famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 precip shield filling nicely in western MD. I think everyone needs to unwad there shorts and breath a little. Nice steady light snow here in Lancaster and from the readings of some of the AFD's it seems like things have trended west and the hi res models are outpreforming the globals. Lets watch how it plays out and enjoy every flake. Nut The problem is that you want the coastal to be backing its precip west, not the snow from the west to be building in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The problem is that you want the coastal to be backing its precip west, not the snow from the west to be building in.... That's what i thought! If that OV low stays intact, places like Central PA and western MD will do better than PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the coastal is weaker I think it would mean a wider QPF shield... If the coastal is stronger it would mean a more compact storm and hence a more compact QPF shield... Wider, yes, but weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 March 2001 anyone???? I must admit I've had the exact same thought... especially after looking at the radar and hearing reports of rain, sleet and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone else reporting freezing drizzle in SE PA? Kind of a misty drizzle. Whats causing this? Its also 26 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't know if this has been posted but it is an interesting read. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Freezing drizzle and very light snow. Looks like upper low will provide most snow back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone else reporting freezing drizzle in SE PA? Kind of a misty drizzle. Whats causing this? The low over the OV staying fairly strong causing mid level wamth to comp. on the east and southeast side of the low. Sort of acting like a quasi lakes cutter with out going through the lakes direction. D For place further north in PA, this would make for a fairly nice over-running event if that OV low stays strong that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone else reporting freezing drizzle in SE PA? Kind of a misty drizzle. Whats causing this? probably lack of deep lift and precip is being generated in a warm layer probably around 850mb http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.6057&sounding.lon=-75.6738&prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=21&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowing nicely now. Surprised my roads are getting covered guess it's falling at the ideal time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Some people saying the 18z NAM initialized too weak. Any truth to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The problem is that you want the coastal to be backing its precip west, not the snow from the west to be building in.... I totally get that. But it seems as everyone has already given up in our area, and while we may not get the hammer that LI and SNE do, we were always on the southern fringe of appreciable amounts with this storm and with the dynamics of it. We are all still going to get something. The transfer is only starting now and within a few hours we'll know if the radar returns start to fill from east to west around the Ches. Bay. Still a nice storm given where we expected to be a month ago. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone else reporting freezing drizzle in SE PA? Kind of a misty drizzle. Whats causing this? Its also 26 degrees. Yea same over here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yea same over here too There is a warm layer around 800-850mb, temps are reaching 0c or maybe slightly above if soundings are off..I am not sure how accurate that RUC sounding at 21z is.. I am assuming its computer gernated, which means it could be off as much as 1-2c and then you would have a layer thousands of feet deep barely above freezing. Since lift is weak so far, lack of dendrites and you have light sleet or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hear the dreaded pinging outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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