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It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4.

Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2? However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly.

If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.

The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.

The Os just went into Houston and swept the stros out of the break. Damn. Dont give me hope.

1.82 yesterday

Yeah after the last two years I don't even care if it snows down here this winter , I'm just fine with noreaster after noreaster of 40F and rain (I'll change my tune in December).

Just got off the river with the fam, absolutely perfect day.

Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino

It was quite a dump of CP air. It feels great but I dunno about autumnal, although if I had a hoodie with me this morning I might have put it on.

And now it's three quarters to one inch. No idea why they constantly do this knowing the scattered nature of how we get rain in the summer. Tomorrow morning it will be a quarter to a half, or 'tenth of an inch or less except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms', which should always be the default unless a stratiform/widespread general rain in expected.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the eastern Gulf. The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S. builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That motion should take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Hmmmm yours does seem high then, but it could have just poured more immediately at your house haha.

Recon shows TD2 meandering with not much change in organization. Going to take time for meaningful intensification but ensembles are still bullish **if** the LLC can stay south.

Seems delusional to think otherwise at this point tbh.

Buy a rain Guage at your local hardware store and compare readings after it rains.

I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6. The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis. Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6): 37.5 in 2023-4 36.8 in 2015-6 36.5 in 1999-00 36.4 in 1991-2 36.3 in 2011-2 36.3 in 1998-9 36.0 in 1999-00 Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

one of the few this summer so far IMO between the excessive long heat spells combined with high humidity and the recent smoke and flooding rains - this summer has not been that great if you enjoy spending time outdoors.........maybe we will get a longer stretch of comfortable nicer weather starting next Thursday..........

Yup, even down here in the swampy hot coastal plain suburbs of NYC the snow last winter was nearly all blower powder. Very odd for us. Only the mid december storm was wet.

Definitely...bit hot in the sun but beautiful in the shade with the breeze. I wonder if the World Cup has anything to do with lower than normal crowds. Google Map is showing much less traffic than I would've expected on a nice summer Sunday. Ended yesterday's rain event with 1.80" of rain in NE Queens. Most of it was from the noontime deluge, as we missed the bulk of the afternoon/evening storms to the north and south.

No D3 enhanced for us east of Garrett county. Could be they want the front timing to get a little more precise?

A beautiful afternoon at the lake. Partly cloudy skies and 70/65. Smoke from earlier seems to be clearing. Heading into the 50s tonight and heading to the fairgrounds to see the Garrett County drone show for America’s 250th.

Nice heat signal first week of Augdewst . Similar to the early look from the one in late Junorch . Folks were calling for cold and blues and we warned it would not happen

Who said anything about tropical convection? My reply was strictly in regard to how the forecast you posted compared to April 1998.