Cheeznado Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Screw that-- I want an 85-kt 'cane into BZ. Not out of the question..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Not out of the question..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 My name has changed. Guess who I am at euswx for prizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 My name has changed. Guess who I am at euswx for prizes. I bet Turtlehurricane. What do I win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 My name has changed. Guess who I am at euswx for prizes. You've turned into an icepussy. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Invest 94L is producing some really robust convection overnight-- probably partly because it's getting some dmax lovin'. But it's still encouraging. By the way, check out that big disturbance waaaaay E of S America. I mean, it is absurd to be looking for action anywhere E of 75W this time of year, but hey-- it's hard not to notice it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 You've turned into an icepussy. Great. Its what the North will do to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Invest 94L is producing some really robust convection overnight-- probably partly because it's getting some dmax lovin'. But it's still encouraging. By the way, check out that big disturbance waaaaay E of S America. I mean, it is absurd to be looking for action anywhere E of 75W this time of year, but hey-- it's hard not to notice it: Boy that about as far south as you can look really. If it persists and moves WNW might be something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Its what the North will do to you Yeah-- but I thought his tropical roots were strong enough to resist these corrupting influences. I'm just so disappointed. I knew Turtle from when he was just a pup. Boy that about as far south as you can look really. If it persists and moves WNW might be something to monitor. Yeah, perhaps the energy can just kind of slip under the seasonal troughs and make it to the W Caribbean-- of course, after 100-kt Virginie makes landfall in BZ. P.S. Nice to see you over here, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 You've turned into an icepussy. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I'm waiting for my prize! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah-- but I thought his tropical roots were strong enough to resist these corrupting influences. I'm just so disappointed. I knew Turtle from when he was just a pup. Yeah, perhaps the energy can just kind of slip under the seasonal troughs and make it to the W Caribbean-- of course, after 100-kt Virginie makes landfall in BZ. P.S. Nice to see you over here, by the way. Yeah I lurk about in these tropical threads, its not really my strongest suit, so i let the experts analyze and I sit back and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah I lurk about in these tropical threads, its not really my strongest suit, so i let the experts analyze and I sit back and watch. Well-- don't be shy. We're a friendly group here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Well-- don't be shy. We're a friendly group here. No I know for next year I'll bulk up on my tropical knowledge so i don't inadvertently say something dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 No I know for next year I'll bulk up on my tropical knowledge so i don't inadvertently say something dumb. Oh, hush. Just being a pro met gives you a huge leg up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Oh, hush. Just being a pro met gives you a huge leg up. Thanks, yeah I try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HECS Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 94L has been upgraded to 40% medium level for development. Conditions still seem pretty favorable for development as pretty decent and now more concentrated convection continues to persist. Virginie in 2 days anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Nice and protected, but will need to move away from Panama before some intensification can occur... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 My house, behind the Canadian front, and potential Virginie in the same satellite picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 No idea what level, but 94L has rotation apparent in satellite loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 No idea what level, but 94L has rotation apparent in satellite loops. Low level...at least the W hemisphere has the N/NW and a hint of W winds evident...in the E hemisphere the rotation is not as obvious. Deserves an upgrade...at least to 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Can somebody tell me what that little spin up is in the Eastern Pacific? It developed a really nice eye feature over the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I am a bit mystified why the GFDL and HWRF have not been run since yesterday..... 12Z Canadian and GFS move a weak low slowly towards NE Nicaragua/Honduras. Not sure why these models are not developing it much, no shear is forecast really..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 I am a bit mystified why the GFDL and HWRF have not been run since yesterday..... 12Z Canadian and GFS move a weak low slowly towards NE Nicaragua/Honduras. Not sure why these models are not developing it much, no shear is forecast really..... Yeah, it's weird. SHIPS still brings it to ~70 kt. (Woo hoo!) The 1 pm EST TWO keeps it at 40% but notes it "continues to show signs of organization". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12Z Canadian and GFS move a weak low slowly towards NE Nicaragua/Honduras. Not sure why these models are not developing it much, no shear is forecast really..... The 12Z Euro never gets it any stronger than a weak TC fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I personally don't think this is going to get much beyond a weak system but you never quite know with these systems down in the deep Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 NOUS42 KNHC 131530 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EST SAT 13 NOVEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-165 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 12.0 AND 79.0W AT 15/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 A couple of hours old, but I suspect more mid level spin and perhaps a bit further E...we'll see what tonight brings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crpeavley Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 So where is this mess going and what implications do the the track have being this late in the season...getting pretty close to WIlma, but no trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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