI measures. I’ll use a hypothetical example to illustrate better: -Say that the avg worldwide tropical ocean 30 year SSTa is at +1.0 vs its prior 30 year avg. Now say that 3.4 is also at +1.0 vs its own 30 yr avg. Per ONI it’s a +1.0 Nino. But per RONI it’s at 0.0/neutral because it’s measuring the contrast of the 3.4 anom vs the anomaly of the tropical waters. NOAA and BoM at the least have determined that +1.0 is deceptively high in this example because 3.4 is up to +1.0 due to GW, not because of El Niño. Measuring the true strength of ENSO means measuring the contrast with surrounding tropical waters. If 3.4 and avg tropical waters are both at +1.0c there’s essentially no contrast (no relatively warm tongue in 3.4) and thus no Nino. A contrast is needed to have a Nino (or a Niña) per the official RONI. With no contrast like in this example it is neutral. @mitchnick

https://bsky.app/profile/bmcnoldy.bsky.social/post/3mwss7mmx2k26

I agree. But most modeling was going in a different direction and some were questioning whether this Niño was coupling.

It all waxes and wanes. Nothing new in the earth's history will come of it. But I can see how using RONI could "upset" some who think (or make a living from) the end of the world is coming.

December 24th

Not really that crazy, october is typically cold in the east during Nino.

The planet doesn’t care about squabbles based on how humans define things. It just responds to the actual temperatures. So the headline story for the planet right now is that we are exceeding past super El Niño events by a wide margin and it’s still only early October. All-time SST records are increasing from Nino 3.4 to 1.2.

So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.

I would lock in. The energy futures market for natural gas, heating oil, electricity is pretty nuts out to next year. Every 3rd party electricity supplier in New England is like $15-20 more a month right now for rates. Eversources standard supplier rates are currently much cheaper until the price adjustment hits in Dec. Its pretty much guaranteed there will be huge increases coming this winter as usually 3rd party electricity suppliers are much cheaper.