All Activity

Keeping with the theme of this winter, my prediction will be less than an inch for MBY. If more than that Terpeast can eat a shoe

Timing similiar to other models? 4-7 am or so? .

Euro was out to see on the last storm in GFS is better with the northern stream yes?

They only recently dropped the C in front of the RAP

Dover reported 7.0 and Rochester had reports of 8.0 and 7.0. PSM only 4.6".

IMO you have been traumatized by repeated cycles of expectation/hype followed by failure/disappointment. Those "patterns" you speak of were imaginary constructs created by weather hobbyists in an era of 4 times per day models run out to 16 days. Models and certainly meteorologists cannot accurately predict regional weather out past 10 days. So don't be fooled. In the 90s we had a handful of short range models out to 2 or 3 days and a handful of medium range models out to 5 or 7 days. They ran twice a day. People didn't pretend to "see" favorable patterns way out in fantasy range. And hobbyists weren't therefore disappointed by not realizing the imagined potential. It is always hard to get snowstorms near NYC. A lot has to go right for it to happen.

Good luck! Sending you all snow and cold from Chicago. Posting back in here under my new name.

I will not hear any RAP slander. Kuchie 1+ for much of Maryland

I have Monday's off so would be perfect for me

Wish we had a bit more downstream ridging but let's see if it can dig more and phase a bit earlier. It becomes a nuke south of Nova Scotia

Monday morning commute disaster on the gfs. Nice little event Monday morning. How we pray

Euro doesn't look bad IMO.

06z euro was close. Hopefully it ticks a bit better at 12z and then I’ll be more intrigued. We’re kind of due for a solid advisory clipper.

Even on the lesser guidance...the signal for a 70-80 knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough as the trough is getting ready to swing across New England...pretty good signal for at least some degree of amplification.

Hopefully other models start showing besides the NAM and GFS

Ambient ws5000

The 12z GFS has shifted a little south and sharper aloft for the Sun-Mon clipper. Looks pretty nice for CNY and NE. Even gets some snow into or close to the City. The shortwave track is pretty far north but the 12z GFS is closest yet to something interesting in that time period. The GFS is not entirely on its own either.

Well unless the Euro bumps norther and juicer, my bar is set at car-topper. Eh. Who we kidding. I’ll probably be at a bar too.

CMC also gets an inch up to DC. The timing has also moved forward rush hour could be messy.

I don't have a lot of friends today except for my bestie... 12z gfs

Prob Dec 17, 2020 (cape got screwed but the rest of SNE basically got 10”+)…Jan ‘22 wasn’t that good out west and Feb 2021 really screwed the coast.

As discussed the other day, these are the ones to watch for. When you have fast flow with an abundance of shortwaves...too many people get all caught up looking for D10 HECSs and miss these potential systems.