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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions of Montana. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required. Convection across southeast Quebec has struggled to maintained intensity as it approaches the U.S. border through mid-afternoon with abundant cirrus, smoke, and cloud debris overspreading central to northern ME. Recent surface observations show temperatures remaining in the mid/upper 70s, which is supporting very limited MLCAPE per the 18 UTC CAR RAOB. This casts considerable uncertainty on the degree of destabilization that will occur through the early evening hours. Latest CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend and depicts low probabilities for intense UH and/or strong wind swaths across northern ME. 30%/Enhanced contours were trimmed southward to account for this decreased confidence. Further southwest, warmer temperatures in the 80s are supporting a more volatile atmosphere with MLCAPE values estimated to be around 2000 J/kg. Strong shear remains across the region per VWP observations, and CAM guidance continues to depict some potential for intense convection traversing northern NY, VT, NH and western ME later this evening as the primary surface trough migrates east. Risk probabilities have been shifted southwest to better align with the better thermodynamic environment and convective signal. However, the recent convective trends upstream and modulating influence of wildfire smoke on boundary-layer mixing/CIN reduction casts uncertainty on how widespread the severe threat may be.

91 here smoke clearing out northeast to southwst (for now) this batch.

It’s far from chase country but I can’t believe I’m not up there today.

covid

Sounds like the 2000 SPC OTLK is saying the smoke is an issue

lake michigan shore temps in chicago already at 75, inanely nice swim conditions

Mt Pleasant at 100, Oscoda County at 104, models definitely had a good handle on the placement of the hottest temps being northeast central MI

18z NAM gone wild in upstate NY. That hodographs is nuts. About as perfect of winds turning with height as you'll see lol...maybe would want just a tad more southerly component to sfc wind. But over 4000 J of MLCAPE in this kinematic environment

Meh another banded/plume's settling thru the area in a couple hours as this image's looping is SSE

What a putrid looking sky.. someone tell hippy to put the giant bong down so we can all breathe easy again!

Yeah smoke lessened some, up to 89

88/71 here ..suns stronger as well. Won't verify advisories ... but it's still warm. - actually, it appears they've canceled headlines

90/99

90f denied. High 79f Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

83 here. The dews are the real deal though. 73F on local Davis stations. I know that is probably off a bit but still

97 at Toronto -Pearson

Probably not too much of a leap to think that the smoke might be holding temps back a bit.

Scary stuff

Smoke is clearing out of CT now. BDL should run up to at least 93-94 next few hours

Blast furnace w/ BOS now G32kt?

Interesting read about what happened to Earthlight. https://people.com/healthy-36-year-old-reveals-warning-signs-before-suffering-widowmaker-heart-attack-exclusive-12018433?taid=6a5558621fb3140001d6dcb4&utm_campaign=peoplemagazine&utm_content=new&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com

Interesting read about what happened to Earthlight. https://people.com/healthy-36-year-old-reveals-warning-signs-before-suffering-widowmaker-heart-attack-exclusive-12018433?taid=6a5558621fb3140001d6dcb4&utm_campaign=peoplemagazine&utm_content=new&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com

MKE was 97F at the last METAR observation. Up to 98F/99F now, per 5 minute observations. Last ob was 99F. Due to rounding probably only 98F, but definitely above 97F.

-10 degree temp bust here smoke 'em if you got 'em