November 2026

[psv88]

South shore was colder last night than north shore due to very light northerly flow off the sound. Still not below freezing anywhere locally and looks to stay that way for a few weeks, so definitely a late freeze here this year 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like historic warmth for much of the month

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had historic warmth in November, especially the beginning. Let's see if the trend continues this year.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had historic warmth in November, especially the beginning. Let's see if the trend continues this year.

Certainly the first week to 10 days looks well above average. Don't need 80s to achieve this with average highs in the upper 50s now

[the_other_guy]

Coldest morning of the season thus far at 36F

[SACRUS]

54 / 37 low 60s in the warmest warm / dry through Wed with low - mid 70s on Wednesday with strong southerly flow with low to our west.  Next shot at rain Thu - Sat >1.00 most rain since 10/11.  Overall near - above normal 11/7 and beyond and wetter.  

 

[the_other_guy]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like historic warmth for much of the month

are you the same guy that predicted we’d be walking around in shorts and T-shirts for Halloween? Or was that somebody else?

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 85 (1950)
NYC: 84 (1950)
LGA: 83 (1950)
JFK: 77 (1982)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1954)
NYC: 30 (1885)
LGA: 37 (1976)
JFK: 36 (1983)


Historical:

1846: 87 pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada that piled up to 5 feet deep with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Only 47 survivors lived to tell of the 'Donner Pass Tragedy'. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

 

1848: When Joseph Henry came to the Smithsonian, one of his priorities was to set up a meteorological program. In 1847, while outlining his plan for the new institution, Henry called for "a system of extended meteorological observations for solving American storms." On November 1st, 1848, Joseph Henry and Navy meteorologist James Espy wrote a letter urging anyone interested in becoming a weather observer to signify their willingness to do so. By 1849, he had budgeted $1,000 for the Smithsonian meteorological project and established a network of some 150 volunteer weather observers. A decade later, the project had more than 600 volunteer observers, including people in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its cost in 1860 was $4,400, or thirty percent of the Smithsonian's research and publication budget. 

1861 - A hurricane near Cape Hatteras, NC, battered a Union fleet of ships attacking Carolina ports, and produced high tides and high winds in New York State and New England. (David Ludlum)

 

1870: United States Army Signal Corps observers at 24 sites around the country simultaneously made weather reports and transmitted them to Washington, where a national weather map would be drawn. These simultaneous reports also started the process of sending out weather reports by telegraph to metropolitan newspapers. This would be the beginning of our present-day National Weather Service.

 

1950: The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. Two of these dates on November 1st in 1950 and 1974.
(Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC )  Strong high pressure across the southeast ridged from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes and East Coast bringing record highs. Locations reporting all-time November record highs included: Baltimore, MD: 86°,  Newark, NJ  85 ; Philadelphia, PA: 84°, New York (Central Park), NY: 84°, Allentown, PA: 81°. Other daily record highs included: Richmond, VA: 86°, Charleston, SC: 85°, Norfolk, VA: 85°, Washington, DC: 85°, Wilmington, DE: 85°, Charlotte, NC: 84°, Asheville, NC: 83°, Lynchburg, VA: 83°, Roanoke, VA: 83°, Chicago, IL: 81°, Atlanta, GA: 81°, Pittsburgh, PA: 80°, Dayton, OH: 79°, Bristol, TN: 79°, -Tied, Elkins, WV: 77°-Tied, Buffalo, NY: 76°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1966 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - A tornado touched down west of Winslow, AZ, but did little damage in an uninhabited area. (The Weather Channel)

1974: The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. Two of these dates on November 1st in 1974 and 1950. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC )

1982: This date began a five day heat wave across much of the east as high pressure anchored off the Carolina coast bringing a south to southwesterly flow. Record highs for the date included: Corpus Christi, TX: 88°-Tied, Meridian, MS: 86°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 84°, Huntsville, AL: 83°-Tied, Cincinnati, OH: 80°, Wallops Island, VA: 79°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 77°, Milton, MA: 74°-Tied and Worcester, MA: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in central Arizona produced hail an inch in diameter at Williams and Gila Bend, and drenched Payson with 1.86 inches of rain. Hannagan Meadows AZ, meanwhile, was blanketed with three inches of snow. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs of 76 degrees at Beckley WV, 77 degrees at Bluefield WV, and 83 degrees at Lexington KY were records for the month of November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought gales and locally heavy rain to the northeastern U.S. The rainfall total of 1.46 inches at Newark NJ was a record for the date. New York City was soaked with more than two inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A strong cold front ushered snow and arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow whitened North Dakota and the Central High Plains Region. Up to five inches of snow blanketed Denver CO. Yellowstone Park WY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 4 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: The great ocean storm that had battered the East Coast of the U.S. for the past 2 days underwent a remarkable transformation. Convection grew and wrapped tightly around the center and on satellite imagery an eye formed. An Air Force reckon plane found a rather small but intense circulation near 39.5N/66.5W with a central pressure of 981 millibars or 28.97 inches mercury and sustained winds of 75 mph. Just a couple of days before, the large extratropical cyclone which contained former Hurricane Grace created havoc along the east coast. This type of evolution from a large extratropical low pressure to a small hurricane is rare but not unprecedented. The storm was never named, but it was the basis for the book and movie “The Perfect Storm”. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1993: A series of low pressure areas associated with the deep upper level trough which had been responsible for the record cold across the southern and central U.S. Over the past few days dumped big early season snows over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast. 3-day totals included 19.5 inches at Ellenburg Depot, NY, 19 inches at Mount Mansfield, VT and Sabinsville, PA, and 18.5 inches at Stillwater Reservoir, NY. The 10.3 inches that fell at Mansfield, OH and 9 inches at Burlington, VT were the greatest snowfalls ever for so early in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2000: As road crews cleared snow from highways in western North Dakota, at least 3 tornadoes touched down 125 miles away in Bismarck, ND. The F1 twisters struck without warning in the early afternoon damaging 42 homes. Tornado watches and winter storm warnings were in effect for some locations in the Dakotas at the same time on this unusual weather day. 31.9 inches of snow fell at Lead, SD to establish a new 1-day snowfall record for November. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)   heavy and persistent rains across the eastern half or the windward side of the "Big Island" of Hawaii dumped 27.24 inches of rain at the Hilo Airport in 24-hours, breaking the previous 24-hour rainfall record.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2014: Interstate 40 has reopened along the Tennessee-North Carolina state line after being closed due to weather conditions earlier today. 22 inches of snow have been recorded at Mount LeConte, 15 at Newfound Gap and 12 in Hartford,TN in an early season snowstorm. A hiker has been seriously injured by a falling tree in the Greenbrier area of the Great Smoky Mountain National Park as a winter storm dumped heavy snow in the mountains. The park service said it would take some time to evacuate the "seriously injured" hiker due to weather conditions. (Ref.News Sentinel staff 7:23 AM, Nov 1, 2014)

2014: Up to 6 inches of snow fell in Gilbert, South Carolina. 

[bluewave]

Probably one of the warmest first weeks of November on record from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. This makes sense given how extreme this El Niño event has become.

Many areas will have 10+ departures for the November 1st through 7th. I just posted in the main El Niño thread how these early SSWs in the past have been associated with the November pattern persisting through DJF.

We saw this with the early SSW last November 2025 followed by the general 500 mb pattern repeating and amplifying through DJF. So it will be interesting to see if we are getting an early winter preview this month. 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Its great to see the NAO, AO and PNA become favorable along with a PV split . There is a lag so maybe we can see colder air come down towards mid to late November.

[the_other_guy]

The upper Midwest is us in 2015-2016

 

this may be a super Niño, but this isn’t going to be the greatest warmth centered over us

 

[donsutherland1]

Unseasonable warmth will prevail through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late in the week. The potential exists for a 1.00" or greater rainfall Friday into Saturday. Behind the storm, cooler but not especially cold air will move into the region during the weekend or early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -3.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.277 today. 

 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

South shore was colder last night than north shore due to very light northerly flow off the sound. Still not below freezing anywhere locally and looks to stay that way for a few weeks, so definitely a late freeze here this year 

Islip has a good chance of approaching or setting a new latest first freeze given the record warmth for November across North America.

Latest First/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2022	03-30 (2022)	25	11-15 (2022)	29	229
1984	04-10 (1984)	30	11-15 (1984)	29	218
2016	04-10 (2016)	32	11-14 (2016)	32	217
1994	04-23 (1994)	32	11-12 (1994)	32	202
1981	04-22 (1981)	32	11-12 (1981)	31	203
1977	04-11 (1977)	32	11-12 (1977)	32	214
2005	04-17 (2005)	30	11-11 (2005)	30	207
2024	03-24 (2024)	30	11-10 (2024)	32	230
2017	03-30 (2017)	32	11-10 (2017)	26	224

[MarcmmKU]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Islip has a good chance of approaching or setting a new latest first freeze given the record warmth for November across North America.

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2022	03-30 (2022)	25	11-15 (2022)	29	229
1984	04-10 (1984)	30	11-15 (1984)	29	218
2016	04-10 (2016)	32	11-14 (2016)	32	217
1994	04-23 (1994)	32	11-12 (1994)	32	202
1981	04-22 (1981)	32	11-12 (1981)	31	203
1977	04-11 (1977)	32	11-12 (1977)	32	214
2005	04-17 (2005)	30	11-11 (2005)	30	207
2024	03-24 (2024)	30	11-10 (2024)	32	230
2017	03-30 (2017)	32	11-10 (2017)	26	224

The freaky thing is the lack of any even semblance of cold air anywhere across conus or even central and eastern Canada. It's just a total torch anywhere that's not Siberia or the high arctic right now. The snow levels with the current storm in the rockies are an absurd 11,000 ft. It's like the tropics moved to Colorado lol.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

The freaky thing is the lack of any even semblance of cold air anywhere across conus or even central and eastern Canada. It's just a total torch anywhere that's not Siberia or the high arctic right now. The snow levels with the current storm in the rockies are an absurd 11,000 ft. It's like the tropics moved to Colorado lol.

Yeah, off the charts warmth across the entire Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic leading to yet another daily global high temperature record.

 

 

[Prue11]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

South shore was colder last night than north shore due to very light northerly flow off the sound. Still not below freezing anywhere locally and looks to stay that way for a few weeks, so definitely a late freeze here this year 

I’ve been below freezing 2 times this fall but I’m right next to the pike barrens. 29.8 on 10/25