weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 6z GFS is pretty darn similar to the 0z GFS with total QPF thorugh 12z Saturday except it's drier out across eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I would have just left it in the HWO...and said stay tuned. The 00z NAM is really the only model that supports warning snows there. I would never go nuts over a forecast here if the NAM was the only model showing unless I had reason to believe it such as climo (ala Dec 2008 ice storm)....but climo certainly doesn't favor NYC getting a warning event out of this. All other guidance is trending away from it...I would consider an advisory, but its not that time yet. But I'm not an NYC snow expert either...I did do a study on NYC heavy snowfall (>6") back in college though. So I kind of know what to look for when talking about warnings there. Haha, those were very few and far between back then. I remember back in the 80s, the mets always talked about how NYC was a poor location for snowstorms, as the main storm tracks usually were to the north and east (new england) or to the south (carolinas, dc, bwi) and said that NYC fell between the storm tracks and was not likely to get heavy snow like areas to the north, south, west and east were. Back then, they were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Haha, those were very few and far between back then. I remember back in the 80s, the mets always talked about how NYC was a poor location for snowstorms, as the main storm tracks usually were to the north and east (new england) or to the south (carolinas, dc, bwi) and said that NYC fell between the storm tracks and was not likely to get heavy snow like areas to the north, south, west and east were. Back then, they were right. The 1980s sucked for all of us. I experienced the worst snow drought (for 10" snowstorms in ORH) on record between the 1988-1989 and 1991-1992 winters....only time that ORH has ever gone 4 years without a 10" snowstorm. We were probably lucky to experience those winters...because we can appreciate the current winters much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS is holding pretty strong in this region and given the Euro... and what is likely to be good ratios (Brian would know better), I feel like we might very well overperform in Western NH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 1980s sucked for all of us. I experienced the worst snow drought (for 10" snowstorms in ORH) on record between the 1988-1989 and 1991-1992 winters....only time that ORH has ever gone 4 years without a 10" snowstorm. We were probably lucky to experience those winters...because we can appreciate the current winters much more. This is true and leaves me dumbfounded when people are depressed over 6 inches of snow now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nice to see more of SNE in the game now. WSW's in Southern CT. 4-8 locally more is my call for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm looking forward to his comments on my snowfall map It's way too low on amt. Way too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just caught up on the many pages of posts from last night. Really an interesting and frustrating forecast. It's great to see WSW intermixed with models of paltry qpf. Mayyhem, I tell ya! I'm confident in a few inches everywhere (perhaps some just one or two) and some decent accums in some areas. I also suspect that the most memborabe aspect of this will be not the snowfall but the challenge in forecasting it. Let the challenge continue--eager to see 09z srefs. 19.4/13 (actually up from 15.5* at 2;45a.m.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's way too low on amt. Way too low I was also told that as well with my last map for much of CT with my first map for the last storm when I had a large area of 5-9'' for the CT Valley...so then I upped it in my second call...turned out my first map which was "low" would have been pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 After perusing the overnight models it looks like the shift north to include most of SNE has occured..and many of the globals give us all a solid snowfall. I think alot of folks are underestimating this event overall. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was also told that as well with my last map for much of CT with my first map for the last storm when I had a large area of 5-9'' for the CT Valley...so then I upped it in my second call...turned out my first map which was "low" would have been pretty darn good. Hey do what you want. It's your map and your opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 When will the 09z sref's be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 did anyone post this? A bit outside its useful range but a signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 After perusing the overnight models it looks like the shift north to include most of SNE has occured..and many of the globals give us all a solid snowfall. I think alot of folks are underestimating this event overall. We'll see Kevin, I hope you are correct, but this looks like basically a widespread 2-4", maybe 3-5" jobbie. 7.1F attm. Chilly willy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 When will the 09z sref's be available? 8:40am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey do what you want. It's your map and your opinion Just like with the last storm I just get hesitant to forecast big totals unless everything seems just about perfect and there is very little spread within the models. It also doesn't help that I don't have much confidence in myself forecasting wise (for good reasons) and I don't have a great deal of knowledge in how to forecast and taking into account all the factors at hand. For this particular event I'm worried about forecasting widespread advisory to low-end warning criteria amounts just b/c this seems to be inverted trough or miss...not everyone is going to be lucky enough to get into this and the bands(s) of heavier snowfall may not be all that big...they may cover a relatively small area. Were not dealing with a GREAT deal of QPF here wither and I'm not sure how we will do ratio wise. I think we may be dealing with a short window as well of where the norlun trough is setup before it begins to weaken. It's still fairly early and that's just my first call but if the 12z runs today and the 0z runs tonight come in with less spread and are leaning towards a solution suggesting a longer impact from the norlun trough and higher amounts of QPF well then I would certainly up totals but I just want to see more model agreement on this and consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 did anyone post this? A bit outside its useful range but a signal? I approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC's graphic doesn't agree with okx watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I approve. So do I haha if that works out, Long Island wont do too badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC's graphic doesn't agree with okx watch. Thats for at least 8 inches though. I believe OKX was going with a ceiling of 7 inches for their Watch, though Im not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC's graphic doesn't agree with okx watch. How does that conflict with their watch? I think 4-8 possibility earns a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC's graphic doesn't agree with okx watch. I think the fact that weenies keep showing up on so much guidance is a sign of a huge winter......we had the 50\50 weenie on the EURO a few days ago, now a chubby straddling the Berkshires out in God's country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC's graphic doesn't agree with okx watch. That is a nice shaped penis though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats for at least 8 inches though. I believe OKX was going with a ceiling of 7 inches for their Watch, though Im not sure. Yeah I think OKX was going with a widespread 3-7'' type deal with some isolated 7-9'' totals possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats for at least 8 inches though. I believe OKX was going with a ceiling of 7 inches for their Watch, though Im not sure. Not sure if this instills a sense of agreement in the watch either. Espeiclaly when considering duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is a nice shaped penis though About to ejaculate all over me. EWWWW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is a nice shaped penis though...wish it would find my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is a nice shaped penis though Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 About to ejaculate all over me. EWWWW!!! gross, jerry. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 About to ejaculate all over me. EWWWW!!! I log on to get a more detailed discussion about the coming system and this what I find. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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