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The idea that the bedrock collapsed leading to the glacial collapse and subsequent debris flow has gained increasing support. However, one can't automatically suggest that because the bedrock collapsed, climate change wasn't involved. The literature links a warming climate to destabilization of high mountain terrain. One recent study noted: The study found that rising temperatures are destabilizing high mountain terrain in India’s Kinnaur district and creating conditions that could trigger chains of disasters, including avalanches or landslides that spill into glacier lakes and produce destructive flooding downstream. A quick assessment by University of Colorado researchers also linked climate change observing: Satellite and drone images suggest that softening permafrost, or perennially frozen rock, ice and soil, on Langtang Lirung peak likely caused a massive bedrock failure and glacier collapse. An estimated 50 million metric tons of ice, rock and water—roughly 13 billion gallons, or about three times the capacity of Boulder Reservoir—fell 6,500 feet into the valley below, unleashing a slurry of mud and water that inundated bridges, hydropower facilities and villages along the way. According to the United States Geological Survey, the force of the initial debris flow hitting the ground was equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake... Since the 1850s, changes in high-altitude permafrost have contributed to dozens of these cascading disasters in Nepal and parts of India, in which bedrock and glaciers break off, and trigger massive flash floods and debris flows. For example, in 2012 a slurry flood in central Nepal, similar to what happened in Nepal last week, killed 79 people along the Seti River. The University of Reading also provided the following account: Researchers from the HiRisk project, which investigates cryosphere-related hazards in High Mountain Asia, suggest that longer-term glacier retreat and permafrost degradation may have contributed to slope destabilisation. The failed glacier retreated by approximately 450m between 1990 and 2020, potentially reducing the mechanical support provided by the glacier to the underlying rock slope. Permafrost degradation may have further contributed to instability. The warmer than average temperatures observed in the area this summer might have contributed to the glacier collapse too, although observations at these elevations remain limited. As a side note, this assessment also refers to "warmer than average temperatures" during the summer. That's something the maps I posted showed in contradiction to JB's cropped map. Based on the evidence and literature: 1) A climate link is highly likely, but the magnitude of the contribution from climate change is uncertain. 2) The absence of a climate link is probably close to zero Considering the literature and emerging assessments, the burden of proof rests with those such as Martz to support the argument that climate change played no role. Arguing that climate change played no role (Martz's proposition) is quite different from suggesting that the extent of contribution by climate change remains to be determined. As noted previously, there had been record heat in the region for several days prior to the catastrophe. Moreover, frost-wedging can lead to the fracturing of rocks over long periods of time, and in the warming climate of the altitude Himalayas, this form of weathering has increased in frequency.

I haven't had an AN snowfall season since 20/21. I'm needing this one bad.

Eh, seems Loop has it locked up. Not sure what the point was of bringing Moody in, and so late. Hopefully the Ravens kick ass early in games and the Minter D takes over and a mediocre kicker wont matter as much.

Lets bring that east a tad lol. Looks great for the highlands. Generally expected in a strong Nino though.

Not Moody vs Loop ? :-)

Yes, Aug 26th, but the new Euro Seasonal isnt due out for a couple more days, which means that product included the early August edition. That is clearly not the Sept edition of the ECMWF Seasonal forecast for Feb 2027, as is suggested by Ji. Now whether he misinterpreted it or the dude who posted it fucked up, I have no idea lol.

97 here today. Hottest temp this summer. Currently 93.

He never left, X.

Thanks to forky, Adam @snowman19 is back!

I'm talking about the complex that I posted about around 4:30 in the morning that was due to get here around 8:00 9:00 am this morning If it made it. I stayed up all night last night watching lightning and listening to thunder. Im prepared to do the same tonight If need be, we don't get these patterns too often and i'm not one to miss it.

We're working with stable lapse rates today compared to previous days. We don't have 6 to 7°C cooling per kilometer this evening and these storms aren't maintaining vigor quite like they've been the past few nights. I'm not saying there won't be storms in the area tonight just pointing out an observation.

Storms were pretty bad in Lanco. Lots of thunder and lightning and flooding. Woke me up at 1:00 am. .

The Cansips released 9/1/26 was snowy fwiw.

No it isn't, since the PDO has yet to respond to said record breaking El Niño.

Trust me I didn't ask for it when they tested me

Or maybe just August 2026

Wonder what kept temps down so much today

Got to just 88 but it was so humid that the grass had drops of water on it at 2 pm with the sun out. Steamy

TWs starting to fly from PBZ

https://x.com/metrodetroitn/status/2095634694255829219

Most worrisome thing about the Ravens heading into the season, esp with a brand new offense. Ravens still evaluating center competition ahead of Week 1 https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ravens-still-evaluating-center-competition-195226603.html

Back yard or facing the street? Makes a difference!

This might be the easiest winter for DT WxRisk. He can just leave the Heat Miser as his profile pic the whole winter.

almost took clothes off

I don't believe all the convection, allowing models bring storms this far south and east, This morning, two of three brought that early morning Glaks complex through our area with some strong embedded thunderstorms. And that never happened. The other one dropped a complex through western pennsylvania, and that never happened either. Nevertheless, we have thunderstorms heading in this general direction, and we have plenty of a destabilized environment.