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Atlantic Tropical Action 2010

HurricaneJosh

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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tracy is hella overrated. had she not hit darwin she'd be indistinct from lots of other cyclones.

Well, that could be said of most notable hurricane landfalls. Heck, if Katrina hit FL's Treasure Coast as exactly the same storm, we wouldn't ever even talk about it again-- it would be another Cat 3 in FL blah blah blah.

And Tracy will always be unique as the microcane of microcanes. You won't find a 100-kt cyclone with a tighter gradient or a narrower wind field. Its dimensions alone earn it a spot in the Cyclone Hall o' Fame.

Anyhoo, I know this is a troll post, so I should just ignore it. :D

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ArtRosen

ArtRosen

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It's snowing in Australia during the Summer, there's a new cyclone in the Central Pacific and now there could be one in the Atlantic?? I think I hit my head a little bit harder than I thought I did the other day - wtf is going on with out weather? Don't abnormal weather conditions normally occur with El Nino?

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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The Mandarine's been demoted to Lemon. Blah.

In other news... I'm so eager to see the Tropical Cyclone Reports for Alex, Karl, Igor, and Richard-- i.e., the ones that had significant impact on land. I check the NHC site every day to see if any of them are published yet. They must be backlogged with the sheer number of reports they have to produce this year.

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

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The Mandarine's been demoted to Lemon. Blah.

In other news... I'm so eager to see the Tropical Cyclone Reports for Alex, Karl, Igor, and Richard-- i.e., the ones that had significant impact on land. I check the NHC site every day to see if any of them are published yet. They must be backlogged with the sheer number of reports they have to produce this year.

Prob'ly. It took them forever to finish the 2005 ones.

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  • 2 weeks later...
HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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The Mandarine's been demoted to Lemon. Blah.

In other news... I'm so eager to see the Tropical Cyclone Reports for Alex, Karl, Igor, and Richard-- i.e., the ones that had significant impact on land. I check the NHC site every day to see if any of them are published yet. They must be backlogged with the sheer number of reports they have to produce this year.

More than a week later, and no new reports have been published. :( They must have a lot of work over there. I hope some come out soon.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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i'd like to see karl upgraded to 115kts @peak

Yeah, I would like that, too. I also hope they hold it at at least 100 kt for the Veracruz landfall, so it remains the strongest known landfall in the BoC. (I think they will.) B)

P.S. I was disappointed about Hermine-- it wasn't upgraded to a 'cane. Very close-- but no cigar.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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More than a week later, and no new reports have been published. :( They must have a lot of work over there. I hope some come out soon.

I posted the link to iCyclone on my wife's Facebook page, anything I can do to help you upsize to a premium rental car while chasing in 2011. My birthday is early in March. I got the whole TVN set for Christmas, videos, a calendar, and a TVN t-shirt. Does i-Cyclone have a t-shirt? Maybe the famous "sombrero" pic?

I've been looking around, and the second year of a cold ENSO can be a good year. 1999 and 2008 come to mind.

I can't wait for HM to stop by. I was just reading his Ice Storm thread, he has changed the title, but go back to the first post of his on the thread, he sort of called for the Boxing Day snowstorm 9 days in advance. His posts sort of go over my head, the GLAAM and all that, but when he points out trends, and makes long range calls in tropical season, he tends to be good.

776px-1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

776px-2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png

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wxmx

wxmx

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While we wait for storm reports, a piece of data that might support an active 2011.

tnaweekly_Allserie_figure.png

With all of this -NAO/-AO, TNA SSTAs are climbing once more, and December will mark the 11th monthly high record (only October was 2nd to Oct 2003 by a mere 0.03°C) by almost half a degree celsius, since I think Dec will be around +1°C

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flwxwatcher45

flwxwatcher45

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While we wait for storm reports, a piece of data that might support an active 2011.

tnaweekly_Allserie_figure.png

With all of this -NAO/-AO, TNA SSTAs are climbing once more, and December will mark the 11th monthly high record (only October was 2nd to Oct 2003 by a mere 0.03°C) by almost half a degree celsius, since I think Dec will be around +1°C

Thanks for that info. It will also be interesting to see if the pattern will become more favorable for U.S. landfalling storms. We have gone 5 years now since a major hurricane hit on the U.S. and we have never gone 6 years without a major hitting the US before that I can find.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Finally we have the Tomas report...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL212010_Tomas.pdf

Yep-- I noticed.

That 77 kt (10-min) G 85 from St. Lucia is pretty cool... Although I just realized that it's a bit odd, as 77 kt (10-min) converts to over 85 kt (1-min), even when using a really conservative conversion factor-- and how can the 1-min sustained wind be higher than (or equal to) the peak gust?

I'm sorry, but that's just weird-- and it makes me call the report into question.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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I notice that the wind readings from some of these Atlantic island nations (in the Windwards, or the Bahamas, or Cuba) always seem so much higher than what we get in our landfalling 'canes-- and I used to attribute it to the fact that small islands get almost marine-exposure-type winds. But I also wonder if there's a lack of quality control as well, as sometimes the readings smell a bit fishy.

Like, that St. Lucia reading in Tomas doesn't make any sense to me-- the peak-gust value in relation to the 10-min wind-- and don't even get me started Re: that 135 kt (1-min) with a gust to 890 kt (or whatever it was) out of Cuba during Gustav.

I know I'm sounding all skeptical, but... ya kind of have to be.

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River Card

River Card

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Wondering if we get an early start tot things this year with the nina in place but then rapidly fall off as conditions turn more neutral? I like the warm waters of the Atlantic, could be an interesting Cape Verde season, but would love to see an early storm threaten Florida to get things going....last year was a complete snooze fest. Kinda liking the 2008 comparison.

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k***

k***

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I notice that the wind readings from some of these Atlantic island nations (in the Windwards, or the Bahamas, or Cuba) always seem so much higher than what we get in our landfalling 'canes-- and I used to attribute it to the fact that small islands get almost marine-exposure-type winds. But I also wonder if there's a lack of quality control as well, as sometimes the readings smell a bit fishy.

Like, that St. Lucia reading in Tomas doesn't make any sense to me-- the peak-gust value in relation to the 10-min wind-- and don't even get me started Re: that 135 kt (1-min) with a gust to 890 kt (or whatever it was) out of Cuba during Gustav.

I know I'm sounding all skeptical, but... ya kind of have to be.

that gustav gust was topographically enhanced, right? or was it a mesoscale feature? maybe both?

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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that gustav gust was topographically enhanced, right? or was it a mesoscale feature? maybe both?

I got the impression the NHC suspected something like that-- because if they perceived the reading to be 100% representative, the official (best-track) intensity for that time would be at least a little higher (as you can almost always assume that the absolute highest winds weren't sampled). I remember reading some discussion somewhere where they mentioned the factors you refer to.

As I mentioned above, I'd like to see pictures of the site where these winds were measured-- as there should have been very heavy structural/tree damage in the immediate vicinity. I would hope the WMO's inspection included not just an assessment of the measuring device, but also the surrounding area for evidence that such winds actually occurred. All the trees should have looked like sticks and most buildings should have been missing roofs at the very least (unless buildings in Paso Real de San Diego, Cuba, have state-of-the-art engineering).

One other thing that makes me suspicious: that location is a good 10 mi inland-- not on the open coast-- so that makes the 135 kt G 184 seem even more extravagant.

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