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It will be increasingly cloudy and cold tomorrow. Light to moderate snow will overspread the region tomorrow night. The New York City area will see a general 1"-3" snowfall with a few locally higher amounts. In the wake of the system, Sunday and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing. The WPO is falling toward severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -4.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.811 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8° (4.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Last night when it really started accumulating quickly.

The OG TV mets of the 90s/00s ain't walking through that door.

Anyone with that last name likely has some life problems

Long as he didn't create a slight breach of etiquette by skipping the triple dare you.

Yes.

Mike Wankum doesn't float your boat??

I still favor channel 5 more than most. Conservative in the Harvey mold.

lol..was gonna say…most just rip and read. Not all, but most.

18z EURO held - just a little drier

I fear being in the substance zone out here in Western Berks it’s happened before and it’s not fun.

Do we have worthwhile local mets anymore?

Check out what the top 2 clusters (left 1 to right 2) from this run end up with by the end of that same period...

Wasn't there a good ice storm in 2008, mostly in Mass?

Wait, I thought I was supposed to break out my shorts for Christmas after yesterday's runs.

The experimental replacement NAM is juiced 3-5"

When I lived in Central PA we had numerous setups like this where snow just skipped over the middle third of the state because of downslope, and it always sucked.

Seems like 1-2" for many SOP. 2-4" S coast. I'm expecting 1" here.

I think tourettes and dyslexia

Yeap both are fugly. But what is dipticted on the 18z gfs is a path to victory with a cold front blowing through with a low pressure forming SW of us the next day. Of course a thread the needle that will be gone by 00z but we can all dream of a white Christmas for 6 hours...

Here at the coast we’re starting at or slightly above freezing which is of course the thorn in most of our setups. It’ll cool quickly though. Hopefully the robust models win out, there could definitely be some good banding for a while that could drop an inch an hour or so.

Local mets are NOT impressed with this. Most mentioning using broom for your car on Sunday morning in Boston.

There should be a little more after that. Still a few more frames of snow. Bncho jumped the gun a little

You f’n should be. You’re a beggar now…take what you can get..And appreciate. You at rock bottom bro..the last 3-4 yrs have taken you down to humble levels.

Operational Gfs and 12z Euro sure give more hope than their ensembles.