All Activity

.70 here

Not worried about the defense with Minter. The OL penalties and gaffes are the main issue. We shall see about our kicker with no confidence in a big spot.

The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal.

I would think tree growth would raise minimum temps. I find at my house when the temperature reading is in the open I get good radiational cooling but under tree growth readings are higher.

I hope everyone will enjoy their visits to the Harrisburg Desert.

Lot of good stuff so far. Lot of same old ravens as well…

Interior OL, as expected, is problematic. Looks Like Zay might be out now with a hammy. Colts will make this a game.

I was so frustrated because I called that blizzard down to within just a few days during the fall, but expected it to get up here....just brutal.

And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC? I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others only somewhat similar in JAS: 2015: still had good # in IO 1994: still had large # in MC

On ACK and the streets have 6” of water running down. Crazy.

Unexpected lines of showers passing through Metro DC.

4.03" maybe another .1 looking at radar.

What a breath of fresh air that is after the last 11 years.

Congratulations on the new baby and love the site.

At least the IOD has finally popped positive as long expected. This along with the rising PDO and resumption of the strengthening El Nino all points towards a different winter ahead than what we have seen for much of the last decade. I suspect warm and wet down here for most of it, with a window for some cold or snow sometime Jan or Feb.

Getting a little shower. Helps with the grass seed.

2.52"

Sorry on the slow reply, we have a new baby in the house so I've been pretty checked out. I am now doing some backend overhaul to clean up some bad coding from one of my AI agents but I will get the seasonal forecast on there soon if it didn't fix itself already. Anybody who has worked with AI knows what I am talking about when I say extreme tunnel vision in AI agents makes coding "islands" and if you don't manage it carefully it can get pretty out of hand. The PDO calculation is a little higher on mine, probably because I went to some effort to try to normalize out the global warming signal. It should at least trend up and down at the same rate as NOAA but have less of a negative bias.

Kids football on Duxbury we had a random lightning strike really close to the field . Scared the crap out of everybody. .

It was Deadmans Creek that flooded, not the entire Saugatuck. Still the worst flooding I've seen from a rainstorm there ever.

0.51". Table scraps Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

They tend to be pretty accurate with the big picture, as the MJO orbit is very predictable. Minor details, such as exact strength of the WWB, exact day (late sept or early oct) are more TBD and this won’t accurately predict that this far out.

Some crazy flooding over in Bloomfield.

Guess it rained a lot! Lots of flooding in my area.

I'm so f@#king sick of the heat. Feels like temp 105.4 WTF