A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Seeing such drastic shifts from run to run just shows the volatility of such a pattern with so many players. From a PV dip so far south to a robust clipper/inverted trough feature signals towards how a HIgh Impact and Low Impact event are still on the table, especially the 12z GFS run moving towards last night's 0z Euro run. Yeah, its hilarious seeing people trying to microanalyze runs that we all know have an extremely low probability of verifying-- its almost like shooting fish in the barrel. Chances are one will verify but it's anyone's guess which one at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 i see a huge trough over the east with a storm off Hatteras Yeah, my fault, looked at surface and saw a broad area 1016 of the coast... My fault then looked at the h5 and saw it was in response to that trough digging in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 216 has a 1060 high in montana... 20 to 30 below zero.. under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 SLPs are >1055mb in WY and there is a Nor'easter crushing Jersey at 216 in the Euro. This is the most winter run I've ever seen. I'm laughing at my desk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z JMA.. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 222 sub 984 low just south of ack...lgt to mod precip phl to edison nj...mod precip edison to hfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 228 sub 976 low over gulf of maine...sne and nne getting hit hard....for our area 2nd storm is about a 6-12 inch storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 how much for baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 228 sub 976 low over gulf of maine...sne and nne getting hit hard....for our area 2nd storm is about a 6-12 inch storm Sounds good to me! So between the 2 storms our area gets about 10 - 16 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 how much for baltimore for 2nd storm like 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 thanks tombo and the first how a few? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 228 sub 976 low over gulf of maine...sne and nne getting hit hard....for our area 2nd storm is about a 6-12 inch storm So to Recap for the Metro the 1st storm shows 3-8 and the 2nd one shows 6-12 ? That was alot to digest that run..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 anyone else see the west coast at h5? at 222-240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 thanks tombo and the first how a few? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like the JMA came west and now gives the area a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I haven't had to chance to skim through the entire thread but what hr (or day) does the 2nd storm fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 anyone else see the west coast at h5? at 222-240? Please explain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ? I think he wants you to go have a few... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 ? the clipper on the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to clarify 1st storm = Clipper/inverted trough at hr 120 2nd = OTS at hr 162 3rd storm = Big hit at around hr 210 this is all going change by 00z, the pattern is so fragile..I think all the possible solutions are being thrown at us right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to clarify 1st storm = Clipper/inverted trough at hr 120 2nd = OTS at hr 162 3rd storm = Big hit at around hr 210 this is all going change by 00z, the pattern is so fragile..I think all the possible solutions are being thrown at us right now Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 SLPs are >1055mb in WY and there is a Nor'easter crushing Jersey at 216 in the Euro. This is the most winter run I've ever seen. I'm laughing at my desk. You werent here for last night's run were you? That was a marathon too lol. And I thought you were a tropical wx guy, but I guess this kind of pattern is like our own version of the 2005 tropical season in terms of tracking storms and potential storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the clipper on the 7th how much for what areA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 the clipper on the 7th Looks like 1 to 2 inches for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 how much for what areA? Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Just to clarify 1st storm = Clipper/inverted trough at hr 120 2nd = OTS at hr 162 3rd storm = Big hit at around hr 210 this is all going change by 00z, the pattern is so fragile..I think all the possible solutions are being thrown at us right now Yeah, and it seems #2 that was interesting people the most since they thought #1 was low likelihood. Looks like #3 is a new introduction lol. The thing to take from this is although any individual storm is a low likelihood, the fact that we see so much potential on the table makes it increasingly more likely that at least one of them should work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Looks like the JMA came west and now gives the area a nice snowfall. Yup. 1st time its showed any precip for NYC. About .50" total on today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Baltimore like 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yeah, and it seems #2 that was interesting people the most since they thought #1 was low likelihood. Looks like #3 is a new introduction lol. The thing to take from this is although any individual storm is a low likelihood, the fact that we see so much potential on the table makes it increasingly more likely that at least one of them should work out. yeah agree, pattern is ripe for multiple snow threats, but expect major waffling on the models over the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 yeah agree, pattern is ripe for multiple snow threats, but expect major waffling on the models over the next few days... Gotta say, 23" in the bank, multiple snow threats on the horizon, only early Jan, no end in sight for the general pattern, chance of keeping snow cover for a long time since Dec 26th....Im liking this winter so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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