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Pattern Changing: Early December threats?


ORH_wxman

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Well rat's bit .... this run loads up some seriously dangerous deadly cold on our side of the polar field domain with ...some kind of an exotic -EPO+PNA hybrid ridge threatening to grab hold and make everyone on this board sorry they wished it on...

Whether we get there or not by D10 I will say that I like the overall appeal through D7 on this much better than the GFS. This run offers more transient stay with deep layer s/w elements, and that is a better fit in going along with those discussion topics earlier in this excruciatingly long thread.

But yes ...over all you winter weather enthusiast can whip out the hand cream and a most towel over this run.

lol

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it's nearly identical given the time range.

Yeah, you can't ask for a better look this far out from the ensembles. It's early, but I'm pleased for now. It also has a chunk of cold in Canada on this run. I'm trying to figure out what caused it, but it looks like the ridging along the north slope of AK is stronger, and the PV across north central Canada is further south. It's also fighting the -pna signal with ridging in the southwest. NAO weakened a little, but it's probably noise at this point, considering the run to run differences.

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Anybody else just watching the 18z GFS roll in? How convoluted a setup....

Can't wait to see these 2 phase.

Yea the GFS still looks confused. It wants to magically merge the 500 low coming in from the midwest with the retrograding Atlantic low. I think the ECM has a much better handle on this with a slightly more progressive solution and keeps the features separate.

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Yea the GFS still looks confused. It wants to magically merge the 500 low coming in from the midwest with the retrograding Atlantic low. I think the ECM has a much better handle on this with a slightly more progressive solution and keeps the features separate.

The ECM correct with its more mundane depiction....that would be a first.

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The ECM correct with its more mundane depiction....that would be a first.

Yeah and it's not even that mundane. Pretty close to quite the storm for us. I think the op run offers a solution that seems to make the most sense, but that doesn't mean the other solutions offered cannot happen. I don't think anybody would turn down a Delmarva Developer, the the euro implies.

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Yeah and it's not even that mundane. Pretty close to quite the storm for us. I think the op run offers a solution that seems to make the most sense, but that doesn't mean the other solutions offered cannot happen. I don't think anybody would turn down a Delmarva Developer, the the euro implies.

Nice 1,000th post, that didn't take long, wow.

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Yeah and it's not even that mundane. Pretty close to quite the storm for us. I think the op run offers a solution that seems to make the most sense, but that doesn't mean the other solutions offered cannot happen. I don't think anybody would turn down a Delmarva Developer, the the euro implies.

yeah certainly better than a low running up into lake huron.

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