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  2. frd
    Machine learning did well in review, pointing out days well in advance. At least from what I read 7 to 10 days ago.
  3. yoda
    Looks like next week we go again Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026
  4. WxUSAF
    A 7.6” CoCoRAHS report from central WV! HoCo was a relative jackpot it looks like. 3.54” in downtown Columbia where I was getting soaked running to the movies and @canderson was at merriweather.
  5. Chrisrotary12
    Do you know what we got for rain?
  6. Jed33
    Finally the firehouse is off at the house for the moment. Ended up with around 2.73in of rain for the moment. Kinda glad I was on the southern end of it, as like Carver said, just 4mi to my W/NW, Radarscope is estimating Bean Station has had close to 6in of rain!!!
  7. GaWx
    Latest mean of CFS AAM prog: steady as she goes +1.5 to +2.0 into mid August indicative of strong El Niño (further out usually higher/too high due to + bias):
  8. MANDA
    This is what I could find on the fly. Have to get out the door. Will dig further for max monthly. Note: I don't track by calendar day. Obs. are from 8am - 8am.
  9. powderfreak
    Another nice day in Vermont, under that Mount Mansfield glacier… the fabled Picnic Table Icesheet.
  10. IrishRob17
    My records go back to 2005.
  11. MANDA
    Don't have any information on rainfall rates here. My period of record here is just about 9 years. Will have to go back and look to see what my wettest month was. Good question.
  12. MANDA
    Rainfall totals yesterday. You either got in on it or you didn't. Click map to enlarge.
  13. Carvers Gap
    One thing which is nice about this in NE TN(not relief for everyone as has been shared), the drought is getting busted up here. We aren’t there yet, but much better off than during spring and winter.
  14. IrishRob17
    Do you happen to have any rainfall rate information from your station? I'm at 9.74" for the month making it the second wettest July for me, only topped by 2023 with 13.95". My average is 4.85". Interesting to note that I had .08" more in the Stratus than in the Davis which had to be due to splash out from the Davis in the 12.52" per hour rate for five minutes followed by a 11.76" rate for five minutes around 9:30pm last night.
  15. Carvers Gap
    As Jeff noted, that stalled frontal boundary has reared its ugly head this AM. Bean Station is seeing a lot of heavy rain.
  16. forkyfork
    you are the target audience
  17. MANDA
    Total for yesterday 3.10". Two rounds. Early morning 1.72" in about 45 minutes. Second round with tornado warned storm early afternoon dropped 1.37" in about 15 minutes. Finished with .01" during the evening in a quick moving light shower. I'm good with rain for a while. Need some time for the ground to dry out. No need to water here anytime soon. Everything is as green as it could possibly be. @bluewave posted above the next big ridge looks to be centered more west over the western plains or Rockies. Watch for weak downstream trof over the east. Depending on placement that could signal another round of wet weather. A trof axis over the Ohio Valley or along the Appalachians would make for a wetter go around here.
  18. tamarack
    The forester with whom we contracted in 2011 for forest inventory and modeling once commented, "All models are wrong, but some are useful." When Maine Public Lands contracted an inventory in 1999 (different contractor), the DOD had yet to remove the GPS scramble for non-military users. We had the foresters run their GPS units for 30 minutes on both the first and last of the 12-point cruise lines, with the goal of having the hundreds of scrambled hits averaging close to true location. We assumed the hits were truly random rather than biased.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the heat, but the humidity is no prize, either....but I expect that in August...by far the most humid month, while July is hottest. It's the inverse of the winter, when January is coldest, but February is snowiest. at least here on the east coast.
  20. Torch Tiger
    2% tor hatch for ME today ...New England... A shortwave trough/moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be favorably timed with diurnal destabilization during the afternoon, particularly for New Hampshire into Maine. As the cold front progresses eastward, scattered storms are expected to develop. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and strong upper-level winds will support the possibility of some supercells aside from organized multicells. Damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado are all possible this afternoon until around sunset.
  21. GaWx

    TS Bertha

    GaWx replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    6Z UKMET: weaker than 0Z’s 999 mb with 1005 mb when near GLV (hour 39). Most of rainfall S of GLV, where <1” falls, and Houston, where <0.5” falls. Peak of ~4” Matagorda Bay.
  22. Go Kart Mozart
    Do you know what our annual average is?
  23. Go Kart Mozart
    C'mon Sun, heat that ground!
  24. A-L-E-K
  25. Typhoon Tip
    I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself. If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing. Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' ) We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific. Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago. Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that. But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway. So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues. Okay - Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha
  26. Brian5671
    Havent said this in a couple years but no more rain for awhile please-10 inches+ this month here with 9 days to go
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