am19psu Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It's crazy how similar this year was to 1995. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Was reading Masters' blog and he seemed to think Alex, Earl, Igor and Tomas will all be retired. Personally I can't see Alex as Mexico is historically stingy when it comes to retiring names. Also damage from Alex was comparable to Emily in 2005 which was also not retired. In 50/50 on Karl for the same reason, although it probably should be retired. Igor is another toss up. Damage was a bit less than Juan (the only storm Canda has retired). I don't really have any ideas as far as benchmarks for retirement of storms that only affect the islands so don't have much of a clue on Tomas either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 lol If only winter could be similar to that year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Was reading Masters' blog and he seemed to think Alex, Earl, Igor and Tomas will all be retired. Personally I can't see Alex as Mexico is historically stingy when it comes to retiring names. Also damage from Alex was comparable to Emily in 2005 which was also not retired. In 50/50 on Karl for the same reason, although it probably should be retired. Igor is another toss up. Damage was a bit less than Juan (the only storm Canda has retired). I don't really have any ideas as far as benchmarks for retirement of storms that only affect the islands so don't have much of a clue on Tomas either. Alex will be retired, I'm sure...and in no way damage from Emily was similar to Alex's... It left a scar in Monterrey with all the damage to infrastructure here...over a billion dollars. Karl will be retired also, I'm pretty sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Karl should be a no brainer though I doubt most folks including many savvy hurricane followers understand the historical significance of that cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Karl should be a no brainer though I doubt most folks including many savvy hurricane followers understand the historical significance of that cane. Oh, hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Uneducated speculating, but maybe if 2010 was like 1995, 2011 will be like 1996 with several East Coast hits and threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The NHC's map of 2010 action, showing a handful of good, red-meat landfalls for MX and C America-- and lots of fish: Bonnie was a huge yawner and it is good to see this map exterminating Nicole @ the Cuba north coast. The only "development" from that nasty monsoon gyre .... Please erase these two along with say a Fiona and Gaston and the map is cleaned up good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=593&MediaTypeID=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 http://www.nnvl.noaa...3&MediaTypeID=1 H missing is a bit of a bummer as she was so fine for a small time Thanks so much for ignoring B, C, F, G, and N oh yeah, and S needs to be deep sixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 H missing is a bit of a bummer as she was so fine for a small time Thanks so much for ignoring B, C, F, G, and N oh yeah, and S needs to be deep sixed +10 And where is Karl labeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 +10 And where is Karl labeled? I nearly missed it but label is there ... nw outflow ftl K looks like a ugly appendage of A. Not very flattering for his uber microcaneness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Karl was my favorite of the whole year. So hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray think another active season is ahead in 2011... Information obtained through November 2010 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has the potential to be quite active. We estimate that activity will remain well above average, approximately at levels that were experienced in the average of the years between 1995-2010 that did not have El Niño conditions. We expect to see approximately 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes occur during the 2011 hurricane season. These numbers are based on the average of our statistical model, our analog model and qualitative adjustments and insights. Although there is significant uncertainty at this long lead time, we believe that El Niño conditions are unlikely, given the current upper ocean heat content anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Because we are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2011, the probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. This forecast is based on an extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect to see El Niño conditions reemerge in 2011. At this point, we are uncertain whether La Niña conditions or neutral conditions are more likely for the 2011 hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic remain at record warm levels, indicating that the active phase of the thermohaline circulation and positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation is expected to continue. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/dec2010/dec2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 wow 17/9/5...i bet they come down off of that. how many second year ninas have had 17 storms or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 wow 17/9/5...i bet they come down off of that. how many second year ninas have had 17 storms or more? How many years have 17 or more. Anyway, 1999, only 12 storms, but 4 Cat 4s, and East Coast action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hopefully 2011 will have a pos nao which will lead to a much more interesting season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 wow 17/9/5...i bet they come down off of that. how many second year ninas have had 17 storms or more? It would really depend on factors that aren't yet there...such as what the SST anomalies will look like, and if ENSO transitions to Nino during the latter part of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The analogs are just a bit interesting... 1956 1961 1989 1999 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That formatting strains my tiny brain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That formatting strains my tiny brain... Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The analogs are just a bit interesting... 1956 1961 1989 1999 2008 A couple of observations about CSU's forecast-- 1) Their statistical model is going crazy for next year. If you look at the timeseries they they have in their forecast, this is the highest forecast the model has ever provided (at least for NTC). I can't recall many times when CSU chose to go lower than the stats model. 2) I would add second year neutral or La Nina years to the list that they have. 1956 was a third year, so I'd remove it. My first list would go with 1950, 1955, 1989, 1996, 1999 and 2008. In this case, sure is an active set of years. 3) Tropical Atlantic and the AMM remain at record high levels. With the negative NAO continuing, that should likely keep things warm for at least a month or so. But, I would expect the La Nina to generally cause stronger ridges as the winter progresses. Most of those analog years were just slightly warm (or even cooler than ave) by the time hurricane season came around-- this is consistent with CFS/ECMWF forecasts of a near-normal tropical Atlantic by hurricane season. If we get another crazy negative AO/NAO, it will be interesting to see the effects. I generally concur to expect a busy year. Second year La Nina (or neutral) have tended to have slightly more US landfalls in the active era than first year events, so that could make 2011 better for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This image shows the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2010. The tracks of tropical cyclones are shown with black lines. The highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (between 28 and 32 inches or 71.1 to 81.2 centimeters) were located over the open waters of the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico. The largest rainfall totals appear in pink. This image shows the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2005. The tracks of tropical cyclones are shown with black lines. The highest tropical cyclone rainfall totals (between 28 and 32 inches or 71.1 to 81.2 centimeters) were located over the Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba and over the waters in the Atlantic off the southeastern U.S. The largest rainfall totals appear in pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 oh, well since this thread got bumped, go check out 95L...it's got a little bit of a spin to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that looks interesting it would be awesome if that forms into something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 BNT20 KNHC 202053TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL355 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILESEAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THESOUTHWESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOTCONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULDBECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEFWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PASSES OVEROR NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. THERE IS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ORNORTH WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEMWILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THELESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FUTURE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ASCONDITIONS WARRANT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BEFOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i thought it would maybe be lemoned...didnt expect that mandarin at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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