goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not sure what to believe! Lots of despair as expected! Lets all take a deep breath before we all get farsighted and delusional! There will be a storm, most will get some measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM coming in even drier than 12z. Baroclinic's theory about the small low may be correct... but its SO small that as it gets going the main body of precip stays really close to it... thus screwing over most of this region anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Honestly if your going to call a bust before the storm even gets going go troll elswhere. If I was a mod I would be handing out suspensions like candy on Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Glenn, any thoughts you'd like to share at this point? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Honestly if your going to call a bust before the storm even gets going go troll elswhere. If I was a mod I would be handing out suspensions like candy on Halloween. The radar is not looking good to me if you are in the Del Valley. Screaming dry slot... classic Miller B problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The primary is deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Baroclinic's theory about the small low may be correct... but its SO small that as it gets going the main body of precip stays really close to it... thus screwing over most of this region anyway. This is a worry for the folks out W. Such a compact low it will have a small precip shield if it gets too wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The radar is not looking good to me if you are in the Del Valley. Screaming dry slot... classic Miller B problem. How can you make that type of call though when you still have a relativly weak low all the way down by the carolinas though? When the system is off the Delmarva at midnight and its only snowing lightly then its time to say its a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The radar is not looking good to me if you are in the Del Valley. Screaming dry slot... classic Miller B problem. Yeah, I was seeing that too. Looks like it might be better for a time north into east central and northeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The primary is deepening. This is a horrible map to use when looking for the coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt. Holly bumbing up totals 2-4" in some spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So, basically because of one or two model runs, and a "right now its looking like poo..." radar returns, people are jumping off the deep-end? Good Lord people, settle the heck down. This thing could easily come west and surprise many of us. The storm wasn't even supposed to get going for another 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With that date I didn't necessarily mean to consider its track, just its explosive development. As for the NAM, it won't be as "consistent" as the GFS, it never will be. It isn't made to be either. The NAM is a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model, and as such, it requires much less aggressive filters. This is good and bad. Noise can creep up into the analysis and this is why the NAM can typically become garbage after 48 hours sometimes. However, as I said earlier regarding this storm, the GFS will not be able to handle it well. It isn't made to. GFS is a completely different beast, and in this case, the NAM gets far more consideration than the op GFS because of the extreme non-linear develoment and the compact nature of the low as well as effects of the deep DT and likely folding. The op GFS may be consistent, but why bother if it is consistently wrong? Fair enough. I do know the NAM is a mesoscale model but it may be right on the low placement but wrong on qpf...that's where I guess it can look inconsistent? I appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It flurried for about 10 minutes at 1:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A whole lot of rain and sleet down here, not impressed but I wasn't expecting much anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wildwood, NJ 3:45PM...rain/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wildwood, NJ 3:45PM...rain/sleet mix. That primary low over the OV needs to die, and fast. KMIV is reporting light snow, good news for the rest of New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt. Holly bumbing up totals 2-4" in some spots... wow..what are they basing this on. What model is showing those amounts for Central jersey. The 18zNAM also came in considerably drier. Why wouldnt they leave the 6-7 inch amounts there? Seems to be a very risky move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light SN KILG last 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Started snowing here about 15 minutes ago, temp is 28.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VPguy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too many snow mongers on this site....ohh ohhh look at the wetter NAM, ohh weee.... Forget looking at the models people, are there any true meteorologists left out there? This is not the Boxing Day blizzard, not even close! The southern stream and northern stream never phased, the southern stream popped its cork yesterday while the northern stream energy is 2 days behind. So we are left with the classic northern stream inland low that jumps to the coast with some kind of occluded front draped east to west across PA. Rapid deepening happens too late for most of the region and too far to the north, most of PA is gonna get dry slotted after 0.2" to 0.3" of precip falls. My guess is 2-4" for most of eastern PA, maybe 3-6" in the eastern Poconos, 4-8" in Jersey, 6-10" on Long Island and 10-20" in eastern MA and RI. Whether or not the GFS is correct is another debatable point but it has been very steady with precip production here in eastern PA with 0.30" - 0.40" for several runs in a row... Of course now that I have said this there will be 2 feet of snow in my driveway in the morning...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wow..what are they basing this on. What model is showing those amounts for Central jersey. The 18zNAM also came in considerably drier. Why wouldnt they leave the 6-7 inch amounts there? Seems to be a very risky move If you take a blend of the high res models and the 18z NAM you get numbers like those. Also current observations suggest that the low is stronger than forecasted to be at this point in time as I've been saying and alot of mets have been saying all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VPguy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Still have a few broken patches of blue in sky here in Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly 344PM update: THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF WITH THE TROF OVER THE SE THAT IS SHARPER THAN THE LATTER MODELS HAVE. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. BASED ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM ARE VERIFYING THE BEST, THE LOW IS TUCKED INTO THE COAST MUCH CLOSER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THIS IS BASED ON CARGO SHIP WDD3825 OBSERVATION. THANK-YOU OPC FOR THE INFORMATION ON THAT MOVING BUOY. THUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS WAYS THAN THE HEMISPHERIC ONES. OF COURSE EVEN LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEIR PCPN PROCESSES (QPF) WILL COME TO FRUITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Still have a few broken patches of blue in sky here in Allentown Should match the patches of green on ground tomorrow. Tee hee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too many snow mongers on this site....ohh ohhh look at the wetter NAM, ohh weee.... Forget looking at the models people, are there any true meteorologists left out there? This is not the Boxing Day blizzard, not even close! The southern stream and northern stream never phased, the southern stream popped its cork yesterday while the northern stream energy is 2 days behind. So we are left with the classic northern stream inland low that jumps to the coast with some kind of occluded front draped east to west across PA. Rapid deepening happens too late for most of the region and too far to the north, most of PA is gonna get dry slotted after 0.2" to 0.3" of precip falls. My guess is 2-4" for most of eastern PA, maybe 3-6" in the eastern Poconos, 4-8" in Jersey, 6-10" on Long Island and 10-20" in eastern MA and RI. Whether or not the GFS is correct is another debatable point but it has been very steady with precip production here in eastern PA with 0.30" - 0.40" for several runs in a row... Of course now that I have said this there will be 2 feet of snow in my driveway in the morning...haha Correcto. Also the GEM has been in the 0.25-0.45 ballpark the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone have a link to central pressure for the storm right now, SACRUS thread says 1012, but not sure how accurate it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mt Holly 344PM update: THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF WITH THE TROF OVER THE SE THAT IS SHARPER THAN THE LATTER MODELS HAVE. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. BASED ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM ARE VERIFYING THE BEST, THE LOW IS TUCKED INTO THE COAST MUCH CLOSER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THIS IS BASED ON CARGO SHIP WDD3825 OBSERVATION. THANK-YOU OPC FOR THE INFORMATION ON THAT MOVING BUOY. THUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS WAYS THAN THE HEMISPHERIC ONES. OF COURSE EVEN LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEIR PCPN PROCESSES (QPF) WILL COME TO FRUITION. AKA take the hi-res models track, not so much their qpf shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just throwing this out their....Many have noticed that a few of the high res models have been showing a second QPF maxima in SE PA and current observations indicate that the precip shield over PA is being enhanced as the low over OH becomes unwrapped. What are the chances that this could act to temporarily enchance precip over SE PA as the coastal passes by to the south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.