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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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That 192-216 storm is the real deal. Could be a biggie. I'm actually kinda excited about it (yes, even this far away due to Wes' thoughts, etc)...but its kinda dangerously close to...rain

Yea it's going to be rain with a 1035 hp in a perfect spot

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It really doesn't look bad for us in the RIC area. Also, despite the consistent north trend of last year, the models have seemed to have a SE trend, with a N trend in the last 72-96 hours. There is plenty of time for this to change.

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Lakes cutter, Rain south of Syracuse, heavy snow for Wisconcin Chicago. May mix with rain in Cleveland, Detroit

Final call.

Evidence: January in a La Nina Year

Evidence Against: No models showing this.

We'll see which logic is correct.

I like it... too much cold around these days! :thumbsup:

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Lakes cutter, Rain south of Syracuse, heavy snow for Wisconcin Chicago. May mix with rain in Cleveland, Detroit

Final call.

Evidence: January in a La Nina Year

Evidence Against: No models showing this.

We'll see which logic is correct.

This would be 1000% better than supressed and out to sea.

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That 192-216 storm is the real deal. Could be a biggie. I'm actually kinda excited about it (yes, even this far away due to Wes' thoughts, etc)...but its kinda dangerously close to...rain

I'd prefer it to look more suppressed so far in time but at 200 plus hours, who cares. Specifics about the storm will change many times and it's always possible that the timing will be different than forecast.

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i guess he's due to get one of these day 8-10 things right

to be fair, DT did a fine job on the 12/19 storm and should have just stuck to his original forecast for the 12/26 storm even if it wasn't perfect

personally, I think JB looked a lot worse on the 12/19 storm than anyone did on the 12/26 storm

obviously, except for the western parts of the MA, JB redeemed himself with the 12/26 storm, busting nonetheless in our back yards

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to be fair, DT did a fine job on the 12/19 storm and should have just stuck to his original forecast for the 12/26 storm even if it wasn't perfect

personally, I think JB looked a lot worse on the 12/19 storm than anyone did on the 12/26 storm

obviously, except for the western parts of the MA, JB redeemed himself with the 12/26 storm, busting nonetheless in our back yards

i dont even remember the 12/19 storm.. didnt we get sprinkles? i cant recall completely what he forecast down at the wire -- i mostly remember him woofing or code alphaing about it 8-10 days in advance. on 12/26 i agree generally.. his first guess would have been a decent spot to be in nearer the end (except around here) but then he bailed and it came back etc. everyone busted (several times even) on that storm, except perhaps where it really dumped as that was pretty apparent within 24-48 hours it would happen. dt is a fine forecaster but he is very 'loud' about everything.. sorta like jb et al. you end up with so many followers that the once in a while correct projection from a week out looks great but you have tons of noise intermixed elsewhere. at this point in my online weather career i'd rather see more caution in most cases even if it is 'boring'.

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The worst sub-forum by far. Mega-weenies abound who refuse to believe in the possibility that it may not actually snow every time a model shows. God forbid you challenge somebodies assertion that NYC or PHL will be fringed or missed.....you will get lambasted and then the mods actually jump in and impose sanctions on you. Its a disaster. Reminds me of reading the Accuweather forums before finding Eastern.

this region's thread has much open minded discussion regarding the full range of pattern and model outcomes. the nyc/phil threads are very useful for model analysis, but man some are uber-sensitive to any contrary opinion or input against best case scenarios. what gives?

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The best thing this thing really does have going for it.. is the high pressure associated with it. If the high pressure can nose in a little more than what is currently being shown on the 18z run of the gfs. Then there is a good possibility of a more classic wedge set up on the east side of the Appalachian Mountains for Va and NC.. and maybe upstate SC. :X Have not seen that type of set up in a while it seems.

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Long time reader (infrequent poster) of accuweather forums. Read about this forum over there and decided to check it out. Tapatalk support! Excellent! Looking forward to learning a lot here. I'm from the southern poconos so I felt this would be a good forum to frequent.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

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Some weird chit going on in this thread....

Buckeye thinks this storm is going to be a cutter.

It's a possibility... but it depends on how long the pv to the north east hangs on ... if it gets out of the way to fast, this storm can easily cut to t he lakes. :X

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It's a possibility... but it depends on how long the pv to the north east hangs on ... if it gets out of the way to fast, this storm can easily cut to t he lakes. :X

How classic would that be if it happened like that.....especially with all of the talk about the extreme cold coming.

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How classic would that be if it happened like that.....especially with all of the talk about the extreme cold coming.

it's best to operate under the assumption we'll get screwed until it's blatantly obvious otherwise

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