November 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Will the giga-Nino rainy pattern ever arrive!?!?!!!?

[yoda]

12z Euro through next weekend pretty dry across the region... maybe a little rain out to i81 corridor... but it looks like less than half an inch... rain finally becomes more plentiful and widespread by Day 9 on

[frd]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

12z Euro through next weekend pretty dry across the region... maybe a little rain out to i81 corridor... but it looks like less than half an inch... rain finally becomes more plentiful and widespread by Day 9 on

Seems the pattern has been to push rain further and further out. Meanwhile mid-70s arrive again this week. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

12z Euro through next weekend pretty dry across the region... maybe a little rain out to i81 corridor... but it looks like less than half an inch... rain finally becomes more plentiful and widespread by Day 9 on

 

43 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems the pattern has been to push rain further and further out. Meanwhile mid-70s arrive again this week. 

Fluke. (not the temps though)

[AnEndlessMaze]

Something isn’t right here, we’re gonna find out ENSO is like a big horseshoe and giga Ninos behave like a strong La Nina. 

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM precip. totals for late week.

[dailylurker]

Gfs looks much better this morning. It's not just white hot over Canada like it was showing all weekend. 

[SnowenOutThere]

@psuhoffman Take a look at the latest CFS run on pivotal.

[Elim72]

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm. 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Elim72 said:

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm. 

The future is bleak for America.

[wxmeddler]

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The future is bleak for America.

The last run will be 06 UTC tonight. 

OMD has said that they have not done studies on the RRFS / REFS sensitivity to CAD wedges (and area that the NAM excels in) and just to put the icing on top. OMD has pulled the freezing rain and sleet accumulation products from the feed because it sucked so bad.
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-048_Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaf.pdf

NEW changes as of Oct 15, 2026
Updated to reflect adjustments to post-processing and product
availability within RRFS and REFS, primarily replacing a model-generated,
microphysics-based instantaneous precipitation type product with a
diagnosed thermodynamic-based precipitation type calculation, and also
removing accumulations of freezing rain and frozen rain (sleet) as output
products. These changes are in response to an over-forecasting of
freezing rain and under-forecasting of sleet within RRFS/REFS.

 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Elim72 said:

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm. 

 

 

 

That sucks. The NAM was like the fun guy that always shows up to the party already drunk and brings weed.