Ed Lizard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Too bad it has no room or time. Blah. GFS tries to spin it up just before it moves inland, but no room and out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Running out of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Running out of time... Yep. But I was just about to post that it's a cute little thing-- really a nice-looking disturbance. Wasted talent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 it's hard to get excited about the atlantic anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 it's hard to get excited about the atlantic anymore Can I please grieve in peace?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 I see wxmx lurking. But he's strangely silent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I see wxmx lurking. But he's strangely silent. you asked to grieve in peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 you asked to grieve in peace. Peace from your antics. I thought Jorge might bring comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 There is always Australia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 There is always Australia... not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 not so much C'mon. It's only June there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 C'mon. It's only June there. actually it's november there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 actually it's november there You know what I meant. It's their "June" in terms of tropical activity-- meaning no expectations yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 The above having been said... Australia has a weird double max in terms of intense cyclone landfalls-- with the first one occurring early in the season, in December. Some of the most memorable cyclones to hit Australia-- for example, Tracy 1974 and Joan 1975-- were December systems. January sees a relative lull, and then a second max occurs in February/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 You know what I meant. It's their "June" in terms of tropical activity-- meaning no expectations yet. If I am right about this MJO wave in December, their quiet season will be over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 If I am right about this MJO wave in December, their quiet season will be over soon. finally we can root for the maritime continent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 If I am right about this MJO wave in December, their quiet season will be over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 If I am right about this MJO wave in December, their quiet season will be over soon. Hi, HM! Please elaborate here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/82-aussie-cyclone-action-2010-2011/page__view__findpost__p__19251 I'd love to see you posting in the Aussie Cyclone thread this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Hi, HM! Please elaborate here: http://www.americanw...dpost__p__19251 I'd love to see you posting in the Aussie Cyclone thread this year. Well, I am predicting an MJO wave for early-mid December that will propagate through the Indian Ocean and Indonesia. Perhaps, initially, the response will be in the S IO but ultimately I think the S PAC will get in on the action mid or even late Dec. Think back to previous La Niña winters and some of them got started early out here...which makes sense. The warm pool has consolidated nicely and is stronger than normal, given the stronger trades have pushed the warmest water here. If the MJO wave fails, there still will be the Walker-induced convection from ENSO that could potentially get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well, it certainly appears that this tropical season was much more active than many thought it would be. Thankfully nothing hit the US. If someone could pick an analog for this past tropical season, what year most closely matches 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well, it certainly appears that this tropical season was much more active than many thought it would be. Thankfully nothing hit the US. If someone could pick an analog for this past tropical season, what year most closely matches 2010? 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 There's a new Lemon (10%) deep in the SW Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I hear it's cold out West... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I hear it's cold out West... Ugh, it's freezing. Hate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nice to see one of the first topics on Americanwx bumped up to the top. The disturbance does appear to have a decent moisture envelop in a low shear environment. We’ll see what tomorrow brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS develops it to what it looks like a TS and hits Colombia. And the 12z Euro is quite similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The convective mass and vorticity have already shifted westward from near the west coast of Colombia to western Panama in 24 hours. The upper flow favors a continued westward trajectory. All of the models aside from the GFS show the main area of vorticity shifting west into the EPac within 48 hours, so I don't see much hope for this one in the Atlantic. There will be some vorticity left behind near Colombia, but probably too close to land to do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The NHC's map of 2010 action, showing a handful of good, red-meat landfalls for MX and C America-- and lots of fish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The NHC's map of 2010 action, showing a handful of good, red-meat landfalls for MX and C America-- and lots of fish: It's crazy how similar this year was to 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The NHC's map of 2010 action, showing a handful of good, red-meat landfalls for MX and C America-- and lots of fish: Really, the only thing missing was the Gulf threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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