241 replies to this topic

[audioguy3107]

I'd like to start a post storm outbreak analysis thread here.......Please post meterological analysis, videos, past outbreak comparisons etc. of this absolutely historic outbreak. After spending close to 10 hours following this, I'm exhausted as I'm sure a lot of members on here are. I would love to see some comparisons to past outbreaks in the SE (or the plains) for that matter....but this will most definately surpass the Palm Sunday 1994 and April 8, 1998 outbreaks in just about every parameter.

My final thought for now is that James Spann deserves some type of award for his work yesterday. the death toll is horrific, but imagine what would have happened had this outbreak occured 20 years ago or so. Unthinkable.

Have at it.......

[Stebo]

I'd like to start a post storm outbreak analysis thread here.......Please post meterological analysis, videos, past outbreak comparisons etc. of this absolutely historic outbreak. After spending close to 10 hours following this, I'm exhausted as I'm sure a lot of members on here are. I would love to see some comparisons to past outbreaks in the SE (or the plains) for that matter....but this will most definately surpass the Palm Sunday 1994 and April 8, 1998 outbreaks in just about every parameter.

My final thought for now is that James Spann deserves some type of award for his work yesterday. the death toll is horrific, but imagine what would have happened had this outbreak occured 20 years ago or so. Unthinkable.

Have at it.......

I agree to this entirely, some people don't realize that he was on in the morning too when they were being hit with the initial MCS and tornadoes. Really truly a remarkable job he did yesterday keeping many people informed.

[kanc2001]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1029 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

SCC033-041-051-067-281500-
/O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110428T1500Z/
DILLON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-HORRY SC-
1029 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR NORTHERN
HORRY...MARION...EAST CENTRAL FLORENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN DILLON
COUNTIES...

AT 1025 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RAINS...OR 9 MILES
SOUTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GALIVANTS
FERRY...AYNOR...GAPWAY...SMITHBORO...MULLINS...FORK...BAYBORO...
NICHOLS...KEMPER...LAKE VIEW...ALLSBROOK...GREEN SEA AND LORIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3387 7947 3411 7956 3437 7916 3405 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 241DEG 47KT 3408 7933

[Brick Tamland]

So we are done with the threat for severe weather today?

[Moose4]

My final thought for now is that James Spann deserves some type of award for his work yesterday. the death toll is horrific, but imagine what would have happened had this outbreak occured 20 years ago or so. Unthinkable.

Have at it.......

I'll second that. I'd never watched him before but I sat transfixed by the livestream for two hours. He and the staff at 33/40 did an amazing job all around.

Their webhost deserves a medal too. Almost 30,000 users at peak and the livestream never skipped a beat or even slowed down.

[Isopycnic]

So there is no more severe threat for the Carolinas and we are all in post storm analysis mode?

[NCStateMMY]

Between the team at WRAL in Raleigh doing their fantastic job on the 16th and James Spann's amazing work yesterday, their has been some outstanding meterological journalism this month.

[Lookout]

So we are done with the threat for severe weather today?

Not sure what your point is, obviously it can be discussed in this thread. I will edit the thread title if you like but we needed a new one and given the fact that there is at least a small break, it seems as good of a time as any.

[pazzo83]

Am I reading this right that the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado cut through FIVE states?

[kanc2001]

pretty nasty looking cells popping around cae.

[strongwxnc]

Really need to store the "just locked thread" for later. What great read it will be for years to come....

[WeatherNC]

Did not see this posted, from BMX. "Subject matter experts from around the country will be arriving today to assist with the surveys" is a strong indication this is going to be close, if not at the top end of the EF scale.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
808 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011

...UPDATED FOR JEFFERSON AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY SURVEYS...

IN REGARDS TO THE JEFFERSON AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY DAMAGE...SUBJECT
MATTER EXPERTS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY WILL BE ARRIVING TODAY TO
ASSIST WITH SURVEYS...AND DAMAGE RATINGS WILL BE PROVIDED AFTER A
THOROUGH ASSESSMENT IS CONDUCTED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS TODAY WILL BEGIN THE TASK OF
ASSESSING THE DAMAGE FROM A TRAGICALLY HISTORIC DAY OF TORNADIC
ACTIVITY AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THERE WERE TWO
WAVES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST MOVED THROUGH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SECOND WAVE
INVOLVED NUMEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND PRODUCED LONG LIVED...
STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH WIDESPREAD AND CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS.

AT THIS TIME...STORM SURVEYS ARE BEING PLANNED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

TEAM ONE: MARION COUNTY...THREE POSSIBLE TRACKS INCLUDING HACKLEBURG.
WALKER COUNTY...THREE POSSIBLE TRACKS INCLUDING CORDOVA.

TEAM TWO: BIBB COUNTY...TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS INCLUDING EOLINE.
SUMTER COUNTY...GIEGER.

TEAM THREE: TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...TUSCALOOSA.
JEFFERSON COUNTY...PLEASANT GROVE...PRATT CITY.

MEDIA INQUIRIES CAN BE DIRECTED TOWARD WARNING COORDINATION
METEOROLOGIST JOHN DE BLOCK AT 205-664-3010...OR METEOROLOGIST IN
CHARGE JIM STEFKOVICH AT 205-585-8635.

A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION TO THE SUCCESS OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
PROGRAM IS THE RECEIPT OF STORM REPORTS FROM ALL OUR CUSTOMERS AND
PARTNERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IF YOU WITNESSED OR ARE AWARE OF
ANY STORM DAMAGE DUE TO HIGH WINDS OR TORNADOES...PLEASE CONTACT
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...OR CALL OUR STORM REPORTING
HOTLINE AT 1-800-856-0758.

[Brick Tamland]

Not sure what your point is, obviously it can be discussed in this thread. I will edit the thread title if you like but we needed a new one and given the fact that there is at least a small break, it seems as good of a time as any.

I was a little confused, too. I think we still need a thread for discussing the threat in the Carolinas and VA.

[AshevilleDon]

Am I reading this right that the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado cut through FIVE states?

TWC said a few minutes ago that the supercell traveled over 300 miles & carried (Not actual Tornados) but, Tornado Warnings the whole way. MS,AL,GA,NC for sure. Maybe TN for the 5th.

[Lookout]

I was a little confused, too. I think we still need a thread for discussing the threat in the Carolinas and VA.

Edited,

I tell you what, after thinking about it you guys have a point. I'll reopen the other thread for the purpose of anyone wanting to discuss current severe weather for the eastern carolinas and this one will focus on the aftermath. This way at least the current warnings/discussion will remain in one place for anyone in the future coming back and looking at it.

[downeastnc]

Just had some thunder here and looking back west over central SC we might not be done here if that gets organized. Could get interesting if a few discrete supes fire and head this way, I could see this setup supporting a few weak tornados and it wont take much to mix down some 50-70 mph winds.

[MariettaWx]

I talked to my co-worker from Kingston, GA (Bartow County) Extreme damage with many fatalities according to him. Trees down and a subdivision leveled. Schools are canceled up there today.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

The death toll is just crazy per CNN over 200 people have lost their lives. Don't know if that is for yesterday's outbreak alone or the past three or so days as well. Death tolls like this just don't/shouldn't happen anymore. Yea people will get killed by tornadoes, but when your death toll goes over 100, based on technology today and how we can place accurate tornado warnings/watches well in advance, shows that something had to of gone wrong. Maybe this could have been a mix of, yea a tornado can't happen to me what are the odds, and then it does happen and they are caught off guard. One thing that stands out to me the most is that yesterday morning we had a powerful QLCS move through Alabama into western Georgia. Reports were that over 100,000 customers were without power, and I heard NOAA radio was down because of that storm. Was the power crew able to restore the power? I don't know, but if they were not able to do so, you have thousands of people that can't watch James Spann, their weather radio was down (if they even had one), they pretty had nothing except maybe a radio that runs on batteries and possible a lap-top. So how where these people able to get their warnings? They couldn't unless someone called them, or they new about it in advance and were prepared. Again don't know if this could be a reason why the death toll is so high, but something to look at.

[MariettaWx]

The amazing videos coming out from this are incredible. With the amount of HD cameras people have in this time is great from a scientific perspective. First the Tsunami and then the past two outbreaks have produced some unreal footage. Mother Nature sure seems pissed off this year.

[Brick Tamland]

I do think it is amazing that over 200 people were killed in this day and age. I guess power outages could have something to do with it, but I also think most people are just passive about the weather and really don't pay attention to it like they should when these events happen. Plus, the tornado that hit Alabama was so powerful. It was a monster and stayed on the ground forever. I think we just saw something very rare, just like we did on 4/16 in NC. And people in the south don't have storm shelters like people in the midwest do. You just have to hunker down wherever you are. So, I think it is a combination of things that led to so many people getting killed, especially in Alabama. Still, I think it would be wise if more people took severe weather seriously and paid attention to what is going on. It seems like these types of events, along with the earthquakes and tsunamis, are happening more and more.

[Bozart]

Just had some thunder here and looking back west over central SC we might not be done here if that gets organized. Could get interesting if a few discrete supes fire and head this way, I could see this setup supporting a few weak tornados and it wont take much to mix down some 50-70 mph winds.

Already had a 50 mph gust here in Fountain 15 minutes ago, not related to convection. Once this patch of stratified rain gets out of here, watch out for insolation and re-development this afternoon.

[downeastnc]

I do think it is amazing that over 200 people were killed in this day and age. I guess power outages could have something to do with it, but I also think most people are just passive about the weather and really don't pay attention to it like they should when these events happen. Plus, the tornado that hit Alabama was so powerful. It was a monster and stayed on the ground forever. I think we just saw something very rare, just like we did on 4/16 in NC. And people in the south don't have storm shelters like people in the midwest do. You just have to hunker down wherever you are. So, I think it is a combination of things that led to so many people getting killed, especially in Alabama. Still, I think it would be wise if more people took severe weather seriously and paid attention to what is going on. It seems like these types of events, along with the earthquakes and tsunamis, are happening more and more.

Really most tornados are weak ( well as far as tornados go anyways) and are survivable in most cases even in less than stellar structures. The problem with yesterday is you had a EF4-5 that is able to kill everything above the surface hitting areas were there arent places underground to go. EF4-5 are so rare and when they do happen they almost never hit large populations...when they do however they are gonna kill a lot of people. As bad as it was yesterday if that same tornado had crossed the heart of the Atlanta or Charlotte metro area the death toll would be even worse. Heck if that same storm had been 2-3 miles further south when it hit Birmingham

I think everyone knew it was coming, iand everyone did everything they were suppose to do but when the tornado is capable of destroying the entire house there is nothing more you can do. Most of these people died huddled in closest or bathrooms hoping the tornado misses them.

[Moose4]

I'm curious how the professionals on the forum feel about getting caught up in something like this. I mean, you realize you're looking at something that's probably a once in a lifetime (or close to it) occurrence, and the science of it must be incredibly exciting, and yet that's balanced with the realization that this awesome show of nature is going to kill people and destroy lives, and it's your job (if you're in the NWS or media) to try and mitigate that by getting the word out.

Sorry if I'm being weenish by asking that.

[Brick Tamland]

Really most tornados are weak ( well as far as tornados go anyways) and are survivable in most cases even in less than stellar structures. The problem with yesterday is you had a EF4-5 that is able to kill everything above the surface hitting areas were there arent places underground to go. EF4-5 are so rare and when they do happen they almost never hit large populations...when they do however they are gonna kill a lot of people. As bad as it was yesterday if that same tornado had crossed the heart of the Atlanta or Charlotte metro area the death toll would be even worse. Heck if that same storm had been 2-3 miles further south when it hit Birmingham

I think everyone knew it was coming, iand everyone did everything they were suppose to do but when the tornado is capable of destroying the entire house there is nothing more you can do. Most of these people died huddled in closest or bathrooms hoping the tornado misses them.

True, but you still have those people calling the local news channel complaining about them not showing their game or American Idol.

[downeastnc]

Already had a 50 mph gust here in Fountain 15 minutes ago, not related to convection. Once this patch of stratified rain gets out of here, watch out for insolation and re-development this afternoon.

The storms west of Fayetteville look promising if they hold up, not very tornadic looking but EHI really jumps up east of 95 I suspect any tornadic cells will be NE of us up towards the tidewater. The supercell composite has jumped quite a bit over the last hour so maybe by 1-2 this afternoon things will go boom.

[downeastnc]

True, but you still have those people calling the local news channel complaining about them not showing their game or American Idol.

Yeah thats kinda dumb but most people have a it cant happen to me POV until it actually hits them or someone they know. Also the Atl Fox station not preempting Idol to cover a DEADLY tornado in their viewing area is friggen insane.

[Lookout]

I'd like to start a post storm outbreak analysis thread here.......Please post meterological analysis, videos, past outbreak comparisons etc. of this absolutely historic outbreak. After spending close to 10 hours following this, I'm exhausted as I'm sure a lot of members on here are. I would love to see some comparisons to past outbreaks in the SE (or the plains) for that matter....but this will most definately surpass the Palm Sunday 1994 and April 8, 1998 outbreaks in just about every parameter.

My final thought for now is that James Spann deserves some type of award for his work yesterday. the death toll is horrific, but imagine what would have happened had this outbreak occured 20 years ago or so. Unthinkable.

Have at it.......

Yeah he was an absolute warrior yesterday and last night. The guy never took a break that I know of and was literally on his feet for 10 or 12 hours covering this thing. I wish we had him in atlanta.

What I don't wish for though is more garbage like channel 5 pulled last night, refusing to break away from american idol while ken kook himself was reporting a potentially mile wide tornado moving toward rome. I desperately urge everyone to go to their site to complain and get anyone else they can too. I know I am because I was so disgusted and angered by this (and still am)that it wouldn't serve me well to see whoever the hell was responsible. For them to stick with a meaningless pile of crap like idol while people were in serious danger, property was being destroyed, and it was heading toward a major metro area in their viewing area is beyond vile, disgusting, and irresponsible.

www.myfoxatlanta.com

[DixieBlizzard]

Shout out to James Spann from me as well. There is no telling how many lives he has saved with his broadcasts of severe weather events through the years but yesterday's coverage was second to none. Birmingham is lucky to have him!

[Lookout]

True, but you still have those people calling the local news channel complaining about them not showing their game or American Idol.

Yeah and those people can suck it as far as I'm concerned. People's lives > tv geared toward the lowest common denominator X 1000. Especially when said channel claims to be the authority in weather coverage. See above post.

[Bevo]

I do think it is amazing that over 200 people were killed in this day and age. I guess power outages could have something to do with it, but I also think most people are just passive about the weather and really don't pay attention to it like they should when these events happen. Plus, the tornado that hit Alabama was so powerful. It was a monster and stayed on the ground forever. I think we just saw something very rare, just like we did on 4/16 in NC. And people in the south don't have storm shelters like people in the midwest do. You just have to hunker down wherever you are. So, I think it is a combination of things that led to so many people getting killed, especially in Alabama. Still, I think it would be wise if more people took severe weather seriously and paid attention to what is going on. It seems like these types of events, along with the earthquakes and tsunamis, are happening more and more.

That's what I've been pondering. To me, one of the biggest "post analysis" areas needs to be focused on "Why?". I wish there was a way to see a census of sorts regarding the casualties.

Follow me for a moment:

It's one thing to have high casualty numbers when these things come through at night. But this was literally watched by millions as it traveled in *uncannily clear* mid-level daylight. I want to presume that most of the fatalities (particularly in GA and eastern AL) were due to structures giving way while people were in fact taking shelter, or other ways which would have been simply unavoidable. But how many casulaties in Tuscaloosa, for example, were people rushing to capture the best footage for Youtube (or like I used to be - an invincible college student believing nothing would happen to me)? I'll probably never know, but I'm curious. As we watched it barrel across AL, there was no legitimate reason to not have a plan if you lived in eastern AL, GA, TN, SC or NC. I understand that it's impossible for things to work perfectly in these situations, but with the exposure and warnings and people calling people, etc - why are those casualty numbers still so high?

I guess my real question would be - how many of these injuries/fatalities could have been avoided had people sheltered themselves properly, etc. ? With everything we had available yesterday, information was unprecedented. It didn't sneak up on most of the area it covered.

How can we better educate our people to understand the danger (even if it's not perceived as immediate) of these situations and the importance of executing a solid plan?

[ATL_Militarypolice]

From James Spann:

My long time associate and ABC 33/40 Chief Photographer Bill Castle just landed from flying the track of the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado. He has seen it all over the years, and just told me this looked much worse that the April 8, 1998 EF-5 along the path. The tornado never lifted along the path he flew from Tuscaloosa to Fultondale. Site built homes totally off the foundation, massive timber damage in East Tuscaloosa County. No doubt in his mind this will be rather EF-4 or EF-5. And, remember, the track actually started in Mississippi and continued into Georgia after causing more severe damage in Northeast Alabama near Piedmont.

[SluggerWx]

http://www.myfoxatla...-20110427-am-sd

Cartersville aerial shots show me (and my very amateur analysis) at least EF-4 damage.

All you can see are completely clean slabs in some of the shots...

Attached Files

•  cartersville aerial.JPG   29.01K   1 downloads

[sojitodd]

That's what I've been pondering. To me, one of the biggest "post analysis" areas needs to be focused on "Why?". I wish there was a way to see a census of sorts regarding the casualties.

Follow me for a moment:

It's one thing to have high casualty numbers when these things come through at night. But this was literally watched by millions as it traveled in *uncannily clear* mid-level daylight. I want to presume that most of the fatalities (particularly in GA and eastern AL) were due to structures giving way while people were in fact taking shelter, or other ways which would have been simply unavoidable. But how many casulaties in Tuscaloosa, for example, were people rushing to capture the best footage for Youtube (or like I used to be - an invincible college student believing nothing would happen to me)? I'll probably never know, but I'm curious. As we watched it barrel across AL, there was no legitimate reason to not have a plan if you lived in eastern AL, GA, TN, SC or NC. I understand that it's impossible for things to work perfectly in these situations, but with the exposure and warnings and people calling people, etc - why are those casualty numbers still so high?

I guess my real question would be - how many of these injuries/fatalities could have been avoided had people sheltered themselves properly, etc. ? With everything we had available yesterday, information was unprecedented. It didn't sneak up on most of the area it covered.

How can we better educate our people to understand the danger (even if it's not perceived as immediate) of these situations and the importance of executing a solid plan?

I actually remember seeing just such a 'census' done after the 1998 Birmingham area tornado. They went through the different areas hit, interviewed survivors, those who knew the dead or of the circumstances, etc. It was very well done. I think it was by some medical association or something because they wanted to know why people were killed and detailed info about the trauma(head injuries, chest injuries, etc)



What they found in that study is that most of the people who died were in structures that became 'airborne' or they were outside and became airborne. What they described that as being, was in a building where the floor that the people were on lifted into the air-either in a mobile home that was picked up, on the second story of a home that was swept away(not many two story homes though) or single story homes that were smaller and were elevated on foundations, often to make them even leveled because they were on hillsides, so they had raised weak foundation walls(often concrete block) that allowed the home to be actually picked up and then destroyed. This also happened in homes that were just slightly elevated on foundations but were weakly attached to it-so the house could be lifted up as well as suffering from all of the other things that can damage a home in a tornado.

They also found most of the deaths involved severe head, neck, or chest injuries, as is to be expected. Also many of the people killed were not paying attention to the weather and did not have time to flee weak structures-people with more warning often left vulnerable buildings for something stronger.

Just thought I would mention this since you mentioned a 'census' and I remembered this.

*edit-so I did not remember some of it correctly, but here is the survey: http://www.colorado....r116/qr116.html

[lilj4425]

231 dead according to CNN. Literally makes me sick to my stomach. Praying for all those affected.

[WxKnurd]

231 dead according to CNN. Literally makes me sick to my stomach. Praying for all those affected.

Yea, my worst fears are being realized, this may come close to topping the '74 outbreak for number of FAT.