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2014 NATL Tropical-Hurricane-Seasonal Forecast Contest

Roger Smith

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GaWx

GaWx

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I've still seen no clarification on this since I've seen no rule addressing this. Does a tropical storm that is first named in July but is first designated a TD in June count only as a June storm (like I think NHC does it) or only as a July storm? I'm assuming it doesn't count in both (i.e., no double counting). I asked a similar question in post #36 at the top of page 2 here but it was never answered.

Edit: My July prediction is changed to 1/1/0, which would incorporate Arthur. Change in seasonal to 8/4/1. These changes were made prior to 18z on 7/1.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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My July forecast will be 2/1/0 but if I see a name on today's candidate before July starts, will be in to edit it down to 1/1/0.

 

Think this one will max out as a TS around the 4th. Then I sort of expect a minimal hurricane probably in the western Gulf later in July.

 

Just one other note, this year, adjusted seasonals are in play only as late contest entries and you'll get the better of the two possible scores. At this point, it's from 50 points on your June 1st entry or 35 points on anything you post today/tomorrow. Beyond that, I think that it would take a vastly different outcome to make any further revised seasonal worth posting let's say around August 1st as you'd be looking at a maximum of 20 points for it.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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I've still seen no clarification on this since I've seen no rule addressing this. Does a tropical storm that is first named in July but is first designated a TD in June count only as a June storm (like I think NHC does it) or only as a July storm? I'm assuming it doesn't count in both (i.e., no double counting). I asked a similar question in post #36 at the top of page 2 here but it was never answered.

Edit: My July prediction is 1/0/0. No change in seasonal.

I thought I tried to answer this earlier (see post 37). Frankly, I don't know if you're right or wrong about how the NHC counts a storm that is a TD at end of one month and then a named storm the next month. I had thought it was the other way around, that the storm counts in the month when it first reaches named status. This could affect the scoring today and tomorrow so for now I will say scores based on assumption (.b.) contest based on month when storm first named but other opinions welcomed. If that's the assumption most are making then I would be comfortable retaining that as a contest rule no matter what the NHC does.

 

Anyway, definitely no double counting of one storm.

 

(later data)

 

Apparently Chris 2006 is an example of this situation. It was declared a TD on July 31 and was a TS by August 1st. Looking for confirmation that NHC counts it as either a July or August storm in their totals. Situation is complicated by fact that an "unnamed storm" was later declared a July tropical storm in Dec 06.

 

For now, assume we are going with same month as named not numbered.

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GaWx

GaWx

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I thought I tried to answer this earlier (see post 37). Frankly, I don't know if you're right or wrong about how the NHC counts a storm that is a TD at end of one month and then a named storm the next month. I had thought it was the other way around, that the storm counts in the month when it first reaches named status. This could affect the scoring today and tomorrow so for now I will say scores based on assumption (.b.) contest based on month when storm first named but other opinions welcomed. If that's the assumption most are making then I would be comfortable retaining that as a contest rule no matter what the NHC does.

 

Anyway, definitely no double counting of one storm.

 

(later data)

 

Apparently Chris 2006 is an example of this situation. It was declared a TD on July 31 and was a TS by August 1st. Looking for confirmation that NHC counts it as either a July or August storm in their totals. Situation is complicated by fact that an "unnamed storm" was later declared a July tropical storm in Dec 06.

 

For now, assume we are going with same month as named not numbered.

 

Roger,

 Thanks (or should I say "Roger, Roger" ;)).

  I just saw it in the post 37 later update and the post above this one. That clarifies it for me. The most important thing from my standpoint is that it be done consistently. So, since you had planned to go by the month in which it gets a name, I'll assume that will be the rule. I had thought that the month for a NS, a H, and a MH went by the month in which it was first declared a tropical cyclone...i.e., a TD. However I could be wrong or perhaps it may vary from datasource to datasource.

 

 Related Q: if something is first declared both a TD and TS in June, but both a H and major H in July, would you consider it a June TS but a July H and July MH? Or would it count as a June TS/H/MH?

 

Edit: I think this is why I thought of the month for a TS/H/MH going by the month in which it first became a TC (TD).

For example, check out Alex of 2004:

 

 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/ALEX/track.dat

 

 This was first declared a TD in July and a TS/H in August. Note how it is listed:

"Date: 31 JUL-06 AUG 2004"

 It sort of looks like Alex is a "July" tropical cyclone in a way based on the way it is listed here. I guess it is just the way I had been looking at it and maybe not how it is officially viewed. But it isn't a big deal either way to me.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Okay, thanks for the added info, I still haven't seen anything definitive as to how NHC count them, but on reflection, we have to go with month declared as named storm because otherwise people are waiting beyond the deadline to find out whether their storm already counts or not. But as to part two of your question, once a storm comes into existence, its later evolution(s) would go along for the ride, so a storm declared later today for example will be a June TS, and if it gets more intense, a "June" H and even a major H.

 

I haven't looked in last hour to see where we're at with TS or TD A, so anyway, the bottom line is that I would always go with the consensus of participants if it seems that my idea of a ruling is not generally accepted, so any input is helpful.

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

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Hey Roger. Thanks for all the hard work you're putting into this endeavor!

I need to clarify that my previous post designating the totals of 1/1/0 for July was based on the premise that you would consider the specific month that a particular storm attained a certain intensity. That is the way I categorize my monthly TC lists. It is also the way the HRD categorizes their data, as well.

Consequently, I was forecasting that TD 1 would become a named storm before 4z July 1. I was/am also expecting prospective "Arthur" to achieve minimal hurricane intensity, thereby becoming the one hurricane I am forecasting for the month of July. This forecast also anticipates one TS will form later this month, but that it doesn't achieve hurricane status.

Thanks again for putting this project together!

Edit: This post has been revised for clarification purposes.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Hey Roger. Thanks for all the hard work you're putting into this endeavor!

I need to clarify that my previous post designating the totals of 1/1/0 for July was based on the premise that you would consider the specific month that a particular storm attained a certain intensity. That is the way I categorize my monthly TC lists. It is also the way the HRD categorizes their data, as well.

Consequently, I was forecasting that TD 1 would become a named storm before 4z July 1. I was/am also expecting prospective "Arthur" to achieve minimal hurricane intensity, thereby becoming the one hurricane I am forecasting for the month of July. This forecast also anticipates one TS will form later this month, but that it doesn't achieve hurricane status.

Thanks again for putting this project together!

Edit: This post has been revised for clarification purposes.

 

So if I'm reading this correctly, you're saying the storm goes to July because as of 04z it was only a TD.

 

This is also how I intend to score the contest.

 

People can edit their forecasts accordingly up to 18z, as I don't expect to start compiling a table of forecasts before then. Anyone who made a conditional forecast is okay to let that stand, I can work from those posts. I am assuming that all earlier forecasts back around 27th-29th had envisaged a July storm from this and not a June storm, as that was the general consensus at the time (and it seems to be verifying).

 

So to clarify, June will score as 0/0/0 and July will include anything TD 1 (Arthur?) actually does.

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tmagan

tmagan

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The NHC counts this as a July formation:

 

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BASIN. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...A NAMED
STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN JUNE ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

NOTE THAT MONTHLY FORMATIONS ARE BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL
TIME...UTC...MEANING THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS OFFICIALLY A
JULY FORMATION.

$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT

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GaWx

GaWx

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The NHC counts this as a July formation:

 

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE IN THE NORTH

ATLANTIC BASIN. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...A NAMED

STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN JUNE ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

NOTE THAT MONTHLY FORMATIONS ARE BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL

TIME...UTC...MEANING THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS OFFICIALLY A

JULY FORMATION.

$

HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT

But note that they show they went by when it first became a TD rather than TS. It just so turns out that the TD formed after 0z last night or after 8 PM last night. Had it formed as a TD a few hours earlier, it would have actually counted as a June storm by the NHC in their June summary, which is kind of what I was getting at in earlier posts.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Yep, it still leaves things a bit ambiguous (not for this contest) as they say the formation belongs to whatever month, but does that mean the named storm portion belongs to that month or the next one? If I could find some link to an official count for recent years it might help answer this.

 

But in future cases the contest will activate storms at the TS level so that forecasts can be made by deadlines with real-time info established.

 

In any case, will update the table of forecasts with some June scores, planning to scale the error function in these smaller point-scoring months so the difference between 0/0/0 and 1/0/0 will be 0.5 etc. That should give a more realistic start to the contest and we'll repeat that in July as well as the Nov-Dec portion. Full score reduction for the three core months. Once I post the provisional forecasts for non-entrants you can either confirm them or change them (it would increase your potential score as the provisionals count 50% -- if you missed this, I added forecasts for June scaled to your seasonals, so you'll get some benefit from each month even if you don't play the months.)

 

________________________

 

 

TABLE OF FORECASTS has been updated, scroll back to June 3 to see it. I will continue to edit it with later entries, but we'll leave it back in June for now, probably post it again in the thread when updated for the August and September monthlies.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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cross-posted from NATL hurricane thread ...

 

Greetings from contest headquarters. It seems rather quiet so, in case it gets busy near end of July or I forget, just wanted to mention to the considerable number of people who read this thread and who entered the contest, there is a monthly component and I have been entering placeholder forecasts for those who didn't drop in after their seasonal entry, just so your score won't fall off too much before you have a chance to try the more active months ahead. I based these placeholders on the "normal" amounts scaled down where necessary to meet your seasonal forecasts. In most cases the decimal amounts while lower than the normals still kept everyone at forecasts of 1/0/0 for June and 1/1/0 for July which is what most of the actual forecasts were also. I'm going to keep doing this in August and September but you might want to drop in and post a monthly yourself (as about half the contestants have been doing) because these provisionals only score 50% of what an actual forecast that is made by the entrant makes.

 

Your seasonal forecast gets some part of 50/100 of the points available and the monthlies get the other 50/100. June was worth 4 and July 6, so if nothing more happens this month, you are not that far behind the pack of active monthly forecasters and could still take the contest with good predictions in more valuable August (12) September (16) and October (10). Regardless, I will post two lists of scores, one for the combined contest, and one for seasonal predictions alone. So if your main interest was the seasonal forecast, that will be a separate contest result.

 

As for revisions, unlike previous years, mid-season revisions will not help very many contestants under the rules in play. In previous years we assigned percentage values to first predictions and two subsequent updates. This year, you can only improve your score with a revision if that revision scores higher than your original after a time penalty of 1% per day. On a practical basis almost any revision offered after mid-July (we are already at a 45% reduction of score as of today) is not going to beat your original forecast, so the revisions are for peace of mind but if you foresee a huge increase (in most cases no huge decrease is possible) you would score more since a season that ended up being 15/10/5 (above all our forecasts and above normal) would definitely score close to zero on forecasts made in most cases. One or two of us could get about 20/50 for that outcome. But at this point, if you don't foresee changes greater than 2/2/2 from your seasonal made June 1st, then you can't improve score by more than 9 (three times (4+2)/2) and as 45% of 50 is 22.5, I think you need to have a revision greater than 4/4/3 which would amount to 26 points to gain anything now. In other words, the contest forecasts are pretty much locked in from early June and nobody can gain at this point unless it's a very substantial change. After August 1st almost no revision could possibly score more points than the originals.

 

Meanwhile, post your August forecasts at any time you wish, up to 06z August 1st. Just a reminder, contest method of counting storms is as follows. Each storm begins to verify in the contest on the date in universal (z) time when it is first named. The date when it acquires a number is irrelevant to the contest. From the time it registers, the storm then counts for the month when it originates, for all of its history, even if it doesn't reach various intensity levels until the next month. You need to factor this into your monthly forecast from information available when you make your monthly forecast. Arthur counts for July, not June. I took all provisional forecasts on the basis of what you said about Arthur before the month began. If you said "2/1/0 if Arthur in July" then you got 2/1/0 as your forecast. If you said that you will now need a storm to become a tropical storm only at some point, to gain all six points. As we are operating on half-scale error points in June and July, a 2/1/0 forecast will get 5.5 points if the actual is 1/1/0 (as of today) and vice versa. A 1/0/0 forecast will get 5 points as of today, but would drop to 4 if we reach 2/1/0. The provisional forecasts (those entered by me to keep seasonal forecasters in the game) would get 50% of those scores in each case. If we happen to get to 3/2/1 then most scores would be too low by the rules and the minimum scoring rule would be invoked. That guarantees that the highest scores will be at least 80%, 70%, 60% and then every interval of 5%, of maximum available.

 

I didn't make it clear in the rules but this maximum scoring protection is only for monthly forecasts, the seasonals will stand or fall on their raw score merits. Starting in August, full error point penalties begin, no more reductions by 50%.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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UPDATE _ July so far stands at 1/1/0 after TD 2 limped out of existence nameless.

 

Time to make an August forecast, you might want to wait and see if there's a TD 3 that gains a name by 00z August 1st, if so, all of its future exploits will stay in July for contest purposes. If there's a TD 3 on July 30-31 that gets a name in August, then it's part of your August forecast challenge.

 

Scores will be updated once the July count is confirmed.

 

My August forecast will be 3/2/1.

 

Remember, you can edit your August forecast any time up to 06z August 1st, I won't be starting to enter the forecasts before then. If you edit after 06z August 1, best to draw attention to it.

 

Seasonal forecasts can be modified at this point but the rules this year mean that you would only get 40% (as of 29th) of your maximum score, so unless you think this revision would still improve your original score, best to stick with the original. In any case I will only count the higher of the two scores so there's no harm in trying.

 

August counts for 10 of the 50 monthly points. You can stick with my system of having a default forecast but the most you can score on that is 5. The default forecasts compare normal 1989-2013 with your seasonal, and adjust the normal values used in the contest to your seasonal. If you predicted roughly half the normal, your monthlies assigned are half the normal values as well. July scores will be posted once the values are confirmed.

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