baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Baro, looks like the gulf is open for business on the 18z nam at least The flow is off the GOM--but it isn't very moistened yet. A good indicator is the 925 theta-e values. That said--the 18Z NAM has a general good look to its upper height field--would like it to cut off even more though and perhaps be a tad less elongated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 he seems to describe several western solutions and then at the end says overall the ensembles are east of the op??? Also the part where he says some are as far east as sw VA, (im thinking he might have meant west). He fails to mention that they did shift west vs the 00z runs. Yes the mean is a hair east of the OP but more importantly was the shift west and by a bit with a couple of the members. Give me a few and i'll post the comparison between 00z run vs 12z. Don't wanna do it yet out of respect for customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We just had 3.5" yesterday. Biggest snow of the year. I am heading to Michigan tomorrow - hope to see a lot of snow up there. Depends where in Michigan, but generally you will not see more then 6" state-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just a reminder of the crazy spread and extreme difficulty the models will have simulating these large upper tropospheric energetic waves as they break off the Pacific Jet. This is more challenging than large cyclones alone migrating across the Pacific. The spread at 96 hours is pretty amazing. what i also dont like here is the rebuilding of the neg NAO.....its east, but its building westward. ive been following this trend and you can see on most successive model runs its getting stronger and stronger.......several more cycles like this and we will have a piece of it poking into Greenland.... then, resultant upstream implications, no height field amplification sufficient in the east, bingo bango game over for the eastern lakes yeah, im paranoid of greenland....true. its too close to me, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 He fails to mention that they did shift west vs the 00z runs. Yes the mean is a hair east of the OP but more importantly was the shift west and by a bit with a couple of the members. Give me a few and i'll post the comparison between 00z run vs 12z. Don't wanna do it yet out of respect for customers. so it sounds like there's almost a separate camp setting up, (one west of the apps)....and the other clustered further east like the op (but with more in that camp) Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so it sounds like there's almost a separate camp setting up, (one west of the apps)....and the other clustered further east like the op (but with more in that camp) Is that correct? Was only a couple that ended up west of the apps. Keep in mind there is 50+ members. Majority were a inland track though. However last nights 00z run had the majority just off the coast at that point. Thus the noted shift in the ensembles. Thing is KEEPING that trend going. Ofcourse i want a lil more then you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And the reason why that is is because of HOW LATE the phase happens. The northern energy arrives to late/too far north/weak. However if that ( northern energy ) is able to dig/slow down some then boom guess what happens? yes we have bomb further west and probably west of the apps too. NOT saying that happens ( even though the seasonal trends with the northern stream say it is more possible ) but it is on the table. GFS has the northern stuff to make it happen but ala is missing the southern energy to go boom. remember i said IF. Not arguing that will happen. Just pointing out why it *could* happen. BTW. A number of the euro ensembles are further west vs 00z run. Even a few now that end up near lake Huron where as 00z run had none west of apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Was only a couple that ended up west of the apps. Keep in mind there is 50+ members. Majority were a inland track though. However last nights 00z run had the majority just off the coast at that point. Thus the noted shift in the ensembles. Thing is KEEPING that trend going. Ofcourse i want a lil more then you do. gotcha thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks like a winter storm watch issued for eastern nebraska, calling for 4-7 inches (calling for 6 inches here) but seems a bit much, i would only go with 4 inches as we always get the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 scanning thru a few afds in our area and none seem to give any thought to the possibility of a further west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 scanning thru a few afds in our area and none seem to give any thought to the possibility of a further west track. Iln .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE STORM TAKES A TRACK FURTHER INLAND...THEN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Not eliminating it either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18gfs is east with the qpf for nebraska/iowa with the nam west oh well, ill wait until 12z runs tomorrow to panic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hour 36 of the 18z GFS shows the circle (or U) pattern we have been in. One storm comes down, moves east and intensifies near or off the coast and it goes NW. Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DGEX looks like it'll head off the coast, although it manages to at least send a few tenths of an inch of QPF up my way. It's actually really weird. It crushes CPA/CNY but then collapses the storm off the MA coast mostly missing SNE. I think Rochester, NY does better than Boston, MA. This is a track I think you'd see with some extreme blocking downstream but otherwise looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 DGEX looks like it'll head off the coast, although it manages to at least send a few tenths of an inch of QPF up my way. It's actually really weird. It crushes CPA/CNY but then collapses the storm off the MA coast mostly missing SNE. I think Rochester, NY does better than Boston, MA. This is a track I think you'd see with some extreme blocking downstream but otherwise looks odd. The DGEX is awful--that solution doesn't even look realistic the way it just magically heads OTS after sitting there on the coast given the height field and its configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The DGEX is awful--that solution doesn't even look realistic the way it just magically heads OTS after sitting there on the coast given the height field and its configuration. Yeah, I mentioned it just for the lols. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still means nothing up this way... GFS showing piddly QPF over the GL out to 10 days.... Cold and dry until spring, apparently. Highest QPF I could see out to 240hrs was between .03 and .04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS trended towards nam. LSX, and some other mets in STL think we are going to see something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still means nothing up this way... GFS showing piddly QPF over the GL out to 10 days.... Cold and dry until spring, apparently. Highest QPF I could see out to 240hrs was between .03 and .04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS Not even close to being inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS Not even close to being inland. gfs doesn't want to dig the trough very far south.....so it comes up with a miller b-ish scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS Not even close to being inland. Thats because it is all northern energy. No low ever gets going down south. Basically have instead a weak low traveling along i70 which pops off Hatteras and goes out to sea. Nails DC/Philly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at least one of these solutions will fail miserably....and probably both. Amazing diff at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thats because it is all northern energy. No low ever gets going down south. Basically have instead a weak low traveling along i70 which pops off Hatteras and goes out to sea. Nails DC/Philly though. yup miller B. but even the northern low is weak piece of crap. It would probably end up screwing DC and developing too late in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at least one of these solutions will fail miserably....and probably both. Amazing diff at 84 ANY other time if someone showed me that GFS map i would be excited as hell. Instead it ends up being a kick to the ball's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yup miller B. but even the northern low is weak piece of crap. It would probably end up screwing DC and developing too late in reality. Yep and thinking about it it has more of a clipper look/track to it if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs doesn't want to dig the trough very far south.....so it comes up with a miller b-ish scenario This might actually be a better scenario for me...sort of like what yesterday's 12z Euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ANY other time if someone showed me that GFS map i would be excited as hell. Instead it ends up being a kick to the ball's. on most of the models around 84-96 have a look that would make me excited as well. Very sharp trough digging deep with a slightly pos tilt. Then the damn thing just moves east without ever going neg. DGEX is a perfect example. Whatever needs to happen to get that trough to back neg just isn't there. I can't figure out why unless it's that additional piece of energy showing up on the back side of the trough...or....something going on in the north atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This might actually be a better scenario for me...sort of like what yesterday's 12z Euro was showing. Oh yeah it would be better for a number of us out this way especially if it comes in with more juice. Thinking about it more it is a clipper but a decent one that just happens to lack decent moisture at *this* point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 on most of the models around 84-96 have a look that would make me excited as well. Very sharp trough digging deep with a slightly pos tilt. Then the damn thing just moves east without ever going neg. DGEX is a perfect example. Whatever needs to happen to get that trough to back neg just isn't there. I can't figure out why unless it's that additional piece of energy showing up on the back side of the trough...or....something going on in the north atlantic. If we were to have more blocking then the clipper option ( GFS ) would fit better especially with a flatter ridge over the Pacific as that does not allow for much digging and thus end up with a clipper instead as there is nothing to pick up the southern jet/energy. I think this goes back to what Baro said about no phase still giving decent results. Just gotta make sure nothing ends up in the south to cut off our flow of GOM moisture however limited it might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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