donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 are you on board that winter is over 40 South? There will be some winter opportunities, but New England/Great Lakes areas will have far more numerous chances and more noticeable cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Don, it's Ji. He "is strong like bull", no need to beat around the bush he can take it. Ji, buddy, it's over for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Thanks for the frequent updates Don. I still tend to believe the blowtorch will remain mostly on hold during the thaw, but 50s are probably likely at some point or another (talking Mason Dixon line on north-centric). I also am still holding onto the -NAO/AO developing and aiding in keeping the warmth in check. GFS/GEFS is at least lending some support to that idea. I wrote down some long range thoughts in an article today that I think goes along well with the general ideas in this thread. Longer Range Temperatures should begin to moderate this weekend following the cold wave, and by next week, we may actually be experiencing an appreciable thaw featuring several days like today and this recent Sunday. Most winters feature one or several of these extended warm breaks, but not this winter so far. The best time period for this thaw would be from about Valentine's Day through the 20th, though I can't say for sure how warm it could get and how further past the 20th the thaw could extend. All the while, we will be watching for the North Atlantic/Arctic weather patterns featured earlier this winter(largely responsible for the cold/snow) to possibly return for the end of February and into March. Already we see some long range guidance picking up on this potential beginning to take place mid-month. Though it wouldn't mean cold weather for us immediately, this weather pattern could possibly limit the strength of the warmth during the 14th-20th in this part of the country. Eventually I do believe it would also get us back to a cold wintry regime to close out the already historic winter of 2010-2011. We shall see. Continue reading on Examiner.com: Snow threats this week on life support including tonight's event, Cold returns - Newark Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/snow-threats-this-week-on-life-support-including-tonight-s-event-cold-returns#ixzz1DIpe4jkR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Thanks for the frequent updates Don. I still tend to believe the blowtorch will remain mostly on hold during the thaw, but 50s are probably likely at some point or another (talking Mason Dixon line on north-centric). I also am still holding onto the -NAO/AO developing and aiding in keeping the warmth in check. GFS/GEFS is at least lending some support to that idea. I wrote down some long range thoughts in an article today that I think goes along well with the general ideas in this thread. Longer Range Temperatures should begin to moderate this weekend following the cold wave, and by next week, we may actually be experiencing an appreciable thaw featuring several days like today and this recent Sunday. Most winters feature one or several of these extended warm breaks, but not this winter so far. The best time period for this thaw would be from about Valentine's Day through the 20th, though I can't say for sure how warm it could get and how further past the 20th the thaw could extend. All the while, we will be watching for the North Atlantic/Arctic weather patterns featured earlier this winter(largely responsible for the cold/snow) to possibly return for the end of February and into March. Already we see some long range guidance picking up on this potential beginning to take place mid-month. Though it wouldn't mean cold weather for us immediately, this weather pattern could possibly limit the strength of the warmth during the 14th-20th in this part of the country. Eventually I do believe it would also get us back to a cold wintry regime to close out the already historic winter of 2010-2011. We shall see. Continue reading on Examiner.com: Snow threats this week on life support including tonight's event, Cold returns - Newark Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....s#ixzz1DIpe4jkR What are your thoughts with regard to places north of 42N. The GFS is hinting at a brief mild intrusion around the 17th-18th, but other than that seems to keep us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Is it just me or the 0z GFS looking a lot colder for next weekend in NNY, SE Canada? -21C isotherm entering the region around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 From an Aussie perspective La Nina keeps on keeping on (floods and cyclones on the eastern seaboard... 70plus houses lost to fires in the west as the drought continues... typical la nina). However for the next week Yasi has stripped a large portion of the Coral Sea of heat. SST down 2 to three degrees Celsius. MJO is over in the Indian ocean and unlikely to move too fast toward us... but move back into the Coral Sea it will.... what is scary is our season has only just started and we have had three TCs cross the Queensland coast since xmas.... very rare if not unheard of this early . That gives us Aussies who live in Queensland a much needed break from floods and TCs for a few weeks at least... I hope. Hopefully, the areas impacted by Yasi and also the floods in the vicinity of Brisbane are recovering, even as it will take time. As you noted, Queensland has seen an unusually high number of tropical cyclones to date. In contrast, the 2007-08 La Niña was a relatively quiet affair. Hopefully, a shift in the pattern will lead to fewer TC threats over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, TC threats are highest during La Niñas. For those who are interested, the BOM has a great map that shows the average number of TCs during all years, El Niños, La Niñas, and Neutral ENSO cases at: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/tropical-cyclones/index.jsp? It should be noted that the data set from which the maps have been constructed extends from 1969-70 through 2005-06. It would be interesting to see how Australia fared during some of the La Niñas of the 1950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hopefully this is it for the Deep South...amazing stretch for winter weather in areas that don't see it too often and much less a week apart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wizard Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hopefully this is it for the Deep South...amazing stretch for winter weather in areas that don't see it too often and much less a week apart... I think your suffering and mine might be over VERY soon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think your suffering and mine might be over VERY soon now. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Southern Plains snow cover will soon be a distant memory... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 548 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1229 PM FREEZING RAIN RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W 02/09/2011 U0.00 INCH FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR GLAZE ON VEHICLES AND TREES. 1233 PM FREEZING RAIN TOMBALL 30.10N 95.62W 02/09/2011 U0.00 INCH HARRIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR GLAZE ON VEHICLES AT BARKER CYPRESS AND WEST ROAD. 1235 PM SLEET ADDICKS 29.78N 95.64W 02/09/2011 U0.00 INCH HARRIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR AT I-10 AND HIGHWAY 6 0115 PM FREEZING RAIN JERSEY VILLAGE 29.89N 95.57W 02/09/2011 E0.12 INCH HARRIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR GLAZE ON VEHICLES AT STATE HIGHWAY 6 AND US 290. 0121 PM FREEZING RAIN BROOKSHIRE 29.78N 95.95W 02/09/2011 U0.00 INCH WALLER TX EMERGENCY MNGR ICING REPORTED ON MANY BRIDGES ACROSS WALLER COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Impressive SE TX cold spell... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1021 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011 ...FEBRUARY BEGINS ON A FRIGID NOTE... ...FEBRUARY 2011 LOW TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IS THE COLDEST ON RECORD... FEBRUARY 2011 HAS BEGUN ON A RATHER FRIGID NOTE. AT HOUSTON... NINE OF THE FIRST TEN MORNINGS FELL BELOW FREEZING. SEVEN OF THE FIRST TEN MORNINGS WERE BELOW FREEZING AT HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AND AT COLLEGE STATION. THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST NINE DAYS OF FEBRUARY ARE EITHER THE THIRD OR FOURTH COLDEST START TO FEBRUARY IN RECORDED HISTORY. THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE OVER THE FIRST NINE DAYS OF THE MONTH WERE THE COLDEST ON RECORD FOR ALL FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE THE ICY DETAILS: DATA - FEBRUARY 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 9 HOUSTON AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 44.7 1895 27.0 2011 37.6 1895 45.1 1905 30.6 1985 38.2 1985 45.8 1985 30.6 1895 39.5 2011 47.4 1978 33.2 1972 39.9 1905 49.6 1982 34.4 1978 40.9 1978 8TH 52.0 2011 HOUSTON HOBBY AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 47.2 1978 30.3 2011 41.5 1985 47.8 1985 33.8 1951 41.5 1978 49.7 1982 34.7 1947 41.7 2011 50.1 1989 35.2 1985 43.2 1989 51.9 1979 35.8 1978 43.5 1982 6TH 53.0 2011 COLLEGE STATION AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 43.1 1905 26.6 2011 37.1 1985 44.4 1978 26.7 1951 37.3 1989 45.0 1985 28.6 1989 39.3 1978 46.0 1989 29.2 1985 39.6 2011 46.8 1979 29.6 1905 40.6 1979 7TH 52.6 2011 GALVESTON AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG DAILY 44.2 1985 33.1 2011 39.8 1985 45.0 1895 35.4 1985 40.2 1895 45.9 1905 35.4 1895 41.4 1905 46.7 1978 36.9 1905 41.5 2011 49.7 1989 38.8 1978 42.7 1978 6TH 49.9 2011 BELOW IS ANOTHER TABLE WITH DATA FOR THE MOST DAYS BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY: HOUSTON HOU HOBBY GALVESTON 12 - 1895 7 - 2011 9 - 1895 9 - 2011 6 - 1989 6 - 2011 9 - 1978 6 - 1951 5 - 1899 8 - 1989 5 - 1960 4 - 1905 7 - 1905 4 - 1996 4 - 1989 7 - 1899 RELIEF FROM THE COLD IS ON THE WAY. A FEW MORE COLD MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED AND THEN A WARM UP BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL FINALLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Probably time to unpin this until we get a new update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Probably time to unpin this until we get a new update The thaw is now imminent. As for the possible return of blocking, there remains a lot of uncertainty. Although the AO is forecast to go negative, though possibly briefly, just after mid-February, what happens afterward will be more important. The following are the ensemble forecasts issued 2/7-11/2011: One day is missing, as CPC never updated the ensemble forecast for that day. The same applies with respect to today. The most recent CPC forecast is for 2/11. I'm not sure why the ensemble forecasts have missed updates on two recent occasions. The lack of CPC updates notwithstanding, the GFS ensembles are hinting at a gradual demise of the Eastern ridging toward the end of their range: If the ensembles are correct, the now imminent thaw will probably last 7-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 The lack of CPC updates notwithstanding, the GFS ensembles are hinting at a gradual demise of the Eastern ridging toward the end of their range: If the ensembles are correct, the now imminent thaw will probably last 7-14 days. If that map is correct, the surface will be a lot warmer than 500mb. In a raging Pacific Jet pattern the entire eastern 1/2 of the US is very warm because of a strong low level flow across the country. I'll go with a longer timeline on the thaw. Winter may be over south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 That Aleutians ridge is a killer and a consistent feature throughout the gfs ensemble runs. It isn't extending up into the north pole either like it was through much of December. Definitely looking like Nina has taken over finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 That Aleutians ridge is a killer and a consistent feature throughout the gfs ensemble runs. It isn't extending up into the north pole either like it was through much of December. Definitely looking like Nina has taken over finally. I agree. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 That Aleutians ridge is a killer and a consistent feature throughout the gfs ensemble runs. It isn't extending up into the north pole either like it was through much of December. Definitely looking like Nina has taken over finally. it was a helluva 2 year run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 FWIW, the objective analogs show the trough returning to the East during the first week in March. The following are animated 500 mb height anomaly images centered around the 3/3-3/6 timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenewbigmack Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 FWIW, the objective analogs show the trough returning to the East during the first week in March. The following are animated 500 mb height anomaly images centered around the 3/3-3/6 timeframe: Don, when you say "objective analogs", what are you referring to? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Don, is the projected cooldown for next weekend just a temporary thing like Tuesday will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Don, when you say "objective analogs", what are you referring to? Thanks The analog dates generated by the GFS ensembles. The Canadian ensembles also generate such analogs. In most cases, the analog dates are remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Don, is the projected cooldown for next weekend just a temporary thing like Tuesday will be? Probably temporary. The following week could feature the start of a longer-duration period of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Probably temporary. The following week could feature the start of a longer-duration period of cold. Thanks, that was what I was thinking also. The models typically try to flip patterns too quickly, so sometime during the first week of March sounds more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 March 1993 part duex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 just a few, but looking better than a few days ago where all the members showed no sign of tanking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 also, is this a sign of a trending -AO at 200mb? My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hopefully Don can give us some insight into his thoughts for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hopefully Don can give us some insight into his thoughts for March this is what i'm anxiously waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hopefully Don can give us some insight into his thoughts for March I will, a little later this week. I was out of town and haven't had much chance to put together my thoughts for the upcoming month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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