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Your point? All he did was post the model run

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday, if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

Lots of days “tanking” here too

mario ramirez super nino

All I’ve been hearing about is this big Rainer Thursday and it looks like a massive bust here, either way.

Seems like a rain event with maybe some cutover to snow briefly in some lower elevation places.

That's an understatement. Some places got almost half an inch of rain but the vegetation continues to suck it all up. Almost nothing is making it into ground water.

just some sprinkles here from time to time.

.11” so far

Yeah, WTF. Yesterday morning, ECMWF was pretty bullish while the GFS was meh except for the mountains. They seemed to have reversed positions today. Who knows if we get snow, but good moisture looks more and more likely. I'm kind of cheering for rain rather than snow. That last storm was enough for me for the (extended) season.

It will be interesting to see if Philly can record their first 3 consecutive years under 40.00” since the early 1990s . Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain. The hope is that the STJ can come far enough north with the developing super El Niño to increase the rainfall enough in coming months to get over 40.00” by the end of December. Many spots have been running drier than average starting with the big dip in rainfall in September into October 2024. Monthly Total Precipitation for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.84 2.24 1.90 2.11 0.37 M M M M M M M 9.46 2025 0.93 2.05 5.36 2.83 6.22 2.20 4.61 1.73 1.79 2.02 2.30 3.35 35.39 2024 5.91 1.49 7.19 4.16 1.72 4.68 2.44 5.07 0.77 T 2.52 3.45 39.40 2023 3.36 1.32 1.99 5.17 0.24 4.24 5.24 3.25 5.99 0.72 2.75 7.92 42.19 2022 3.35 2.87 2.09 4.51 4.16 5.03 2.20 2.70 2.06 5.80 2.89 4.85 42.51 2021 1.55 4.64 4.21 2.69 3.24 3.06 6.72 6.18 4.61 4.81 0.46 1.64 43.81 2020 2.64 2.46 3.94 3.75 2.20 3.21 5.54 8.53 4.23 4.09 4.79 4.38 49.76 2019 3.92 3.27 3.85 3.02 5.22 7.94 6.03 2.78 1.16 3.87 1.16 5.21 47.43 2018 2.85 6.02 4.74 3.94 5.21 3.34 3.06 4.11 9.76 3.08 9.03 6.38 61.52 2017 2.91 1.30 4.26 3.15 6.33 1.86 5.35 6.05 3.86 3.66 1.30 1.31 41.34 2016 2.63 4.36 2.01 1.75 6.65 1.87 3.88 1.70 3.52 2.06 2.17 2.72 35.32 2015 4.52 2.36 5.52 3.58 1.19 8.88 3.16 0.98 6.27 3.76 1.89 5.14 47.25 2014 3.55 5.12 4.23 6.69 2.91 5.46 4.30 3.55 1.69 2.53 4.07 3.27 47.37 2013 3.34 2.12 2.42 2.32 2.33 10.56 13.24 5.91 3.26 2.45 2.73 5.20 55.88 2012 2.59 1.84 0.79 2.55 3.35 2.94 1.48 5.37 5.48 4.08 1.05 4.42 35.94 2011 3.39 2.65 4.29 5.29 1.91 2.56 2.71 19.31 10.27 3.71 3.87 4.37 64.33 2010 2.19 5.75 7.33 2.65 2.53 2.05 6.28 2.19 3.48 5.01 1.76 3.24 44.46 2009 2.70 0.84 1.62 3.99 4.84 4.79 3.35 10.29 3.65 5.51 2.06 8.86 52.50 2008 1.74 3.93 3.67 2.19 4.55 2.87 3.45 2.44 4.31 1.59 4.02 5.57 40.33 2007 3.35 1.73 3.82 9.05 2.68 4.02 3.44 2.94 0.58 4.66 1.45 4.41 42.13 2006 4.34 1.51 0.91 3.71 2.16 7.95 4.27 3.93 5.97 6.42 4.88 2.15 48.20 2005 4.45 2.61 3.66 5.32 1.27 3.31 4.31 2.57 0.21 8.68 2.86 2.97 42.22 2004 1.70 2.50 3.54 6.02 3.62 4.57 7.91 4.17 5.19 2.24 4.55 3.17 49.18 2003 1.93 5.04 4.09 2.20 4.17 8.08 2.01 3.26 4.66 4.45 2.63 5.46 47.98 2002 2.43 0.55 4.03 2.17 3.57 3.73 2.12 2.47 3.67 5.90 4.65 4.05 39.34 2001 2.77 3.04 5.44 1.49 3.99 5.93 1.30 0.97 2.58 0.83 0.56 2.11 31.01 2000 3.22 2.02 6.32 3.05 3.03 3.82 5.54 2.90 8.28 1.51 2.21 2.82 44.72 1999 4.89 2.95 4.02 3.31 3.70 1.16 1.22 5.32 13.07 3.55 2.31 2.99 48.49 1998 4.24 3.25 3.93 2.70 3.87 4.91 1.79 1.26 1.86 1.84 1.18 0.82 31.65 1997 2.80 2.48 3.91 2.58 2.32 1.49 2.38 4.56 1.59 1.83 3.49 3.09 32.52 1996 4.39 2.12 4.27 4.48 3.25 4.73 8.17 4.29 4.95 4.30 3.03 8.47 56.45 1995 3.10 2.41 1.67 1.96 2.67 0.62 2.92 1.15 3.55 5.99 3.34 2.15 31.53 1994 4.27 3.27 6.44 2.86 3.66 1.74 10.42 4.54 1.64 0.94 3.03 2.11 44.92 1993 1.97 3.03 6.61 4.20 2.42 1.52 1.98 5.18 6.66 2.69 2.23 3.69 42.18 1992 0.88 1.31 3.19 1.26 2.74 1.84 5.05 2.00 3.04 1.23 3.26 4.61 30.41 1991 4.10 0.75 4.13 2.81 1.82 3.36 4.79 3.86 3.58 1.61 1.55 3.86 36.22 1990 4.09 1.44 2.59 3.16 6.08 3.39 2.62 4.07 1.71 1.68 1.17 3.79 35.79 1989 2.41 3.25 4.41 2.27 6.76 4.73 9.44 3.92 5.03 3.44 1.79 1.21 48.66 1988 2.72 4.11 2.24 2.92 3.67 0.57 8.07 3.16 2.62 2.16 5.17 1.00 38.41 1987 4.58 1.17 1.16 3.63 3.15 2.01 4.82 3.72 2.78 2.62 2.08 1.68 33.40 1986 4.13 3.38 1.25 4.46 0.70 1.99 4.10 3.70 2.33 2.22 6.27 5.89 40.42 1985 1.55 2.44 1.95 0.52 4.99 1.88 4.66 2.82 5.78 1.54 6.09 0.98 35.20 1984 2.22 2.81 6.14 4.25 6.87 2.85 6.99 3.28 1.96 2.56 1.56 2.17 43.66 1983 2.81 3.53 6.95 8.12 7.03 2.75 0.68 2.57 3.45 3.69 5.71 7.37 54.66 1982 4.45 3.16 2.66 6.06 4.47 5.76 1.94 2.20 2.32 1.94 3.67 1.80 40.43 1981 0.50 2.94 1.61 3.60 4.53 4.40 4.54 5.11 2.83 2.68 0.95 4.14 37.83 1980 2.27 0.96 7.01 4.79 3.22 1.73 6.58 0.80 2.79 5.03 2.85 0.77 38.80 1979 8.74 6.44 2.43 4.08 3.98 4.34 3.95 5.95 4.89 3.84 2.48 1.67 52.79 1978 8.86 1.35 4.31 1.76 6.01 1.75 5.27 6.04 1.59 1.20 2.20 5.61 45.95 1977 2.61 1.33 4.19 5.59 0.70 5.33 1.47 8.70 3.44 3.11 7.76 5.19 49.42 1976 4.50 1.66 2.38 2.06 4.35 3.42 4.04 2.17 2.44 4.30 0.32 1.63 33.27 1975 4.00 2.91 4.68 2.97 4.99 7.57 6.32 2.21 7.21 3.24 3.14 2.89 52.13 1974 2.95 2.14 4.91 2.77 3.21 4.43 2.08 3.83 4.68 1.93 0.81 4.04 37.78 1973 3.93 2.96 3.52 6.68 4.14 7.88 2.39 2.03 3.39 2.16 0.64 6.34 46.06 1972 2.34 5.09 2.69 4.08 4.11 5.79 2.62 3.76 1.12 3.77 9.06 5.20 49.63 1971 2.13 5.43 2.58 1.84 4.10 1.01 4.84 9.61 5.83 3.84 5.37 1.21 47.79 1970 0.74 2.08 3.83 6.12 2.57 4.60 2.75 3.99 0.82 3.66 4.71 3.27 39.14 1969 1.57 1.88 1.92 1.68 3.30 7.31 8.33 2.66 4.38 1.13 1.97 7.23 43.36 1968 2.90 1.40 4.98 1.57 5.17 5.89 2.00 1.24 0.44 3.15 4.17 2.54 35.45 1967 1.67 1.82 4.53 2.17 3.49 4.12 7.11 7.08 2.96 2.00 1.99 5.88 44.82 1966 2.82 4.30 0.68 4.35 2.95 0.41 2.35 1.63 8.70 5.12 2.36 4.33 40.00 1965 2.35 2.18 3.19 2.33 1.23 2.85 3.22 4.05 3.02 2.02 1.05 1.85 29.34 1964 3.92 2.83 1.94 5.27 0.47 0.21 3.83 0.49 2.42 1.73 1.64 5.13 29.88 1963 2.31 2.19 3.94 1.13 1.06 2.88 3.13 3.35 6.44 0.09 6.67 1.76 34.95

This thread should hopefully spur to life a bit with the overall longwave pattern shifting. Our good friend the WAR will be making a comeback which should open the door with better theta_E advection into the Mid Atlantic. We've been void of persistent southerly flow for a while with the NW flow regime basically a deterrent to any type of warm advection regime in this area of the country.

Mild approaching the mid 60s and dews

that's a good point. Didn't consider that. I tell you what ...I bet now that we're in the solar max we may still do better. I'll let it ride and take the hit if I'm wrong. I'm still thinking 77's doable but yeah. Part of my thinking is that we're facing a pretty significant built in correction vector, one with an explosively long room, too. As an aside, this really is an impressive wholesale change coming after tomorrow Just sayn', 2-m in NAM's 69 at ORH and 71 BED at 18z. That's garbage under near full sun and superb wind direction during a summer mixing profile. BL is gonna get tall. We all know FIT/ASH/BED are 6 F warmer than ORH in that setting. Granted MET MOS is 75 so ... it's a nerd's quibble.

.50" blockbuster

Maybe but the heaviest is and will be East . Just light stuff left

Also, entertaining low grade heat wave Mon-Wed. 89-92 variety... close. Subtle yet crucially amplifying ridge heights are situated nicely for deep layer heat transport in recent multi-source guidance. It could tick more pronounced yet, too. Also, no BD or N-door frontal sag until perhaps too late on Wed to matter. Meanwhile, 850s are steadily improving from 10 all the way to 16c thru the weekend prior, and the general cloud RH fields are < 60% so sun soaking after elevating successive launch temperatures. Not big heat by very warm. Civility taken off guard a little...despite technical above average April it really has not sensibly appealed that way.

Only caveat may be we’re going to sobbing wet up here with standing puddles. It may be difficult to get good surface warming in rural areas…especially where 2”+ rain falls.

I'd use MAV for Saturday. METs not high enough for those synoptic params. If you look at the 850s warming from 15 thru 21z in a pocket just E of over the water, that's actually mixed diurnal plume leaving the coast - which means the mix hgt actually made that level. It's 10C, and the adiabtic extrapolation to 1000 mb is 22.5 ...so the mandatory 2 to 3 slope addition to the real sfc yields closer to 25 C ( 77), which is what the MAV sports. That could also be a deg shy, too

You’re in the axis. More rain cometh.

50.2° 1.28” in the last 24hrs

May 14 2013: Minneapolis sets a record high temperature of 98 degrees, breaking the previous record of 95 set in 1932. For Thursday, May 14, 2026 1896 - The mercury plunged to 10 degrees below zero at Climax, CO. It was the lowest reading of record for the U.S. during the month of May. (David Ludlum) 1898 - A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Seven cities across the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as unseasonably hot weather made a comeback. The record high of 103 degrees at Sacramento CA was their ninth in eleven days, and also marked a record seven days of 100 degree heat for the month. Their previous record was two days of 100 degree heat in May. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the nation. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the Great Plains Region and the Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather in south central Texas and the Southern High Plains Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail at Spearman and Hitchcock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to western Missouri. Severe thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including nine in Texas. Four tornadoes in Texas injured a total of nine persons. Thunderstorms in Texas also produced hail four inches in diameter at Shamrock, and hail four and a half inches in diameter near Guthrie. Thunderstorms over northeastern Kansas produced more than seven inches of rain in Chautauqua County between 9 PM and midnight. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Grass is becoming mowable, but trees are behind in budding. Warmer temps in the 60-70's this weekend with W to SW winds will accelerate that process (like watching corn grow). Looks like NE winds, and a chance for showers/stm Sunday aftrn.

Hopefully .2” there and 2” here

Just crazy how 3 days ago it was an inch and we couldn't even squeeze out a tenth of that