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The models all show the PV retreating into Canada mid month and the polar jet with it. It’s not far which keeps Canada very cold so in Jan if we get a favorable pattern it won’t take much for it to come spilling back south, but we definitely warm up for a while in a pattern like that. It does promote high pressures over Quebec that could help in a SWFE situation but those are 90% of the time good for I-84 and north. Gradient patterns usually aren’t great for I-80/NYC unless we see something epic like 93-94. They’re a lot better for I-90 and north and that’s where New England that’s been skunked can catch up in a big way.

When winter used to be winter..60-61 was one of the great ones...

It was epic! I was in the 8th grade in NNJ and woke up Sunday 12/11 with “provisional heavy snow warning”. That was the precursor to today’s winter storm watch. But more importantly after a mega torch in the early days of December culminating in temperatures near 70 on 12/4. It was in the mid 40s on the 10th so imagine my surprise (and joy) to awaken to high clouds and 25. My mother made me sweep the garage that morning and for once I happily complied as I warded off the oak leaves blowing into the north facing garage. By the time I was done the temperature dropped into the low 20s. My Giants were playing Washington in DC and at the start of the broadcast the announcer exclaimed “we’re having a blizzard!” I remember one TD pass from YA Tittle to Del Shofner with Shofner ending up in a snow bank. It started snowing around 3pm and it was fairly light for the first 6 hours and I was starting to lose hope. Finally it started picking up and by time I fell asleep it was snowing pretty hard. I woke up at 5AM Monday and it was raging. Snow tapered off close to Noon. Temperatures during the meat of the storm were near 10. The storm paralyzed the megopolis. It was the first of 3 big ones that winter. The other 2 were the JFK inaugural storm and the widespread 2 footer February 3-4. The February storm was the pattern changer and winter was never the same that year but what a 2 month run!

But 1988-89 was a mild winter just as well

ru drunk? or are you high because of the snow maps on your yard lol

was gonna say... this has been a great set of runs with the GFS finally budging a bit, but that just means we could be set up for a vintage Dr. No moment

I think the other thing - not a lot to “track” per se. Just a clipper with decent potential due to ratios and banding.

Since the models showed 1988,went back to look at the MJO IN 1988,it did some weird shit also,but this was a strong NINA unlike this year,no worries Jeff,i dont share anything here on this board unless you say i can

Yyyeeeeaaahhjj baby Watch the euro zig while all other guidance zags and totally shit the bed

We will definitely warm up but it might not be long lasting.

Bears game will be cold but temps in low teens and wind chill around 0? That’s probably an every few years occurrence (if not more frequent) in the NFL between there, Lambeau Field, Arrowhead, etc. .

We had some pretty flakes in west Cary.

Happy for you N/W folks! Also, happy that we have a variety of outdoor camera brands that now provide this kind of on-the-spot coverage...

Today a coalition of DC Snow Enjoyers announced a plan to curtail the down sloping effect by LEVELING THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. In order to preserve cold air damming (when needed), the mountains will be replaced with a retractable CAD wall. We are not asking for public funding for this project. All we ask is for exclusive rights to develop a mixed-use, walkable community atop the Great Appalachian CAD Wall.

Natural gas is down still another 3% on the day, which brings the total drop since the peak of 8 days ago to a very steep 25% on an anticipated much warmer E US pattern (though maybe not to a torch in the means as I stated in my prior post) starting mid to late next week and continuing for the foreseeable future! At least that’s some good news for future heating bills. @Stormchaserchuck1

Back to cold now for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day on the GFS

Cool to see several reports around or even over an inch of snow from yesterday's snow showers in Morris, Warren, and Sussex counties. That made two days in a row of accumulating snow for the higher elevations. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI This was pretty well modeled.

and those gradient patterns are better for upstate NY and central/northern NE. 93-94 is an exception when the gradient was south of NYC

We’re not used to snow before Christmas. I think I golfed this week last year

Almost zero chance we avoid some way above average days starting at the end of next week. Whether its sustained or not is a different animal.

Like Baltimore being in a good spot rather consistently on these runs so far...only 40 hours to go, lol

Bah Humbug! This fits better in severe than general December, where we have one more clipper / frontogenesis north of I-40. Warm themes could lead to severe. Please don't share commercial, but it's not a huge surprise. Everyone can see the weekly models. Straight North American pattern recognition.. forget all the teleconnections TCs.. Pineapple Express ends mild downstream. Current Pac NW firehose is why our Sunday cold front will be history by Tuesday afternoon. But the TCs are going to the dogs too. North Pac ridge going to the Aleutians not eastern Alaska. -PNA +EPO torch regardless of the WPO. Guess Jax and I are going to end up chasing the OV Midwest.

It makes sense to have the pendulum swing after a persistent cold first half of Dec but unfortunately the next pattern will prob be persistent for several weeks at least and it's one that pretty much closes the door on snow chances. The closest analog is second half of Dec of 2021. Jan 2022 did produce a storm but it was a weird one. My Rockville yard loved it but it was another of a long string of small maximas and forum dividers. Not saying I expect a repeat or anything just that the trip out of the current progs has produced in the recent past. We'll see how things unfold over the next couple weeks but I'm not a big fan of a persistent GOA low with no blocking. I really don't want to see that become the winter personality. My gut says blocking will return but that's just a guess. I'm not expecting a quick flip back to deep winter based on current progs. Would likely be more of a frustrating grind through the first half of Jan. If the GOA low becomes a mainstay, posting quality and fun factor here will decline precipitously lol. ETA: I think I'm remembering the early Jan 2022 storm incorrectly. Does anyone have a final snow map for it?

I’d buy that

12z GFS says what Christmas torch?