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hey what happened to Uncle? and Rjay? Do they still post here?

Given how chaotic/fast the pattern is we won’t know more until tomorrow evening probably. Hopefully we can thread the needle and have a decent enough event but it will be a small window with a vigorous enough shortwave taking a good track. Lots of ways it can go wrong.

It is gonna take me forever to remember this PowellVolz. LOL. I have said it before, but glad to see you back posting here.

The CMC was actually pretty close to getting eastern areas with heavier stuff

Going down to Atlantic City from Friday -monday. Maybe I'll see couple inches down there

Good analysis. We want to see heights rise a bit to the east so we can get some moisture and lift up over our area. Hoping to see this trend continue a bit further.

I think some areas will receive a few inches while others receive only a coating and this will turn into a nowcasting event and it's impossible to predict which area of the region will receive what amounts until the storm is approaching the region and in progress probably

8hrs of Christmas rain. Enjoy.

Enjoy! That's the way if you live in this area -- go north or south if you want snow

Its a fun drive

That looks interesting .

I am watching the 12z GFS roll in right now. Through 174, it is much colder across the NA continent. Let's see if that trend continues to hold for the rest of the run. This fits the trend of modifying warmer air masses. Looks like it has the post Dec 20 cold front rolling down the Canadia Prairies. Let's see if it can push all the way SE - I am still 50/50 on whether it can make it. Nice push SE on this run.

For future runs, watch the sharpness and how far west the SW can trend. Good signs the last couple of runs.

CMC is a miss north for basically PA/MD line south but did jump significantly south from 0z

definitely possible...the BL may be a bit torched down that way.

Canadian doesn’t look bad. It’s kind of close to getting eastern areas when it really gets going just offshore

CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented

Cmc

Good luck with your first winter storm thread

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum. I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility. In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

It is quite obvious to me that the 15z RAP is the only current model with a hand on this clipper (kidding good luck to those further south of Chicago)

I did it for the team lol

Atta boy !

DDH often has bare ground while four miles away as the crow flies up Route 9 Mitch has feet. Especially when there are lake streamers which lose their juice but then slam into the wall of the Greens. Route 9 between Bennington and Woodford can be ugly!

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going. I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA. May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.