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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck, I think I do recall some blocking during 2023-2024 now.....I remember Chris going on about how the se ridge was adjoining the NAO blocks that season, which is what killed us....likely a byproduct of the cool ENSO residue that persisted that season (RONI lagging ONI).
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just harkens back to my point about the monthly tabular readings not providing an accurate portray all of the time.....you need to view the dailies because there were significant -WPO intervals this season, which is why it was so cold with more snow.
  4. GaWx
    Dec daily WPO: every day was negative and yet that table has +0.08. So, that table is looking at something else. The monthly table url has “wp” in it. Is “wp” the same as “WPO”? 2025 12 01 -163.44 2025 12 02 -139.59 2025 12 03 -103.12 2025 12 04 -115.00 2025 12 05 -37.98 2025 12 06 -31.37 2025 12 07 -48.33 2025 12 08 -84.47 2025 12 09 -106.99 2025 12 10 -130.04 2025 12 11 -192.25 2025 12 12 -316.04 2025 12 13 -347.69 2025 12 14 -304.25 2025 12 15 -259.07 2025 12 16 -205.71 2025 12 17 -191.49 2025 12 18 -190.96 2025 12 19 -200.61 2025 12 20 -183.89 2025 12 21 -135.08 2025 12 22 -127.59 2025 12 23 -138.14 2025 12 24 -130.99 2025 12 25 -113.55 2025 12 26 -107.01 2025 12 27 -95.19 2025 12 28 -71.08 2025 12 29 -82.61 2025 12 30 -127.57 2025 12 31 -123.82 https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  5. GaWx
    Well, I’ll put it this way. That table of monthlies isn’t even close to what the avg of the dailies comes out to. Dec was -WPO every day. Also, Jan and Feb averaged -WPO. I crunched the numbers. link to daily WPO: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually I can see it after going over the maps.. the slight + reading was correct because of further SW
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but I simply didn't recall them...probably because they were useless.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I felt like it did, too, so the monthly numbers are incorrect?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It doesn't make sense to me, either...but those are the numbers.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    No way December was +WPO
  11. GaWx
    According to the average of the daily WPOs at the link below, it certainly did average a -WPO this winter: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. They don't always mean cold - actually the composite mean of top 20 warm 10mb Winters (Nov-March) is above average temps in the Northeast, US. Biggest pattern is shorter term lagged -NAO with peaks, which can occur +months early in the cold season to +weeks mid/later in the cold season.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data
  14. GaWx
    Ray, Please provide your link to the monthly WPO. Something seems off. TIA
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 had an early late November/early December reversal??
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ahhh...okay, thanks. This makes more sense, then. Chris is probably right.
  17. boo radley
    F the Celtics impressive win
  18. so_whats_happening
    I think 23-24 didn't pan out in the way we had hoped even given similar SSW styles to this past year was the SPV was just that much stronger that year so it needed quite a bit more to really knock it down. Again unfortunate but it is what it is sometimes.
  19. so_whats_happening
    We tend to box things in a lot with these oscillations which is unfortunate but understand why it is done.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting....the other two early reversals were 1981 and 1968...the latter featured strong blocking throughout the season and the former had a blocky January.
  21. dendrite
    AEMATT trying to take the rest of us down with them
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewave I was stunned to see that this past season actually averaged +WPO (.44 DJFM)...I would have bet my life that it was -WPO, but only March was. December, January and February were marginally +WPO, but essentially neutral. Now I feel better about my previous work connecting +WPO to the more active jet, as this makes more sense. We had more variability this season, which is why it wasn't strongly positive like previous years in recent memory...this allowed for the cold, but the +WPO in the mean continued to correlate to a more active jet, which is likely why we only saw one major coastal. The big January event was a huge SWFE.
  23. so_whats_happening
    I think what has been more intriguing to me has been the SSW formations and the results. The last two have been massive wave 1 approaches to an SSW event. While this last year can be considered an SSW it was not due to a major heat flux like we traditionally would see from these events. It was in tandem with the 500mb pattern of a slow build up of atmospheric ridging that eventually coupled, not a lot of warming was involved with this one. Sort of a bottom up approach from the typical quicker top down events. We actually had something fairly similar happen this year to what occurred in 2009 where the early SSW was disturbing the SPV and thus keeping it weaker overall at the start of the season but in 2009/10 we had a large heat flux later on in the year. That second more prominent SSW event with heat flux completely obliterated the SPV for the season leading to what we saw that year of an overly extended winter and we just so happened to have the precip aspect work in our favor. Maybe this large bubbling of Wave 1 activity giving us these SSW's is newer in the climate of a warming world but would like to see how things progress in the near future. I don't think wave 2 events are done for but it has been pretty difficult to get one to actually occur. There tends to be a lag from early season SSW events I'm not sure about the 2-3 month number but there is a lag into effects downstream from those. vtn_50_2025_merra2.pdf vtn_50_2009_merra2.pdf
  24. Maestrobjwa
    This team don't let you celebrate for too long, lol Well, at least they met my bar for this month: finish around .500. Since they've done that they'll have a chance to figure some things out and get going...encouraging starts by Baz on Tuesday and Bassit today. Hope that "come to Jesus" meeting Bass said they had will bear some fruit. Consistency, consistency, consistency...ya see the flashes but it feels like somebody keeps flipping the light switch on and off!
  25. Torch Tiger
    looks decent, but a few drunks or hookah hitters say it looks May 2005 horrible
  26. powderfreak
    0.33" here.
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