Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the Gfs is going to cave...it will be at 12z. If it dosent...it will most likelly score a coup Hate to say it but im pulling for it now despite awful track for dc and less upside than the other models. 6z gives dc7-9 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the Gfs is going to cave...it will be at 12z. If it dosent...it will most likelly score a coup Hate to say it but im pulling for it now despite awful track for dc and less upside than the other models. 6z gives dc7-9 inches lol i hope you guys get nailed down there. The winter your having in your area sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the Gfs is going to cave...it will be at 12z. If it dosent...it will most likelly score a coup Hate to say it but im pulling for it now despite awful track for dc and less upside than the other models. 6z gives dc7-9 inches lol I agree it has to be one of the next 2 runs...its hard to imagine the GFS would be THAT wrong at 84-90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree it has to be one of the next 2 runs...its hard to imagine the GFS would be THAT wrong at 84-90 hours. Exactly... Gfs dosent usually make dramatic changes under 84 but neither does the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Exactly... Gfs dosent usually make dramatic changes under 84 but neither does the euro lol i wouldn't expect most models under 84 hrs to be that vastly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 alot of philly weenies would love the 6z gfs. too bad there still tucked in their bunk beds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 alot of philly weenies would love the 6z gfs. too bad there still tucked in their bunk beds. i think most philly weenies believe its BS, just fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god... Any guesses as to who that is folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god... Any guesses as to who that is folks? VERY OBV to me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god... Any guesses as to who that is folks? funny thing i can just hear his voice saying that to from radio shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 any more runs coming up before 12z nam? id like to get an hr of sleep in tonite lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 here are the gfs indiv ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 any more runs coming up before 12z nam? id like to get an hr of sleep in tonite lol.... The 9.5z cras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 9.5z cras ur a funny guy....guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heres the total qpf for the indiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 alright im heading to bed now, probably won't be up for the 12z runs. So if everything caves to the euro thankfully i wont be around to see the explosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Amazing shift on the euro ensembles from yesterday's 12Z to the 0Z run.....big nod to the GFS and its ensembles....This translates as a big, big snow event, yet again....bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The CIPS analog snow events sure favor the GEM track....12/21/93 is a very similar setup. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 The CIPS analog snow events sure favor the GEM track....12/21/93 is a very similar setup. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new Are the CIPS analogs in any way reliable, though, since the GFS is off on its own right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Are the CIPS analogs in any way reliable, though, since the GFS is off on its own right now? They could be somewhat useful since they take what the GFS shows at 96 hours and then show 15 cases of what ultimately occurred in similar patterns...none really indicate any coastal snow event and many an interior one, and generally a well interior one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Exactly... Gfs dosent usually make dramatic changes under 84 but neither does the euro lol Except 12/26/10. However, I get your point. Just highlighting how both caved in the final hours as recently as a month ago on a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Latest Wxsim based off of the 6z runs Has a SECS for the Philly burbs with timing etc as follows Snow starts toward midnight Monday temp 15.7 Periods of moderate snow from 230am thru mid afternoon Tuesday then Heavy Snow into the evening. Snow winds down by midnight with a general 8 to 10" across the area Current Snowcover 7.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Since the GFS upgrade, I have noticed on several occasions that the GFS has not amplified some troughs enough in the East.As we approached the time of the storm, it had to play catch up with the Euro. It is a question now of which model will cave. It is my opinion that it will be the Euro. Why? For the next few days it will be unusually cold here in the N.E. The pattern has been progressive recently. Monday A.M. is forcasted to be around 10 degrees or less. Short time to moves temps. Belief here is more snow than rain........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 9z SREF trended toward GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 9z SREF trended toward GFS Majorly. And a lot of members are leaning more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nam has initialized.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I haven't seen the 9z SREF members yet, but just going by the standard deviations at H5, there are two distinct clusters of solutions - one GFS-like and one Euro-like. I don't think that it really helps clarify the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I was just reading the overnight stuff and I enjoyed your analysis of the Euro. I agree with you. Even though the Euro depicts a very warm situation, I have to believe that the Euro is a little too warm and with that track areas just NW of NYC would likely be snow. The Euro was much too warm with the last storm we just had. If you looked at its temperatures especially at the surface, you would have thought it would have been like 36 degrees here the whole day. Instead it was 31 with freezing rain. I understand exactly what the mets said and of course, taken verbatim, the model is showing rain, but I think what many of us non mets do is look for what we think will happen based upon what the model is depicting. Talk about a forgotten storm...*nobody* ever mentions that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I was just reading the overnight stuff and I enjoyed your analysis of the Euro. I agree with you. Even though the Euro depicts a very warm situation, I have to believe that the Euro is a little too warm and with that track areas just NW of NYC would likely be snow. The Euro was much too warm with the last storm we just had. If you looked at its temperatures especially at the surface, you would have thought it would have been like 36 degrees here the whole day. Instead it was 31 with freezing rain. I understand exactly what the mets said and of course, taken verbatim, the model is showing rain, but I think what many of us non mets do is look for what we think will happen based upon what the model is depicting. Surpisingly cold out there. Single digits in W Essex, W Union, Bergen, Passaic, Somerset, W Middlesex, O or below NW Morris, Warren, Sussex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, got down to 4.2 degrees this morning here. Surpisingly cold out there. Single digits in W Essex, W Union, Bergen, Passaic, Somerset, W Middlesex, O or below NW Morris, Warren, Sussex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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