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Weekend looking much better now

Same

Cloudy again this morning. The forecast is for mostly sunny skies

The Euro issues an extended forecast every two months. These really long range forecasts aren’t always the most accurate. But Nino 1.2 has reached a new all-rime high of +5.345. This is even beyond what the Euro was forecasting. So the warm pool in the EPAC is stronger than anything that we have seen. This makes it plausible that this event could linger at least into next June. Even models like the CFS which had this peaking in +1.2 at only +4.5 are showing it going into at least next June in 1+2. The record breaking WWBs just keep pushing the warm pool further east than model forecasts. So such an extreme heat build up in the EPAC will take to wind down.

Did you notice that the 3 ensembles as of 0z runs continue showing a decently +NAO thru mid October? @Stormchaserchuck1

Add more sheet drizzle

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

The ecmwf was upgraded on May 12, 2026. What do you notice? IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live What's likely happening here is actually the new ecmwf 2 m temperatures over the Arctic are more accurate as the near surface inversion is more properly coupled to the ice and the cold ocean. The old 2 m ERA40 climatology is what's too warm.

Low of 62. A little muggy coming up but otherwise solid weather ahead.

This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice.

The rather obvious issue is youre comparing the ecmwf operational forecast 2 m temperature all summer to the ERA40 (old climatology) temperature of the reanalysis (apples to oranges). Copernicus/ECMWF climate pulse i posted is comparing the reanalysis anomalies to 1991-2020 ERA5 climatology and clearly by that standard (apples to apples) the summer temperatures are not crazy anomalous.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·20 minutes ago · Quick turnaround to summerlike warmth to end September and start October Showers expected Friday with cooler weekend forecast trending drier Increasing confidence in frost/freeze risk early next week

Did not expect another .13 last night. wtf.

Larry, I think that UKMET forecast showing Fay coming back this weekend is likely not a total outlier. Moreover, seems Fay may have been deactivated too fast; it's almost like she's taunting NHC - every time they try to deactivate her, convection increases and she refuses to die! https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105201133736415667

Not really. You had low activity seasons in 2006 (after setting the one-year, 2-year, and 3-year ACE records in 2003-05) and 2013 (after 3 seasons of 19 storms in 2010-12). Both of the years that followed (2007 and 2014) also had low activity/ACE seasons. So, 2027 could be another low activity season, even if we get a la nina (keep in mind, 2007 was a strong la nina).

Looks like there were 3 distinct "hotspots": 1) Central coastal NJ 2) Western Suffolk, especially North Shore 3) Eastern MA

Duration and persistence of high water levels for NJ shore was one key aspect that made this storm unique/unusual: https://x.com/JoeMartWx/status/2104638298111045740

This system was clearly a black swan given the time of year and not being a tropical cyclone: https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105195828478361705

Hey everyone i just posted a full radar animation of this nor'easter and the Sep 13th heavy rain event from IEM. I'd post it here but i can't upload files that big. There's also the PNS and some graphics i made for these two events. I placed them under winter 26-27 but they are just temporary to share. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sep-13-2026 https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sep-25-28-2026