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Yeah, are those departures from normal temperature? Snow map can't be taken seriously for that long period of time. I will say delmarva was supposed to have mid 40s mid8of next week through next weekend. That's changed to mid upper 30s. The long range forecast for around 17-20 has possible upper 30s low 40s with showers and freezing rain, something we definitely don't want. Those long range will definitely keep changing as the transition from winter to spring starts to happen.

It’s a method from 2004 lol. It may be better in cold profiles, but ratios are all about lift in the DGZ and this method has nothing to do with it. You could have arctic sand and Kuchera will spit out fluff.

Broom job #8

Just use precip map and multiply by what you think ratios will be.. It will be very windy so ratios won't be maximized..

I dont even remember everything you wrote in those pm messages but the fact that you brought up salary was hilarious and made you look silly.

CERES net radiation continues to increase off the El Nino bottom set in late summer 2024. The last net radiation peak occurred in January 2023, as the 3-year nina came to an end. With growing signs of a shift from nina to nino conditions another peak is probably developing this winter. If so the next net radiation peak will be well below Jan 2023 levels and more in-line with winter of 21/22 and other recent nina peaks since 2008. Indicates that a portion of the unusually high peak in winter2022/2023 was enso-related. In-any-case the current radiation imbalance would support a rise in global temperatures to record levels if moderate/strong nino conditions develop as forecast.

I thought Kuchera was good for high ratios?

Reggie still going wild on coastal Essex county.

MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.

Ripping here. Eyeballing 3” so far. Two inch per hour rates with this band moving through.

WB latest EPS extended says cold and stormy between February 22 and March 22. Will it actually snow? Who knows....but this is not a winter is definitely over look.

Here come da mud

Like I said. It’s like talking to a wall when you ask not to post them.

Ridiculous to say winter is over with the arctic blast arriving this evening. Bunch of spoiled brats!!!! WB 6Z 3K NAM for tomorrow.

The ground hog must wrong then.

Upon looking into the matter, the ECMWF is actually using a potentially somewhat warmer period than 1991-2020 for calculating its subseasonal anomalies. The site mentions: The mean anomalies are derived from the ECMWF Sub-seasonal range ensemble consisting of 100 ensemble members plus a control member and averaged over a seven day period. Anomalies are calculated with respect to the Model Climate, which is derived from re-running an 11-member ensemble over the last 20 years, giving 220 realisations in total. See bottom of: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202602050000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading A fuller discussion, which also notes 20 years of values, is here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5.3.2+SUBS-M-climate%2C+the+sub-seasonal+model+climatehttps://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5.3.2+SUBS-M-climate%2C+the+sub-seasonal+model+climate Here's how the most recent 20 years compared with 1991-2020 annual mean temperatures for 10 select cities for an idea of how things have changed:

You all are hilarious. But you just proved my point. The mocking, the gaslighting, the bullying, the gang up, you all think you are BETTER THAN ME. Or more broadly, better than "the weenies". This is most evident at needing a very clean model thread and going ape shit over someone daring to be upset for the entire purpose of the thread itself (lack of snow). This is arrogance for a hobby that has no right to have arrogant people in it. You all aren't doctors discussing brain surgery. At the end of the day, what I said in my PM to CAPE is absolutely true. The end.

So many koochies lately

WB 6Z EURO AI says we are still tracking next weekend's system.

Another Kuchera

Frigid 19.8 right now

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent. And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment. I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh. With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

Two days in a row waking up to people saying winter is over.

I’ve been watching the euro AI for two weeks now a couple of times a day. For someone who’s not a meteorologist, and given the good scores of this model, it just gives me a very simple to see output twice a day to get a sense of where things are headed.