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2 times now is been in the teens so far this December. 16 Friday morning and about 17 this morning. Surrounded by water with no wind, that's very very impressive for it only being beginning of December here on the island at the end..

That's a girthy shaft for DC..

Wait till we lay another 10" the next five days and then it torches till Christmas

River ice gone. Geese taking a swim. Hopefully more fun with ice to come this winter.

Don't forget to divide by 6

If we lose more than 2-3 inches, it will be very frustrating after such a good start to the season. There's so little margin of error here for maintaining appreciable snow cover...even 12-18 hours of milder temps can do a lot of damage. The new wrinkle this season has been melting from below due to warm soil temps. Heaven forbid you try to build a snowpack early in the season...

Thanks for the comments. I do think we will get our turn down here in January or early February.

1. Where’s “Star” located? 2. No index ever even comes close to guaranteeing anything. That’s nothing new to us. 3, However: The period Dec 3-17, which is prior to the days his maps are showing, is currently looking to end up much colder than normal in the majority of the E US, including a top 3-5 coldest of the last 50 years in many places. That would jibe well with phase 8’s cold E US tendency.

What a cutoff on the euro for the metro area. It seems most often than not, it cuts right through detroit.

12z GEFS may look very good, but it's heavily skewed by one storm in P8 that drops about 30-40 inches of snow (3-4" QPF, imagine kuchera lol) in the metros lol

As of the 7th I had the RONI at -0.97.

Per Roundy the warm pool near the MC continues to move east. One would think, especially if this continues, the default forcing may shift east as well.

Lock it in.

Yep, and just 3 runs ago was an epic winter storm.

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper.

And the cold is even Westivus for Festivus

Expecting some wind driven sprinkles here, followed by a few passing snow showers late tonight. Biggest story here will be 40+mph winds later tonight/tomorrow.

Euro has shifted north from earlier runs for the Friday and Saturday systems. 12z vs 6z bottom 2 maps below

thank you!

The one with the house is so good.

Lol, I thought that was a deep terminator reference I wasn’t aware of

We're 2" on Pivotal fwiw. Charlottesville still gets more than that. And you know they will actual get it while ours is iffy. Lol

Both years still showing up and idea I shared earlier in this thread if a 30-45 day pronounced cold run is still in play and underway. By the end of Dec (29-31) we will be at 30 days and will see if it extends further Don’t worry about model confusions, Christmas 20-27 will not be a torch

Yeah I posted that earlier. Was waiting to see if someone got my Robocop reference lol. Euro op was good for the cranberry bogs. At least it didn’t vanish.